Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 57.1% in June 2026. This 57.1% figure is a new all-time record in favor of the restaurant industry.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in June — sequentially the same as May’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for June compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in June (sequentially down by -10 basis points from May’s +3.5%). This marks the 39th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2026 to +1.7%. This is a bit of a step back from both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, each of which produced slightly better results. Times remain… not easy.