With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2024 to +0.7%. While this is sequentially a little better than Q3 2024’s +0.2% result, it’s still not all that encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, all four quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number. At least in 2025, the industry will be lapping weak numbers throughout the year.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +2.7%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +28.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in December 2024. This is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was actually not a gain at all, as the December 2023 market share was 56.3% — restaurants lost about -20 basis points of market share in December 2024 year-over-year. This is the first month in which restaurant lost market share since the pandemic-affected February 2021.