Restaurant Industry

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +4.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +7.5% number from Q3 2020, the +3.0% figure from Q3 2021, and the +4.5% number from Q3 2022. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2023 is at +21.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to +2.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -28.2% number from Q3 2020, the +40.3% figure from Q3 2021, and the +3.9% number from Q3 2022. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2023 is at +6.8%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +3.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.1% figure from Q3 2020, +13.9% number from Q3 2021, and the +6.1% figure from Q3 2022. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2023 is at +31.9%. This +31.8% figure is one of the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early September.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.1% in August 2023. This is tied for the best-ever monthly market-share showing for the U.S. restaurant industry, and marks the third month in a row at that percentage. The strong August percentage shows that, despite restaurant prices gaining steam at a more meaningful rate than grocery prices as of late, consumers have – at least through the end of August – not meaningfully shifted food dollars back to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +3.0% in August (sequentially down by -60 basis points from July’s +3.6%). This +3.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +6.5% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -60 basis points from July’s +7.1%). This marks the 6th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.

Restaurant Business reports that “Representatives of the restaurant and franchise businesses have secured an agreement to kill California’s controversial Fast Act in exchange for accepting one of the law’s most contentious provisions, the creation of a panel to set wages and working conditions for California fast-food restaurants. The agreement also calls for shelving a legislative proposal currently under consideration that would have held restaurant franchisors accountable for the employment policies and practices of their franchisees, a measure blasted as an existential threat to restaurant franchising. The call for legislating a joint-employer standard is contained in a pending piece of legislation, AB 1228. The joint-employer provision would be killed, and the bill would be amended to include the various provisions of the new pact between industry, organized labor and pro-labor members of California’s legislature.”

Black Box Intelligence has released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts. Black Box notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.3% in July 2023. This is the best-ever monthly market-share showing for the U.S. restaurant industry, surpassing the previous record of 55.1% from June 2023. This shows that, despite restaurant prices gaining steam at a more meaningful rate than grocery prices as of late, consumers have – at least through the end of July – not meaningfully shifted food dollars back to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +3.6% in July (sequentially down by -110 basis points from June’s +4.7%). This +3.6% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +7.1% year-over-year in July (sequentially down by -60 basis points from June’s +7.7%). This marks the fifth month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.0% in June 2023. This is the best-ever monthly market-share showing for the U.S. restaurant industry, surpassing the previous record of 54.9% from January 2023. This shows that, despite restaurant prices gaining steam at a more meaningful rate than grocery prices as of late, consumers have – at least through the end of June – not meaningfully shifted food dollars back to grocery stores and supermarkets.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2023 to +6.3%. This is stronger than we would have expected three months ago. This +6.3% figure is also slightly more than double the 33-quarter (Q1 2015-Q1 2023) median of +3.0%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q2 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

Before we discuss the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data as relates to restaurants and grocery stores, we want to briefly mention that we favor Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $349.79) and its news out this morning that it has signed a global agreement with Uber to allow Domino’s to be ordered through the Uber Eats and Postmates apps. While the agreement is global in nature, specific to the U.S. four markets will be pilot-tested this autumn, with nationwide rollout expected to be complete by end-of-year 2023.

On June 1st, we published a report in which we looked at G&A expenses per restaurant for seven large-cap companies. That report can be accessed at:

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to +2.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +15.3% number from Q2 2020, the +4.1% figure from Q2 2021, and the -2.7% number from Q2 2022. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 2023 is at +19.0%. So, not only does the quick-service pizza have the second-lowest one-year same-store sales figure for Q2 2023 (ahead of only fine fining), it also has the second-lowest four-year number for Q2 2023 (ahead of only the family dining segment). Our +2.0% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +3.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +2.4% number from Q2 2020, the +13.9% figure from Q2 2021, and the +2.9% number from Q2 2022. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 2023 is at +23.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +8.8%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -7.3% number from Q2 2020, the +21.6% figure from Q2 2021, and the +2.8% number from Q2 2022. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2023 is at +26.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +3.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -54.0% number from Q2 2020, the +99.1% figure from Q2 2021, and the +5.0% number from Q2 2022. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 2023 is at -0.3%. This is the lowest such number (and only negative number) of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

