Earlier today (Monday), Domino’s reported fourth-quarter EPS of $5.35. This was below our $5.50 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $5.38. The Q4 tax rate was 21.2%, as compared to our 21.5% estimate and consensus at 21.7%.
After today’s (Wednesday’s) market close, The Cheesecake Factory reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.00, coming in one cent ahead of our $0.99 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.99.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in December 2025, just -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 56.7% set in November 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q4 2025 were lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.