“One of Wall Street’s Top Analysts” – CNBC

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“Mark Kalinowski has his finger on the pulse of the restaurant business like no other Wall Street analyst… he has broken more news about McDonald’s than the reporters assigned to the beat… Kalinowski rolls up his sleeves, dives in and brings important news to the surface for clients”

-Huffington Post


“The Burger King with accurate predictions… The Big Mac of predicting the company’s [McDonald’s] sales.”

-The Wall Street Journal


Lead Analyst:


Mark Kalinowski

Kalinowski Equity Research LLC provides its clients with value-added, forward-looking information that helps them make informed decisions about restaurant-stock investing.

YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM (Post-Call): Don’t Call it a Comeback

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.05, falling short of our $1.13 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.10. We attribute the shortfall primarily to: (1) weaker-than-expected same-store sales at KFC and Pizza Hut (including both brands in China and the U.S.), and (2) a Q2 adjusted tax rate of 24.3% (as compared to our 21.6% estimate and consensus at 21.7%. The tax-rate difference cost Yum Brands about -4 cents in Q2 EPS, implying that Q2 EPS would have been only one cent short of consensus excluding this factor.

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Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
Mark Kalinowski

SBUX: Onward to the 9/13 Analyst Meeting

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Starbucks reported adjusted fiscal Q3 (calendar Q2) EPS of $0.84, close to our $0.85 forecast, and ahead of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.77. That said, on today’s conference call, management noted that fiscal Q3 EPS was helped by about +5 cents due to what it called “non-recurring benefits,” citing multiple factors including tax credits and government subsidies. Other than these non-recurring factors, the fiscal Q3 EPS outperformance relative to consensus was helped by better flow-through in the North American business (thanks in part to a more stable operating environment), as well as better-than-expected performance in Japan.

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