Coverage

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in August 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +0.9% in August — sequentially down by -20 basis points from July’s +1.1%. This +0.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -10 basis points from July’s +4.1%). This marks the 18th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

We have published four reports in recent days looking at various domestic same-store sales correlations for large restaurant concepts within their sector. However, this report looks at Taco Bell – by quite a wide margin, the largest concept in the Quick-Service Other space as we define it, via nearly $15.0 billion in 2023 U.S. systemwide sales – and compares its same-store sales with those of several quick-service and fast-casual concepts regardless of sector. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Taco Bell?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for Olive Garden, Texas Roadhouse, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback Steakhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory – six of the seven largest casual dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When The Cheesecake Factory’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Applebee’s?”