Coverage

All Reports:

McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: Adjusting Our Forecasts; Would the Straw Hat Pirates Approve?

Back on August 4th, McDonald’s management commented that “In late April, we augmented our McValue program with a new under $3 Every Day Affordable Price or EDAP menu…. We also added a $4 Breakfast Meal Deal. Inconsistent restaurant level execution of the EDAP menu and consumer awareness levels below target resulted in lower incrementality than we expected. At the same time, the business pulled back on digital offers and removed our Buy One, Add One for $1 feature to offset the investment behind McValue. In combination, all of these factors negatively impacted visits from some of our most loyal customers. We estimate that these value execution factors accounted for about 2/3 of the customer traffic underperformance relative to our expectations for the quarter. The remainder of our underperformance can largely be attributed to our FIFA campaign in June. While the campaign provided a lift to the business and generated excellent system excitement, the campaign underperformed versus our expectations.”

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants: Price Inflation Gap Relative to Food-At-Home Remains Near the 24-Year Historical Average

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in July — sequentially the same as June’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for July compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in July (sequentially identical to June’s +3.4%). This marks the 40th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

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Wendy's (WEN)
Mark Kalinowski

WEN (Post-Call): Cooking Up a Full Strategic Plan

Earlier today (Friday, August 7th), Wendy’s reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.18, coming in ahead of our $0.17 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) at $0.16. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $124.1 million. This was a little above our $123.3 million forecast, and also above consensus of $121.1 million.

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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
Mark Kalinowski

PZZA (Post-Call): Slices Some Key Targets for 2026

Earlier today (Thursday, August 6th), Papa Johns reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.46, coming in above our $0.35 forecast, and slightly above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.45. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $53 million; consensus was at $53.8 million.

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