Restaurant Industry

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.0% in June 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +100 basis points from the June 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 55.0% figure ties the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (first set in April 2022).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +7.7% year-over-year in June. This compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.2% year-over-year in June. Both of these percentages marked 40+ year highs.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 to +3.6%. The second quarter of 2022 started off softly, particularly in quick-service, in part due to lapping government-provided $500 billion stimulus from March/April 2021. Trends improved during May, but in June the trend was mixed. Both casual dining and family dining may have come close to generating negative same-store sales during June. On the other hand, quick-service may have benefitted from some trade-down from full-service during June. Also, fast-casual and fine dining appear to remain strong, assisted in part by the relatively higher incomes of their guest base.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +2.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +21.6% number from Q2 2021, and the -7.3% number from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 is at +15.3%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +5.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +99.1% number from Q2 2021, and the -54.0% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 is at -3.1%. Family Dining is the only major segment of the restaurant industry for which pre-pandemic sales levels have not fully returned. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +30.3% number from Q2 2021 and the -7.7% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 is at +30.4%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to -2.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +4.1% number from Q2 2021, and the +15.3% figure from Q2 2020. Our -2.7% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2 to +11.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +216.3% number from Q2 2021, and the -64.3% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2 2022 is at +25.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +3.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +99.9% number from Q2 2021 and the -42.4% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +19.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.9% in May 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +180 basis points from the May 2021 number of 53.1%. In addition, the 54.9% figure is only -10 basis points less than the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (set in April 2022). But…

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +2.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.4% number from Q2 2021, and the +1.6% figure from Q2 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 is at +19.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

Due to the pandemic and various reactions to it, U.S. same-store sales for virtually all restaurant companies experienced much more volatility than usual over 2020 and 2021. But, now that we are more than two years past the month (March 2020) in which pandemic-related issues began affecting same-store sales, we would anticipate that U.S. same-store sales for most restaurant concepts will look much more normalized going forward (including meaningfully less volatility than was generated over 2020-21). What could this imply about future same-store sales trends? In this note, we examine what that could mean for several leading full-service concepts.

Due to the pandemic and various reactions to it, U.S. same-store sales for virtually all restaurant companies experienced much more volatility than usual over 2020 and 2021. But, now that we are more than two years past the month (March 2020) in which pandemic-related issues began affecting same-store sales, we would anticipate that U.S. same-store sales for most restaurant concepts will look much more normalized going forward (including meaningfully less volatility than was generated over 2020-21). What could this imply about future same-store sales trends? In this note, we examine what that could mean for several leading quick-service and fast-casual concepts.

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $121.47]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Recently, McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) all reported their Q1 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Yesterday, we published a report examining 12 full-service restaurant stocks, in the context of their five-year highs and five-year lows. That report is available at:

We looked at 12 full-service restaurant stocks, and examined: (1) how far below they have fallen their five-year highs, and (2) how far they’d have to fall to equal their five-year lows. Our thinking is that the stocks that are most below the five-year highs, and simultaneously would have less to fall to get back to their five-year lows, might be best-positioned for meaningful outperformance should the general stock market recover.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.9% in April 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +260 basis points from the April 2021 number of 52.3%. Even more impressively, as best as we can tell, this 54.9% market share figure for April 2022 is an all-time monthly high for the U.S. restaurant industry.

Earlier today (Wednesday, May 11th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for April 2022 — importantly, these data points are on a one-year basis — was up by +5.3%, with traffic off by -2.7%.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 51.6% in March 2022. This was -10 basis points sequentially lower than February 2022’s 51.7% figure. But it was also modestly higher than restaurants’ full-year 2021 market share of 50.4%.

Earlier today (Wednesday, April 13th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for March 2022 — importantly, these data points are on a one-year basis — was up by +7.2%, with traffic off by -1.7%.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 to +7.1%. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, this is approximately +14.6%. The first quarter of 2022 had many dips and undulations in terms of same-store sales trends. January 2022 was hampered by labor availability issues that were widespread across the industry. February 2022 fared meaningfully better, as Covid (Omicron) cases rapidly declined in the U.S., and (in a related matter) as labor-availability challenges lessened. However, March 2022 saw trends weaken again, in part due to lapping the massive $500 billion stimulus from one year ago.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +2.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +12.9% number from Q1 2021, and the -1.2% number from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 is at +13.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +17.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +9.1% number from Q1 2021 and the -13.1% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +11.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 to +40.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -0.8% number from Q1 2021, and the -13.3% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 2022 is at +4.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to -0.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +16.6% number from Q1 2021, and the -0.9% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 is at +15.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

One-year same-store sales trends have slowed down for U.S. chain restaurants. We believe that on an industry level, same-store sales turned negative in early-to-mid March 2022. What’s causing this? And when might trends get better?

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +1.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +8.5% number from Q1 2021, and the +4.8% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +15.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Restaurant Brands International (QSR; Not Rated) — parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen — announced its intention to acquire Firehouse Subs this past November 15th. That $1.0 billion acquisition’s close was announced one month later, on December 15th.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to +20.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.4% number from Q1 2021, and the -15.5% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 is at +1.3%. This is the lowest pre-pandemic figure in this respect for any of the major segments of the U.S. restaurant industry. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 51.5% in February 2022. This was +80 basis points sequentially better than January 2022’s 50.7% figure. It was also modestly higher than restaurants’ full-year 2021 market share of 50.4%.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +8.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +15.3% number from Q1 2021 and the +1.5% figure from Q1 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 is at +26.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early March.

Earlier today (Wednesday, March 9th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for February 2022 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +2.7%, with two-year traffic off by -13.8%.

February 2022 was the 11th full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service (and particularly so for the quick-service burger segment). To the extent two-year & three-year trends in average check continue to hold in nicely over the course of 2022, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

Sometimes, relative bargains can be unearthed when looking at a group of stocks, and comparing their current prices with these stocks’ 52-week highs. We looked at 35 restaurant stocks’ closing prices as of this past Friday (February 18th). Some observations:

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 50.6% in January 2022. This was slightly higher than restaurants’ full-year 2021 market share of 50.4%, and +410 basis points higher than restaurants’ January 2021 market share of 46.5%. Nevertheless, the 50.6% number represents -50 basis points of sequential deceleration from December 2021’s 51.1% figure. In addition, the 50.6% number for January 2022 is the lowest monthly figure since April 2021’s 50.5%.

Earlier today (Wednesday, February 9th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for January 2022 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was down by -0.9%, with two-year traffic off by -15.6%.

January 2022 was the 10th full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service (and particularly so for the quick-service burger segment). To the extent two-year trends in average check continue to hold in nicely over the course of 2022, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +14.6%. On a two-year basis, this is approximately +11.6%. While this +11.6% number would mark the third-best quarter in several years for the industry’s two-year same-store sales performance, we believe that January 2022 has started off somewhat weak for the industry, particularly on a one-year basis. Investors should be aware of this as we head into the upcoming earnings reporting season.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.3% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +6.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +64.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -36.4% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 is at +4.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

For full-year 2021, U.S. Food Services and Drinking Places (primarily restaurants) generated $817.2 billion in sales. This was up by +31.1% year-over-year. On a two-year basis (to compare vs. pre-pandemic times), this was up by +5.6%. Restaurants lost about 800 basis points of market share to grocery stores in 2020, but gained back 580 basis points of share in 2021. We look for further market-share gains by restaurants at the expense of grocery stores in 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +3.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +10.4% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 is at +14.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Earlier today (Wednesday, January 12th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for December 2021 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +4.1%, with two-year traffic off by -8.4%.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +35.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -19.1% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 is at +9.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

December 2021 was the 9th full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service (and particularly so for the quick-service burger segment). To the extent two-year trends in average check continue to hold in nicely over the course of 2022, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +13.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.4% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 is at +17.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +38.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -28.4% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 is at -0.8%. (These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.) At this point, we anticipate that the -0.8% figure will be the lowest two-year same-store sales number for any of our Kalinowski Same-Store Sales Indices as regards Q4 2021.

Looking back to the end of 2009, and through the end of 12/30/21, the value of $10,000 invested in the Kalinowski top picks would now be worth $126,241 (a CAGR of about +23.5%). The value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over that time would now be worth $59,657 (a CAGR of about +16.0%).

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +6.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +4.5% number from Q4 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 is at +11.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and the first half of December.