McDonald's Corp (MCD)
MCD: Updating Our Q4E U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast
Based on our channel checks, we adjust our Q4E McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast.
December 7, 2021
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Based on our channel checks, we adjust our Q4E McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast.
November 2021 was the 8th full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service (and particularly so for the quick-service burger segment). To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that
Papa Johns latest test menu item has appeared in multiple states. Under Rob Lynch — named CEO of Papa Johns in late August 2019 — menu innovation has been much greater, with Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas and Papadias examples of that. Looking ahead, will most of Papa Johns forthcoming U.S. menu innovation center around pizzas, or non-pizza menu items? VP of Investor Relations & Strategy Steve Coke recently told us to “Expect a healthy blend of both.
We have looked at several restaurant stocks’ historical valuations over 2015-19 (leaving out 2020 due to that year’s highly unusual nature), and examined what these valuations may imply about the future for these stocks. (We have never viewed valuation as the be-all and end-all of investing, but it is one of several tools in our analyst kit.) We examined the 2015-19 historical enterprise value-to-EBITDA valuations for these stocks — specifically, the average valuation over this
Recently, McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) all reported their Q3 2021 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2021 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks. For Q3 2021, U.S. same-store sales rose by +9.6% for McDonald’s, and by +2.1%