Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.7% in May 2026, marking the third month in a row that this was the case. The 56.7% figure is -20 basis points the all-time high of 56.9%, achieved in February 2026.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to -0.2%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2026 is at +54.3%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in May — sequentially down by -20 basis points since April’s +2.9%. This +2.7% number for May compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.5% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +3.6%). This marks the 38th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.