Recent Posts

MCD (Post-Call): Why Do Hamburgers Go to the Gym? To Get Better Buns

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.76, well above our $2.43 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.46. Factors driving the outperformance include: (1) better-than-expected same-store sales across the board, (2) about +9 cents worth’ of tax help relative to our 22.0% tax-rate projection, and (3) more favorable than anticipated margins on the franchised side of the business. Closely-watched U.S. same-store sales rose by +9.6% in Q3, coming in ahead […]

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9:43 AM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Part 2 Focuses on Crispy Chicken Sandwiches

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the October 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on how sales are going at present for the new-and-improved chicken sandwiches that McDonald’s launched in mid-Q1. Back in April 2021, during that iteration of our McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we asked our franchisee respondents how many of the new-and-improved chicken sandwiches they were selling daily at their restaurants. At that time — […]

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7:00 AM

MCD: Latest McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Shows Relations with Franchisees Mending

McDonald’s plans to release its Q3 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, October 27th. For Q3E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +8.5%. According to Consensus Metrix data (as of this writing), sell-side consensus is at +8.2%. Our Q3E EPS estimate remains at $2.43. This is below consensus of $2.47, reflecting what we believe to have been sales challenges in China, rising commodity costs, and challenging wage inflation (in an […]

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7:00 AM

MCD: McDonald’s Top 25 Markets for 2021E Operating Profits

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2021E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $9.863 billion. As it turns out, we anticipate that about 44% of this year’s operating income will come from the U.S., with no other single market accounting for as much as 7% of anticipated 2021E operating income. This helps to explain why U.S. same-store sales trends are so closely watched by investors. In any case, […]

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7:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call): Best Two-Year U.S. Same-Store Sales Since Q1 2005

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.37, ahead of our $2.13 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.12. Currencies helped Q2 EPS by +13 cents. Management looks for Q3 EPS to be helped by about +3 to +5 cents due to favorable currencies. The full-year outlook is +20 to +22 cents, suggesting perhaps a -2 cent hit to Q4 EPS. Closely-watched U.S. same-store sales soared by +25.9%, topping our +24.3% […]

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9:45 AM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Part 2 Focuses on Labor Availability

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the July 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on challenges around labor availability. We asked our franchisee respondents “By what percent (if any) were your stores’ sales hampered by lack of labor availability?” The responses were quite surprising to us, with — of the 20+ respondents — the average coming out to -9.5 percentage points, and the median working out […]

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4:31 PM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Leads to Updated Estimates

McDonald’s plans to release its Q2 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, July 28th. For Q2E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +24.3%. According to Consensus Metrix data, sell-side consensus has drifted upward in recent days to +24.0% — nearly coming to equal the Q2E projection we went to this past April 22nd. However, with this note we do raise our Q2E same-store sales forecasts for McDonald’s International Operated Markets […]

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5:21 PM

DPZ: Could the Long-Term Unit Outlook be More than the Street Expects?

Are signs starting to emerge that Domino’s long-term worldwide unit growth potential could be meaningfully higher than the Street currently believes? On June 24th, Australia-based master franchisee Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP.AU; Not Rated) stated that “Less than 12 months after opening the market’s 700th store, Domino’s Pizza Japan has set another record, opening 126 stores in one year, 10 in one day, and the 800th for the market. The milestone is a record for Domino’s […]

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4:21 PM

MCD (Post-Call): Robust Results Across the McBoard

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.92, above our $1.86 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.82. The EPS outperformance was driven by better-than-expected same-store sales in each of McDonald’s three major business segments. Closely-watched U.S. same-store sales rose by +13.6% in Q1 — surpassing our +12.2% estimate and consensus of +10.4%. Our Q2E U.S. same-store sales forecast of +24.3% remains the “sell-side high” forecast as of this writing. Consensus […]

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1:10 PM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Focuses on Crispy Chicken Sandwiches

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the April 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on how sales are going so far for the new-and-improved chicken sandwiches that were launched in mid-Q1. Our franchisee respondents indicate that, in aggregate, their average restaurant is selling about 262 chicken sandwiches per day. While we would expect this number to go down by roughly one-third when national advertising isn’t focused […]

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5:51 PM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Leads to Updated Forecasts

McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, April 29th, to be followed that day by the related earnings release conference call. For Q1E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +12.2%, which lies +190 basis points above current sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +10.3%. Our Q1E EPS estimate remains at $1.86, five cents above consensus of $1.81.

