Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in December 2025, just -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 56.7% set in November 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q4 2025 were lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.1% in January — sequentially down by -30 basis points since December’s +2.4%. This +2.1% number for January compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +4.1%). This marks the 34th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.