McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

McDonald’s hostied an Analyst Meeting in Chicago today. On the whole, we view the contents favorably (e.g., new unit growth targets above consensus, a greater emphasis on chicken, and digital investments that should continue to pay off nicely). The related press release that McDonald’s issued can be viewed at:

Following the October 7th acts of war by Hamas that included the murders of 1,400+ individuals in Israel, the official Twitter** account of McDonald’s Israel commented multiple times that it has provided free meals to members of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). For example, McDonald’s Israel tweeted** on October 17th that “From the first day of the war, McDonald’s Israel has donated 100,000 meals to the IDF, security forces, hospitals, and the residents of the surrounding area.” (translated from Hebrew)

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $3.19, surpassing our $3.06 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.01.

Today we publish part two of two of the October 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines California’s AB 1228, recently signed into law:

McDonald’s plans to release its third-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, October 30th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two either later this week or early next week.

Back on September 5th, we published a report looking at some recent currency-translation effects on McDonald’s quarterly EPS. That report included our formula for projection the currency effect on a given quarter’s EPS, and is available at:

Back on May 23rd, we published a report in which we looked at the breakdown of McDonald’s full-year 2023E operating income by geography. That report can be accessed at:

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.17, nicely above our $2.82 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.79.

Today we publish part two of two of the July 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether our franchisee respondents would like to sell Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) doughnuts in their own McDonald’s restaurants. As a reminder, back on June 29th, we published a report in which we indicated that we believe the 160 McDonald’s restaurants in Kentucky testing the sale of Krispy Kreme doughnuts in those restaurants are seeing average weekly sales of 800-900 doughnuts per restaurant. In addition, those sales appear to be highly incremental. Furthermore, an argument can be made that the sales of the Krispy Kreme doughnuts are helping to drive incremental sales of some non-doughnut menu items. For more info:

Today we publish part two of two of the July 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether our franchisee respondents would like to sell Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) doughnuts in their own McDonald’s restaurants. As a reminder, back on June 29th, we published a report in which we indicated that we believe the 160 McDonald’s restaurants in Kentucky testing the sale of Krispy Kreme doughnuts in those restaurants are seeing average weekly sales of 800-900 doughnuts per restaurant. In addition, those sales appear to be highly incremental. Furthermore, an argument can be made that the sales of the Krispy Kreme doughnuts are helping to drive incremental sales of some non-doughnut menu items. For more info:

McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Thursday, July 27th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two later this week.

On February 27th, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KREM; Not Rated) announced that “McDonald’s is bringing Krispy Kreme doughnuts to even more local restaurants with an expanded market test. Starting March 21, we’ll be serving three Krispy Kreme fan faves – the Original Glazed Doughnut, the Chocolate Iced with Sprinkles Doughnut and the Chocolate Iced Kreme Filled Doughnut – at approximately 160 locations across Louisville, Lexington and the surrounding area. The expanded test will help us learn more about operational impact on a larger scale as well as explore customer demand. And this time around, there are even more ways for fans to satisfy their Krispy Kreme craving, with doughnuts available all day in-restaurant, at the Drive Thru, via McDelivery and on the McDonald’s App.” For more info:

McDonald’s enjoyed a solid Q1 in a lot of respects, including generating +12.6% same-store sales growth in the U.S. market. On its April 25th conference call, management noted that “as far as outlook for the business, we remain very confident about how we’re positioned. We remain confident, as I said in our press release. The demand, the consumer demand for our brand remains strong. So there’s no change from our perspective in terms of how we’re feeling about rest of the year. Certainly we have, in quarter one, the benefit of lapping Omicron, and the whole industry does. We also, as I mentioned in our last call, had more favorable weather in January. So we had some things going on in January that, from an industry standpoint, made this an easier compare. But our outlook for the rest of the year, we expect to continue taking share. We’ve been taking share pretty consistently now for several years. Our outlook is we’re going to continue to take share through the balance of 2023.”

Back in March, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) solicited comments from the public – including franchisees – regarding “Provisions of Franchise Agreements and Franchisor Business Practices.” At the time, the FTC noted that:

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2022E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $11.386 billion.

McDonald’s was headquartered in a suburb of Chicago — Oak Brook — from 1971-2018. For most of that time, the site within Oak Brook that served as McDonald’s headquarters was the 80-acre McDonald’s campus. In 2018, McDonald’s moved its headquarters from Oak Brook to Chicago – more specifically, 110 North Carpenter Street. That site is part of Chicago’s Near West Side neighborhood. (The former McDonald’s campus in Oak Brook is becoming the new headquarters for Ace Hardware.)

Earlier this morning, McDonald’s reported its Q1 adjusted EPS amounted to $2.63, meaningfully above our $2.40 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.33. We calculate that the adjusted tax rate came to 19.4%, which was more favorable than our 21.0% estimate and consensus of 21.0%. By our math, the more favorable tax rate added about +5 cents to adjusted EPS, relative to our estimate.

Today we publish part two of two of the April 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether McDonald’s U.S. should launch a Chicken Big Mac nationwide, or not. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

Today we publish part two of two of the April 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether McDonald’s U.S. should launch a Chicken Big Mac nationwide, or not. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, April 25th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two later this week.

Back on February 20th, we raised some of our same-store sales and EPS estimates for McDonald’s, based on what appeared to have been very good domestic same-store sales trends for January and the beginning of February, helped by factors such as favorable year-over-year weather, and lapping the Omicron variant of Covid.

Along with much of the U.S. restaurant industry, McDonald’s likely enjoyed an outstanding January in terms of U.S. same-store sales, helped by various factors including (1) favorable year-over-year weather, and (2) lapping Omicron.