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11:42 AM

MCD: How Does McDonald’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

McDonald’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in late April. How do MCD shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from McDonald’s, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the scheduled earnings release, and (2) the day of the earnings […]

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4:46 PM

MCD: Raising our Q1E U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast to the Sell-Side High

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s by +190 basis points, to +12.2%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +9.7%. During its January 28th conference call, McDonald’s stated that “Turning to January trends, in the U.S., sales comps continue to be strong and are expected to be up high-single digits, with continued growth across all dayparts […]

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4:58 PM

MCD: The Bull and Bear Cases on McDonald’s

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy, $220.46). While we maintain our Buy rating on MCD — it continues to be our top large-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in MCD to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is. Key parts of the bullish point of view are: (1) benefits from […]

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4:49 PM

MCD (Post-Call): Updating Our 2021E & 2022E EPS Projections

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported $1.70 in adjusted Q4 EPS, lower than our $1.72 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.77. Fourth-quarter Company-Operated Restaurant Expenses/Sales by CompanyOperated Restaurants came in at 85.2%, worse than our 82.8% estimate. McDonald’s remarks that there were “Higher restaurant closing costs for the quarter and year of $30 million and $68 million, respectively, in both the International Operated Markets and in the U.S. The U.S. costs were primarily […]

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4:14 PM

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Examines Franchisee & Corporate Relations

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the January 2021 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on relations between U.S. franchisees and corporate. As we noted in the part 1 report published late last week, we asked our franchisee respondents to quantify the current relationship between franchisees and McDonald’s Corporation, using a scale of one to five, with 1=Poor and 5=Excellent. The average response we received was 1.41 […]

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3:15 PM

Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E to +4.5%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. While we believe that sector same-store sales were fairly similar in each of these three months, it appears that November was the best of the three, and December the worst of the three, although all three ended up […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Updating Our Forecasts

With this report, we lower our Q4E 2020 EPS estimate for McDonald’s by -24 cents, to $1.72. Our change reflects two factors: (1) reductions in our Q4E samestore sales forecasts for both the International Operated Markets and International Developmental Licensed Markets business segments, and (2) what we believe is an improved understanding of G&A expenses slated for Q4 (leading us to bump up our Q4E G&A projection to about $755 million. In terms of Q4E […]

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12:00 AM

Restaurants Full-Service Same-Store Sales Decelerating So Far in November

Based on our data-driven checks, we believe that same-store sales for U.S. chain restaurants in the casual dining, family dining, and fine dining segments are all showing sequential deceleration for the first half of November relative to fullOctober. This new trend follows 5-6 consecutive months of either sequentially improving full-service same-store sales (or at least not meaningfully deteriorating sequential same-store sales). For U.S. chain casual dining, first half of November same-store sales appear to be […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Let’s See Just How “Speedee” These Arches Can Accelerate

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $2.22, ahead of our $1.92 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.92. Currencies helped Q3 EPS by +3 cents. Factors that drive the EPS beat include: (1) better-than-expected company-level restaurant operating margins (17.9% actual vs. 15.8% projected), a favorable tax rate (20.5% actual vs. our 24.0% estimate), and (3) better-than-expected SG&A/Revenues (9.8% actual vs. our 10.4% forecast). Management comments that October U.S. same-store sales […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Part 2 of McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Focuses on Breakfast

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on the breakfast daypart, which has lagged behind in recovery over the last 3-5 months not just for McDonald’s, but for the restaurant industry in general. We asked our McDonald’s franchisee respondents to name the restaurant concept that they view as their most significant competitor during the breakfast daypart. While privately-held Chick-fil-A was named most frequently, the […]

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12:00 AM

MCD McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Leads to Updated Q4E Forecasts

McDonald’s plans to release its full-Q3 earnings before the market open on Monday, November 9th, to be followed that day by the related earnings release conference call and a Virtual Investor Update. McDonald’s has already released its Q3 samestore sales results, including a U.S. advance of +4.6%. Ahead of November 9th, and based on the responses from our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we raise our full-Q4E U.S. same-store sales projection by +110 basis points […]

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12:00 AM

MCD “Colores” Us Impressed Updating Our Q3E Forecasts (Again)

For the second time in a month, we raise our Q3E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. — this time by +60 basis points, to +3.6%. This is based on robust same-store sales from the second half of September, thanks largely to: (1) a limitedtime promotional tie-in with rapper Travis Scott (which launched September 8th), and (2) a limited-time offer featuring Spicy Chicken McNuggets (which launched September 16th). Both of these promotions did so well […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3E to +3.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July 2020 and August 2020, as well as our best guess for what September 2020 is bringing us. The approximate monthly figures we use are +2% to +3% for July 2020, +3% to +4% for August 2020, and approximately +6% for September […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) Some Challenges, and Some Bright Spots

