Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in December 2024. This is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was actually not a gain at all, as the December 2023 market share was 56.3% — restaurants lost about -20 basis points of market share in December 2024 year-over-year. This is the first month in which restaurant lost market share since the pandemic-affected February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.8% in December — sequentially up by +20 basis points from November’s +1.6%. This +1.8% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in December (sequentially equal to November’s +3.6%). This marks the 21st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in December 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +17.5%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.