Earlier this month, we published reports in which we examined McDonald’s and Yum Brands, and the effect various currencies can have on those companies’ quarterly EPS/operating income. Those reports are available at:
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to +2.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -28.2% number from Q3 2020, the +40.3% figure from Q3 2021, and the +3.9% number from Q3 2022. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2023 is at +6.8%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +3.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.1% figure from Q3 2020, +13.9% number from Q3 2021, and the +6.1% figure from Q3 2022. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2023 is at +31.9%. This +31.8% figure is one of the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early September.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.1% in August 2023. This is tied for the best-ever monthly market-share showing for the U.S. restaurant industry, and marks the third month in a row at that percentage. The strong August percentage shows that, despite restaurant prices gaining steam at a more meaningful rate than grocery prices as of late, consumers have – at least through the end of August – not meaningfully shifted food dollars back to grocery stores and supermarkets.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +3.0% in August (sequentially down by -60 basis points from July’s +3.6%). This +3.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +6.5% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -60 basis points from July’s +7.1%). This marks the 6th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.
Restaurant Business reports that “Representatives of the restaurant and franchise businesses have secured an agreement to kill California’s controversial Fast Act in exchange for accepting one of the law’s most contentious provisions, the creation of a panel to set wages and working conditions for California fast-food restaurants. The agreement also calls for shelving a legislative proposal currently under consideration that would have held restaurant franchisors accountable for the employment policies and practices of their franchisees, a measure blasted as an existential threat to restaurant franchising. The call for legislating a joint-employer standard is contained in a pending piece of legislation, AB 1228. The joint-employer provision would be killed, and the bill would be amended to include the various provisions of the new pact between industry, organized labor and pro-labor members of California’s legislature.”