Today, McDonald’s hosted an Analyst Meeting in Illinois. As part of this, McDonald’s announces several new financial targets, including:
On July 30th, management of Yum Brands — parent company of Taco Bell — had this to say: “Taco Bell’s U.S. same-store sales growth quarter-to-date through July 27 is negative 2%. Since the U.S. food safety industry issue became front and center only two weeks ago, we saw maximum impact to sales over the weekend of July 18. It is early days, but in the subsequent week, sales declines have moderated materially and we are seeing steady improvement in day-over-day sales trends.”
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to -1.7%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2026 is at +29.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 57.7% in August 2026. This 57.7% figure is a new all-time monthly record in favor of the restaurant industry.
With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to -0.7%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2026 is at +47.1%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.2% in August — sequentially -50 basis points lower than July’s +2.7%. This +2.2% number for August compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in August (sequentially identical to July’s +3.4%). This marks the 41st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.