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy, $199.26) reported Q2 EPS of $0.65, short of our $0.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.73. There was a $31 million one-time payment to distribution centers for obsolete inventory, and an increase in bad debt reserve (related to rents and royalty deferrals) of $45 million. By our math, these items combined represent about 8 cents on an EPS basis. For more info see today’s 8-K at: […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) U.S. Same-Store Sales Trends Improving

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral, $183.93) reported Q1 EPS of $1.47, short of our $1.52 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.55. SG&A/Revenues of 12.5% (versus our 11.7% projection) accounts for the difference between Q1 EPS and our EPS estimate. However, part of this SG&A relates to non-recurring costs, such as $40 million for the company’s cancelation of its biannual worldwide convention, and $20 million for “payments of contractual obligations as [McDonald’s] […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) Robust Q4 Results, But SG&A Will Weigh on 2020

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported Q4 EPS (excluding an $0.11 worth of income tax benefits due to new regulations) of $1.97, below our $2.00 forecast, but one cent above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.96. Closely-watched U.S. same-store sales rose by +5.1% in Q4, nearly matching our +5.0% projection, and coming in 40 basis points above consensus of +4.7%. Fourthquarter same-store sales for International Operated (+6.2% actual vs. our +5.5% estimate and […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) Fundamental Challenges Expanding

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral) reported third-quarter EPS of $2.11, falling short of our $2.21 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.21. Tax rate accounts for $0.02-$0.03 of the difference between actual and our forecast. Other factors behind the EPS miss include lower-thananticipated revenues from franchisee/affiliates ($3.014 billion actual vs. $3.090 billion projected), weaker-than-projected franchised margins (81.4% actual vs. 81.9% projected), lower-than-anticipated Other Operating Income ($49.5 million actual vs. $66.2 million estimated), […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) More Fresh Beef for the Bulls

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.05, one cent short of our $2.06 forecast, but in line with sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.05. However, investor eyes may be more focused on the robust Q2 same-store sales trends across the board. In the U.S., Q2 same-store sales rose by +5.7%, surpassing our +5.1% forecast and sell-side consensus of +4.4% (although buyside expectations were roughly +5%). We would not be […]

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12:00 AM

MCD 2019 Franchise Disclosure Document Review for McDonald’s

Not too long ago, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) filed its 400+ page Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, for the 11,761 domestic traditional McDonald’s restaurants that were open for at least one year as of December 31, 2018, their median sales volume was $2,764,000 […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E by +100 basis points to +3.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019. As we noted in our May 6th report “April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…” we believe that April 2019 was the best month for U.S. quick-service burgersector same-store sales […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Updating our Forecasts 2019

Given our latest data-driven checks, we raise our Q2E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. by 60 basis points, to +4.6%, placing us 60 basis points above consensus (according to Consensus Metrix data) and also as the second-highest forecast in this regard on the sell-side. We believe McDonald’s continues to benefit for a number of reasons, some of which we pointed to in our May 6th report “April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…” — […]

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12:00 AM

Are Protein Costs Poised to Accelerate Over 2019-21

African Swine Fever (ASF) is spreading rapidly not only in China — where it seems as many hogs have been culled from herds in that country as there are born in the entire United States in any given year — but also in other parts of Asia, not to mention parts of Europe. Based on our conversations with suppliers to the restaurant industry, and also with privately-held restaurant companies, we believe that commodity-cost risks over […]

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12:00 AM

April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…

In our April 8th report “Tidbits re: Burger-Sector Same-Store Sales Trends, and SBUX,” we noted that “With March 2019 now in the rear-view mirror, we are pleasantly surprised that this month appears to have turned out very well for burger-sector same-store sales. In fact, based on our proprietary, data-driven checks, the midsingle digit number put up by U.S. quick-service burger chains for March 2019 looks like the best month in this regard since February 2016, […]

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12:00 AM

MCD (Post-Call) Weak Same-Store Sales Trends Not Today

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported its Q1 EPS of $1.72, above our $1.71 forecast, but below the sell-side consensus of $1.75. But the real story is that U.S. same-store sales rose by an unexpectedly robust +4.5%, easily surpassing our above-consensus +3.2% projection. McDonald’s attributes the strong showing to “successful promotions, including the Bacon Event, the 2 for $5 Mix and Match deal, and Donut Sticks, as well as a net positive impact from our […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Our Latest Proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Says 4.19

Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we retain our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast at +3.2%. In the previous 80 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 73 times (91.3% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 56 times (70.0% of […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Efforts to Speed Up the Drive-Thru Already Paying Off

