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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2E to +11.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.5% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2E is at +13.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June. As a reminder, we define “quick-service other” as all quick-service, excluding

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June 17, 2021 No Comments
YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

With this report, we boost our Q2E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +2 percentage points to +17% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +15.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +3% (consensus is at +2.5%). This better-than-expected sales momentum causes us to raise our full-year

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June 16, 2021 No Comments
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
Mark Kalinowski

PZZA: The Bull and Bear Cases on Papa John’s

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $101.83). While we maintain our Buy rating on PZZA — it continues to be our top small/mid-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in PZZA to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is. Key parts of the bullish point of view are: (1) same-store

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June 14, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2E to +204.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -64.3% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2E is at +8.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June. Fine dining same-store sales have typically lagged those of casual dining

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June 11, 2021 No Comments
McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Kalinowski Test

Test 3

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Donec efficitur sodales tellus, et hendrerit nunc viverra vitae. Donec eget justo rutrum, lobortis orci vitae, fringilla lacus. In hac habitasse platea dictumst. Quisque vel pharetra purus. Vivamus vitae felis gravida nulla faucibus varius. Vivamus id porttitor nisl. Vestibulum lacus neque, aliquam id sapien a, ultricies ultricies risus. Phasellus enim augue, semper eu lacinia ut, lacinia quis augue. Cras nec magna fringilla, laoreet ligula eu, bibendum magna.

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June 9, 2021 No Comments
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
MarK Kalinowski

PZZA: Sometimes Dough Rises, Sometimes EPS Estimates Do Too

Based on Papa John’s recent announcement that it will repurchase/convert all the convertible preferred stock owned by a strategic investor, we raise our full-year 2021E EPS estimate by +15 cents, to $3.00. And, based on this higher anticipated base of earnings coming off of this year — as well as net EPS benefits from the repurchase/conversion in Q1 2022 and the first half of Q2 2022, that did not accrue in Q1 2021 and the

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May 27, 2021 No Comments