Recent Posts

Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/22/22)

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: Sets Another New Monthly Record for Market Share vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.2% in October 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +140 basis points from the October 2021 number of 53.8%. In addition, the 55.2% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.1% number from September 2022.

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8:59 AM

Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/15/2022)

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $122.60]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Grocery Pricing +12.4% in October 2022, Gap with Restaurants Narrows Again

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.6% year-over-year in October (sequentially up by +10 basis points from September’s +8.5%). This +8.6% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.4% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -60 basis points from September’s +13.0%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is now -110 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for two months in a row.

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9:01 AM

Restaurants: Sets New All-Time Monthly Record for Market Share vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.1% in September 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the September 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 55.1% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.0% number from April 2022.

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9:20 AM

Grocery Pricing +13.0% in Sept. 2022, Although Gap with Restaurants Narrows

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.5% year-over-year in September (sequentially up by +50 basis points from August’s +8.0%). This +8.5% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.0% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -50 basis points from August’s +13.5%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is only -50 basis points below the 40+ year high number.

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9:04 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +6.3% number from Q3 2021, and the +4.3% number from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 is at +16.5%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +36.1% number from Q3 2021 and the -18.7% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 is at +13.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to -0.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.4% number from Q3 2021, and the +15.2% figure from Q3 2020. Our -0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +3.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.0% number from Q3 2021, and the +7.5% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 is at +14.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 to +4.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.5% number from Q3 2021, and the -30.8% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 2022 is at +20.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +5.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.1% number from Q3 2021 and the +5.2% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 is at +26.6%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to +3.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +40.3% number from Q3 2021, and the -28.2% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 is at +3.8%. This would mark the first time this year in which any quarter is positive on a three-year basis for family dining. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Slightly Below All-Time High in August

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.8% in August 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +80 basis points from the August 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 54.8% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (from April 2022).

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9:23 AM

Grocery Pricing +13.5% Year-over-Year for August 2022 = Good News for Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially up by +40 basis points from July’s +7.6%). This +8.0% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.5% year-over-year in August (sequentially up by +40 basis points from July’s +13.1%). The food-at-home figure of +13.5% is easily a 40+ year high.

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8:58 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Just Below All-Time High in July

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.9% in July 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +60 basis points from the July 2021 number of 54.3%. In addition, the 54.9% figure is a mere -10 basis points below the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (first set in April 2022).

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8:56 AM

Grocery Pricing +13.1% Year-over-Year for July 2022 = Good News for Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +7.6% year-over-year in July (sequentially down by -10 basis points from June’s +7.7%). This +7.6% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.1% year-over-year in July (sequentially up by +90 basis points from June’s +12.2%). The food-at-home figure of +13.1% is easily a 40+ year high.

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8:52 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Sets New Quarterly Record in Q2

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.0% in June 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +100 basis points from the June 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 55.0% figure ties the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (first set in April 2022).

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9:06 AM

Updating Our Q2 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 to +3.6%. The second quarter of 2022 started off softly, particularly in quick-service, in part due to lapping government-provided $500 billion stimulus from March/April 2021. Trends improved during May, but in June the trend was mixed. Both casual dining and family dining may have come close to generating negative same-store sales during June. On the other hand, quick-service may have benefitted from some trade-down from full-service during June. Also, fast-casual and fine dining appear to remain strong, assisted in part by the relatively higher incomes of their guest base.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +2.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +21.6% number from Q2 2021, and the -7.3% number from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 is at +15.3%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +5.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +99.1% number from Q2 2021, and the -54.0% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 is at -3.1%. Family Dining is the only major segment of the restaurant industry for which pre-pandemic sales levels have not fully returned. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

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7:04 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +30.3% number from Q2 2021 and the -7.7% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 is at +30.4%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to -2.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +4.1% number from Q2 2021, and the +15.3% figure from Q2 2020. Our -2.7% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

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7:02 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2 to +11.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +216.3% number from Q2 2021, and the -64.3% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2 2022 is at +25.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +3.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +99.9% number from Q2 2021 and the -42.4% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +19.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:02 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Close to a New Record in May, But…

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.9% in May 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +180 basis points from the May 2021 number of 53.1%. In addition, the 54.9% figure is only -10 basis points less than the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (set in April 2022). But…

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9:00 AM

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +2.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.4% number from Q2 2021, and the +1.6% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 is at +19.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: How Might Same-Store Sales Normalize Going Forward? (Part 2)

Due to the pandemic and various reactions to it, U.S. same-store sales for virtually all restaurant companies experienced much more volatility than usual over 2020 and 2021. But, now that we are more than two years past the month (March 2020) in which pandemic-related issues began affecting same-store sales, we would anticipate that U.S. same-store sales for most restaurant concepts will look much more normalized going forward (including meaningfully less volatility than was generated over 2020-21). What could this imply about future same-store sales trends? In this note, we examine what that could mean for several leading full-service concepts.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: How Might Same-Store Sales Normalize Going Forward? (Part 1)

Due to the pandemic and various reactions to it, U.S. same-store sales for virtually all restaurant companies experienced much more volatility than usual over 2020 and 2021. But, now that we are more than two years past the month (March 2020) in which pandemic-related issues began affecting same-store sales, we would anticipate that U.S. same-store sales for most restaurant concepts will look much more normalized going forward (including meaningfully less volatility than was generated over 2020-21). What could this imply about future same-store sales trends? In this note, we examine what that could mean for several leading quick-service and fast-casual concepts.

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7:00 AM

Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (6/1/2022)

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $121.47]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes

Recently, McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) all reported their Q1 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: Which Full-Service Stocks are Best-Positioned Should the Market Recover?

We looked at 12 full-service restaurant stocks, and examined: (1) how far below they have fallen their five-year highs, and (2) how far they’d have to fall to equal their five-year lows. Our thinking is that the stocks that are most below the five-year highs, and simultaneously would have less to fall to get back to their five-year lows, might be best-positioned for meaningful outperformance should the general stock market recover.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Sets a New Monthly Record in April

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.9% in April 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +260 basis points from the April 2021 number of 52.3%. Even more impressively, as best as we can tell, this 54.9% market share figure for April 2022 is an all-time monthly high for the U.S. restaurant industry.

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9:12 AM

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Improves Year-to-Year in Q1

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 51.6% in March 2022. This was -10 basis points sequentially lower than February 2022’s 51.7% figure. But it was also modestly higher than restaurants’ full-year 2021 market share of 50.4%.

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9:01 AM

Updating Our Q1 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 to +7.1%. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, this is approximately +14.6%. The first quarter of 2022 had many dips and undulations in terms of same-store sales trends. January 2022 was hampered by labor availability issues that were widespread across the industry. February 2022 fared meaningfully better, as Covid (Omicron) cases rapidly declined in the U.S., and (in a related matter) as labor-availability challenges lessened. However, March 2022 saw trends weaken again, in part due to lapping the massive $500 billion stimulus from one year ago.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +2.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +12.9% number from Q1 2021, and the -1.2% number from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 is at +13.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +17.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +9.1% number from Q1 2021 and the -13.1% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +11.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 to +40.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -0.8% number from Q1 2021, and the -13.3% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 2022 is at +4.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to -0.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +16.6% number from Q1 2021, and the -0.9% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 is at +15.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +1.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +8.5% number from Q1 2021, and the +4.8% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +15.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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7:00 AM
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