Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 57.7% in August 2026. This 57.7% figure is a new all-time monthly record in favor of the restaurant industry.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to -0.7%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2026 is at +47.1%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.2% in August — sequentially -50 basis points lower than July’s +2.7%. This +2.2% number for August compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in August (sequentially identical to July’s +3.4%). This marks the 41st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.