With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to -1.5%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2026 is at +53.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in January 2026, a mere -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 56.7% set in November 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during the first part of Q1 2026 left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in February — sequentially up by +30 basis points since January’s +2.1%. This +2.4% number for February compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in February (sequentially down by -10 basis points from January’s +4.0%). This marks the 35th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.