McDonald’s has enjoyed numerous, sizable successes over the decades. Nevertheless, our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey has – for numerous years – highlighted that at times, relations between McDonald’s corporate and the U.S. franchisee base can be strained. Of course, we are not the only sources of such info highlighting franchisee discontent — and even anger.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q4 EPS of $2.59, ahead of our $2.48 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.46. Factors helping EPS in Q4 included robust same-store sales, higher-than-expected nonoperating income, and a more favorable tax rate than anticipated. On the other hand, SG&A/Revenues came in higher (worse) than expected.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the January 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as to the “Best Burger” (a.k.a. “Better Burger”) initiative – involving cooking with smaller batches of beef patties, adding onions while the burgers are on the grill, etc. — that McDonald’s is implementing in the U.S. over the first six months of the year. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q4 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, January 31st. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. (Look for part two, which will discuss franchisees’ views about the “Best Burger” initiative, later this week.)

With this note, we update some of our same-store sales and EPS projections for McDonald’s. Factors driving these updates include:

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q3 EPS of $2.68, ahead of our $2.62 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.58.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the October 2022 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as to how sales trends might fare should. There be a recession for part or all of 2023. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q3 earnings before the market open on Thursday, October 27th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. (Look for part two, which will discuss McDonald’s potential sales performance in a possible 2023 recession, either later this week or early next week.)

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2022E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $10.543 billion.

There are multiple potential positives regarding McDonald’s U.S. business that the Street may not be currently appreciating. For example, McDonald’s reported its Q2 earnings on July 26th, but did not quantify (or otherwise meaningfully comment on) July same-store sales trends at that time. Subsequent to that date, though, Wendy’s (WEN; Buy, $21.40) noted on its August 10th conference call that “we expect a significant step-up in one-year same-restaurant sales in the back half of the year, and our results through July are accelerating as planned.” In addition, on August 11th, the largest Burger King franchisee in the U.S., Carrols (TAST; Not Rated) – which operates over 1,000 Burger King restaurants – remarked that “During the second quarter, comparable restaurant sales at our Burger King restaurants increased 2.8% against a robust 12.6% comparison from the prior year period. The monthly sales trend demonstrated building momentum, with negative comparable restaurant sales in April as we lapped the end of the stimulus payments benefit, followed by mid-single digit growth in both May and June which has extended into July.” We believe that these trends are indicative of a good July for the U.S. quick-service burger sector in general, including segment leader McDonald’s (which we believe outperformed the sector to some degree).

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.55, in between our $2.60 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.47. Excluding one-time items, the Q2 adjusted tax rate was 18.7%, more favorable than our 21.0% projection and consensus of 20.8%. We calculate that Q2 EPS was helped by the more favorable-than-expected tax rate by about +6 cents, relative to consensus.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the July 2022 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as regards their relationship with corporate. This is in the context of The Wall Street Journal reporting on June 23rd that “McDonald’s Corp. is planning to make some of the biggest changes in decades to the franchising system that underpins its U.S. operations, as it seeks to reinvigorate its base of restaurant owners. Executives this week notified the burger chain’s franchisees that they will have to go through a more stringent review every 20 years to keep their restaurants…. McDonald’s will consider new factors, like performance history, as it asks owners to apply to keep their locations. The company will consider new factors, such as customer complaints, to determine which McDonald’s franchisees can add new locations. In a shift that could affect some of the chain’s longest-tenured restaurant operators, McDonald’s is also requiring that some next-generation heirs put up more cash to keep operating their locations — and to designate a single family member as the operator…. McDonald’s anticipates it will begin to implement the franchising changes next January.” For more info:

McDonald’s plans to release its Q2 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, July 26th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported better-than-expected Q1 results. First-quarter adjusted EPS amounted to $2.28, ahead of our $2.09 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.17.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the April 2022 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as regards market-share trends and opportunities over the next 3-5 years. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, April 28th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

McDonald’s plans to report its first-quarter earnings before the market open on Thursday, April 28th. Ahead of that, we retain our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast of +3.0%.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $2.23, falling short of our $2.35 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.33 We attribute the EPS shortfall largely to: (1) tax rate (we calculate that the adjusted tax rate was about 23.8%, higher than our 21.0% projection and consensus of 21.0%), and (2) SG&A/Revenues of 14.0%, versus our 13.2% forecast and consensus of 13.1%. Management says that part of this higher SG&A was driven by performance-driven compensation expense, as results for 2021 exceeded plans.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the January 2022 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as regards the MyMcDonald’s Rewards loyalty program (rolled out nationwide in the U.S. in early July 2021), and also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic that is at the forefront of their minds.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q4 earnings before the market open this Thursday (January 27th). Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

Based on our channel checks, we adjust our Q4E McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.76, well above our $2.43 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.46. Factors driving the outperformance include: (1) better-than-expected same-store sales across the board, (2) about +9 cents worth’ of tax help relative to our 22.0% tax-rate projection, and (3) more favorable than anticipated margins on the franchised side of the business.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the October 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on how sales are going at present for the new-and-improved chicken sandwiches that McDonald’s launched in mid-Q1.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q3 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, October 27th. For Q3E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +8.5%. According to Consensus Metrix data (as of this writing), sell-side consensus is at +8.2%.

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2021E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $9.863 billion.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.37, ahead of our $2.13 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.12. Currencies helped Q2 EPS by +13 cents. Management looks for Q3 EPS to be helped by about +3 to +5 cents due to favorable currencies. The full-year outlook is +20 to +22 cents, suggesting perhaps a -2 cent hit to Q4 EPS.

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the July 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on challenges around labor availability.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q2 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, July 28th. For Q2E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +24.3%. According to Consensus Metrix data, sell-side consensus has drifted upward in recent days to +24.0% — nearly coming to equal the Q2E projection we went to this past April 22nd.