Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2026 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2026 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King each recently reported their Q1 2026 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2026 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.7% in April 2026, -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 57.0% set in February 2026.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.9% in April — sequentially up by +100 basis points since March’s +1.9%. This +2.9% number for April compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -20 basis points from March’s +3.8%). This marks the 37th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Earlier today (Friday, May 8th), Wendy’s reported adjusted first-quarter EPS of $0.12. This exceeded our $0.09 forecast, and was ahead of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.10.
Earlier today (Thursday, May 7th), Papa Johns reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.32. This was short of our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37.