Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in September 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from August 2025’s 56.5% market share. The 56.6% figure also sets a new all-time monthly record. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.