Menu

Coverage

All Reports:
Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
Mark Kalinowski

SBUX: Updating Our Forecasts, and…

Based on what we believe have been softer-than-expected U.S. same-store sales trends so far in fiscal Q1 2024 (calendar Q1 2023), we reduce our fiscal Q1E North American same-store sales forecast by -2 percentage points, to +5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +6.7%, although keep in mind that Starbucks does not report out its same-store sales numbers past the decimal point.

Read More »
December 11, 2023 No Comments
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Mark Kalinowski

DPZ: Analyst Meeting Showcases Domino’s Targeting More

Earlier today, Domino’s hosted an Analyst Meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan that was well-received. Shares of DPZ are up by about +2.5% intraday, as of this writing. Positives include improved (positive) U.S. delivery same-store sales so far in Q4, a 2024-28 annualized target of +3% or greater U.S. same-store sales growth (and management noting it anticipates being above the +3% mark specifically in 2024), and long-term store targets of 8,500+ for the U.S. and 40,000+ for international. Risks include operating margins that the company anticipates will be about flat next year versus 2023 levels.

Read More »
December 7, 2023 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/30/2023)

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2023 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2023 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Read More »
November 30, 2023 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants: Latest Black Box Index Shows Sequential Improvement

Black Box Intelligence has released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts. Black Box notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

Read More »
November 27, 2023 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/21/2023)

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2023 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2023 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Read More »
November 21, 2023 No Comments