“One of Wall Street’s Top Analysts” – CNBC

Expert Stock Coverage

Unparalleled Expertise

 

“Mark Kalinowski has his finger on the pulse of the restaurant business like no other Wall Street analyst… he has broken more news about McDonald’s than the reporters assigned to the beat… Kalinowski rolls up his sleeves, dives in and brings important news to the surface for clients”

-Huffington Post

 

“The Burger King with accurate predictions… The Big Mac of predicting the company’s [McDonald’s] sales.”

-The Wall Street Journal

 

Lead Analyst:

 
 

Mark Kalinowski
PRESIDENT & CEO

Kalinowski Equity Research LLC provides its clients with value-added, forward-looking information that helps them make informed decisions about restaurant-stock investing.

Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (9/18/2024)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurant Spending Growth Rate Continues to Sequentially Shrink

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in August 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains Well Above the Historical Average

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +0.9% in August — sequentially down by -20 basis points from July’s +1.1%. This +0.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -10 basis points from July’s +4.1%). This marks the 18th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

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