Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in November 2025, tying the all-time record set in five different months so far this year. It’s also sequentially up by +10 basis points from October 2025’s 56.4% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to -3.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2025 is at +40.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in December — sequentially up by +50 basis points since November’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number for December compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in December (sequentially up by +40 basis points from November’s +3.7%). This marks the 33rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.