After today’s (Wednesday’s) market close, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported that its Q2 adjusted EPS reached $0.34. This came in two cents ahead of our $0.32 forecast as well as sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.32.
McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, July 29th. Today we publish part two of two of the July 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the value-oriented “burger wars” – including the $5 Meal Deal that McDonald’s rolled out nationwide back in late June.
McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, July 29th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.
Earlier today, Domino’s reported Q2 EPS of $4.03. Technically, this was ahead of our $3.70 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.68. BUT…
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in June 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 56.2% figure is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +60 basis points year-over-year. This is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain attained in July 2022.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2024 to +1.8%. This is the second-lowest quarterly showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Excluding last quarter’s (Q1 2024’s) +0.9% result, and looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q2 2024 was. Clearly, some meaningful portion of consumers are modifying their restaurant spending habits. Multiple large restaurant companies have indicated that consumers from lower-income households, in particular, are becoming more conservative in their approach to restaurants.