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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Leads to Updated Forecasts

McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, April 29th, to be followed that day by the related earnings release conference call. For Q1E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +12.2%, which lies +190 basis points above current sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +10.3%. Our Q1E EPS estimate remains at $1.86, five cents above consensus of $1.81.

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April 22, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Restaurants: BlackBox Index Up on a Two-Year Basis for March 2021

Earlier today (Thursday, April 15th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for March 2021 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +1.8%, with two-year traffic off by -9.4%. The +1.8% two-year number implies a one-year March 2021 figure of about +42%. This +42% figure is the first positive month for the BlackBox Index since February 2020’s +0.3%. We also calculate that two-year traffic is down

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April 15, 2021 No Comments
YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
MarK Kalinowski

YUM: How Does Yum Brands Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

Yum Brands plans to release its Q1 2021 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, April 28th. How do YUM shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from Yum Brands, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1)

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April 15, 2021 No Comments
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
MarK Kalinowski

SBUX: How Does Starbucks Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

Starbucks plans to release its fiscal Q2 (calendar Q1) 2021 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, April 27th. How do SBUX shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day after an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from Starbucks, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the scheduled earnings

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April 14, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1E to +7.1%. This is the first positive quarter since Q4 2019’s +4.2% showing. The Q1 2020/21 two-year number works out to +3.5%. (The Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index declined by -3.4% in Q1 2020, followed by its worst-ever performanceof -17.5% in Q2 2020.) For Q1 2021, all four of our limited-service (quick-service and fast-casual) indices are in positive territory, while all three of

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April 13, 2021 No Comments