So far this year, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. same-store sales seem to be meaningfully outpacing those of its quick-service burger rivals. Why is this? How sustainable is it? While there are multiple reasons for McDonald’s success so far this year — for example, we believe fresh-beef Quarter Pounders and Quarter Pounder line extensions have sold rather well — this report focuses on improvements that we believe have been made in terms of average speed at […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re U.S. Pizza-Sector Market Share Trends, MCD, and Luckin Coffee

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding pizza-sector market-share trends in the U.S., McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), and privately-held Luckin Coffee: * U.S. PIZZA-SECTOR MARKET-SHARE TRENDS. In the U.S., the quick-service pizza segment generated $42.95 billion in sales during 2018, according to data from Technomic. This represents year-over-year growth of +3.5%. Putting these numbers in context, the overall U.S. restaurant industry totaled about $556.36 billion in 2018 sales, up by +3.6% year-over-year. (FYI, Technomic projects U.S. […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Updating Our Q1E19 U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast

Based on our latest proprietary, data-driven checks, and what appears to have been a better-than-expected March, we tweak our full-Q1E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. business upward by +20 basis points, to +3.2%. This places us 30 basis points above the current sell-side consensus of +2.9%. In March, we believe core menu items — including fresh-beef Quarter Pounders (both with and without bacon) — sold quite well. Toward the end of March, […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re MCD, DPZ, and KFC (owned by YUM)

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), and KFC (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Buy]): * McDONALD’S. The Chicago Tribune reports that “Representatives of a large company have met with village engineers as part of a due diligence process leading to the possible purchase of the McDonald’s campus property in Oak Brook [Illinois], Village President Gopal Lalmalani said Thursday. Lalmalani stopped short of identifying the company interested in purchasing […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re MCD, DNKN… and more DNKN

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]), and more Dunkin’: * McDONALD’S. Skift table reports that for February 2019 “McDonald’s led all [restaurant] companies in [TV] advertising dollars spent at $48 million, less than what the chain allocated in January. Taco Bell (second on the list) cut its TV advertising funding by nearly half, likely due to Grubhub picking up most of the tab […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re DPZ, DNKN, and MCD

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]), and McDonald’s (MCD; Buy): * DOMINO’S. Kalinowski Equity Research is hosting a headquarters visit to Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) in Ann Arbor, Michigan on Wednesday, May 22nd. Management attendees will include CEO Ritch Allison and EVP & CFO Jeff Lawrence. * KALINOWSKI’S TAKE: This will be an excellent opportunity for Q&A with Mr. Allison (who became CEO of […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Revising Our Q1E Tax-Rate Projection

We revise our Q1E tax-rate projection to 28.5% (from 24.8%). This change has the effect of lowering our Q1E and our full-year 2019E EPS estimates by $0.09 each, to $1.71 and $8.01, respectively. (Our full-year 2020E EPS forecast remains unchanged at $8.75.) In its most recent 10-K, McDonald’s notes: Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

MCD Updating and Introducing Various SameStore Sales Estimates

This past September, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) announced that it would reorganize its business into three segments (U.S., International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets). Much more recently, McDonald’s provided some historical information — including same-store sales information — about these new business segments. Armed with this new information, with this report we introduce our same-store sales projections for 2019E and 2020E for the International Operated Markets and International Developmental Licensed Markets segments. As of […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re MCD and Taco Bell (owned by YUM)

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) and Taco Bell (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Buy]): * McDONALD’S. The latest blog post of the National Ownership Association — the first-ever independent association of McDonald’s U.S. franchisees — is worth reading in full: Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

Introducing our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we introduce our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1E of +2.5%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January 2019 and the first half of February 2019. January 2019 appears to have been strong, despite some weather issues toward the end of the month. In fact, January 2019 same-store sales for the burger sector may have been almost as good […]

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12:00 AM

MCD Updating our Forecasts 2.19

Based on our checks related to January and the first half of February, we tweak upward our U.S. same-store sales forecast for Q1E by +30 basis points, to +3.3%. This places us 40 basis points above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +2.9%. We are encouraged by what we hear about Q1 so far, particularly given that weather has been a challenge at some points over January/February. McDonald’s initiatives — including fresh-beef quarter-pound beef […]

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12:00 AM

MCD NOA Flexes its McMuscles Yet Again

Regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), we have learned that a co-founder of the National Owners Association (NOA) — the first-ever independent association of McDonald’s U.S. franchisees — has been elected the new chairman of the NFLA (National Franchise Leadership Association), which if we understand correctly is a reformulation of McDonald’s decades-old NLC (National Leadership Council). Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM
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