Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.7% in April 2026, -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 57.0% set in February 2026.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.9% in April — sequentially up by +100 basis points since March’s +1.9%. This +2.9% number for April compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -20 basis points from March’s +3.8%). This marks the 37th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Earlier today (Friday, May 8th), Wendy’s reported adjusted first-quarter EPS of $0.12. This exceeded our $0.09 forecast, and was ahead of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.10.
Earlier today (Thursday, May 7th), Papa Johns reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.32. This was short of our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37.
Earlier today (Thursday, May 7th), McDonald’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $2.83. This was above our $2.75 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.75. The Q1 adjusted tax rate — which appears to have been about 22.0% — was more favorable than our 23.0% forecast and consensus of 22.5%. By our math, the difference between the 21.6% adjusted tax rate and consensus helped McDonald’s Q1 adjusted EPS by about +3 cents. Currencies helped Q1 EPS by +13 cents. This was actually a little lower than our expectation in the +15 to +17 cent range.
Earlier today (Wednesday, May 6th), Dine Brands initially reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.07. HOWEVER, several hours later, the company — in a Form 8K/A — indicated that “due to an inadvertent error, adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2026 was reported as $13.5 million and adjusted earnings per diluted share was reported as $1.07. The correct adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2026 is $11.1 million and the correct adjusted earnings per diluted share is $0.88.”