“One of Wall Street’s Top Analysts” – CNBC

Expert Stock Coverage

Unparalleled Expertise

 

“Mark Kalinowski has his finger on the pulse of the restaurant business like no other Wall Street analyst… he has broken more news about McDonald’s than the reporters assigned to the beat… Kalinowski rolls up his sleeves, dives in and brings important news to the surface for clients”

-Huffington Post

 

“The Burger King with accurate predictions… The Big Mac of predicting the company’s [McDonald’s] sales.”

-The Wall Street Journal

 

Lead Analyst:

 
 

Mark Kalinowski
PRESIDENT & CEO

Kalinowski Equity Research LLC provides its clients with value-added, forward-looking information that helps them make informed decisions about restaurant-stock investing.

Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants’ Rate of Market Share Gains Continues to Decelerate

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in June 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 56.2% figure is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +60 basis points year-over-year. This is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain attained in July 2022.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q2 Shows Top-Line Challenges

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2024 to +1.8%. This is the second-lowest quarterly showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Excluding last quarter’s (Q1 2024’s) +0.9% result, and looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q2 2024 was. Clearly, some meaningful portion of consumers are modifying their restaurant spending habits. Multiple large restaurant companies have indicated that consumers from lower-income households, in particular, are becoming more conservative in their approach to restaurants.

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