Based on what we believe have been softer-than-expected U.S. same-store sales trends so far in fiscal Q1 2024 (calendar Q1 2023), we reduce our fiscal Q1E North American same-store sales forecast by -2 percentage points, to +5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +6.7%, although keep in mind that Starbucks does not report out its same-store sales numbers past the decimal point.
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Earlier today, Domino’s hosted an Analyst Meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan that was well-received. Shares of DPZ are up by about +2.5% intraday, as of this writing. Positives include improved (positive) U.S. delivery same-store sales so far in Q4, a 2024-28 annualized target of +3% or greater U.S. same-store sales growth (and management noting it anticipates being above the +3% mark specifically in 2024), and long-term store targets of 8,500+ for the U.S. and 40,000+ for international. Risks include operating margins that the company anticipates will be about flat next year versus 2023 levels.
McDonald’s hostied an Analyst Meeting in Chicago today. On the whole, we view the contents favorably (e.g., new unit growth targets above consensus, a greater emphasis on chicken, and digital investments that should continue to pay off nicely). The related press release that McDonald’s issued can be viewed at: