Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 54.6% in September 2026.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.8% in September — sequentially -40 basis points lower than August’s +2.2%. This +1.8% number for August compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.5% year-over-year in September (sequentially up by +10 basis points from August’s +3.4%). This marks the 42nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Earlier today (Tuesday, October 13th), Domino’s reported third-quarter EPS of $4.60. This was above our $4.25 forecast, and also above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $4.37. The Q3 tax rate was 22.0%, equal to our 22.0% projection, and close to consensus of 22.2%.