On June 1st, we published a report in which we looked at G&A expenses per restaurant for seven large-cap companies. That report can be accessed at:

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +3.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -42.4% number from Q2 2020, the +105.5% figure from Q2 2021, and the +5.0% figure from Q2 2022. On a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +29.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 54.4% in May 2023. Sequentially, this is the same as the April 2023 figure of 54.4%, and also in line with the Q1 2023 number of 54.4%. The May 2023 showing is tied for the second-best month ever in this regard, surpassed only by January 2023’s 54.9% number. On a year-over-year basis, restaurants’ market share was up by +120 basis points in May 2023.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +6.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -7.7% figure from Q2 2020, +30.3% number from Q2 2021, and the +6.0% figure from Q2 2022. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2023 is at +36.0%. This +36.0% figure is one of the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +5.8% in May (sequentially down by -130 basis points from April’s +7.1%). This +5.8% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.3% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -30 basis points from April’s +8.6%). This marks the third month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.

We decided to examine the G&A expenses per restaurant for seven large-cap restaurant companies, looking at data both from a calendar 2022 perspective, and from an anticipated calendar 2023E perspective.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q1 2023 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2023 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $131.45]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2023 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2023 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 54.5% in April 2023. Sequentially, this is +20 basis points higher than the March 2023 figure of 54.3%, and +10 basis points higher than the Q1 2023 number of 54.4%. The April 2023 showing marks the second-best month ever in this regard, surpassed only by January 2023’s 54.9% number. On a year-over-year basis, restaurants’ market share was up by +130 basis points in April 2023.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +7.1% in April (sequentially down by -130 basis points from March’s +8.4%). This +7.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.6% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -20 basis points from March’s +8.8%). This marks the second month in which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing since late 2021.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – after today’s market close. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in March 2023. Sequentially, this is slightly up from the (-10 basis point downward revised) 56.0% figure from February 2023. It also marks the second-best month ever for the U.S. restaurant industry in this regard, surpassed only by January 2023’s all-time record of 56.7%. On a year-over-year basis, the March 2023 numbers represent a +170 basis point gain in favor of restaurants.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +8.4% in March (sequentially down by -180 basis points from February’s +10.2%). This +8.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially up by +40 basis points from February’s +8.4%). This marks the first month in which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing since late 2021.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2023 to +8.3%. This is more than double the 31-quarter (Q1 2015-Q4 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q1 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its traditional (non-satellite, non-mall) restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is likely simply a matter of time before it gets there.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to +9.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -15.7% number from Q1 2020, the -1.2% figure from Q1 2021, and the +19.5% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2023 is at +8.5%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to +2.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -0.3% number from Q1 2020, the +17.2% figure from Q1 2021, and the -3.1% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2023 is at +16.2%. So, not only does the quick-service pizza have the lowest one-year same-store sales figure for Q1 2023, it also has the second-lowest four-year number for Q1 2023 (ahead of only the family dining segment). Our +2.7% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +10.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, and the +2.3% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2023 is at +25.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and most of March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +5.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.4% number from Q1 2020, the +8.4% figure from Q1 2021, and the +2.3% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2023 is at +23.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +8.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.6% figure from Q1 2020, +15.5% number from Q1 2021, and the +7.6% figure from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2023 is at +36.5%. This +36.5% figure is the second-best of any major restaurant sector, surpassed only by fine dining. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 to +8.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.2% number from Q1 2020, the +1.3% figure from Q1 2021, and the +51.7% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 2023 is at +44.5%. This +44.5% figure is the best same-store sales number relative to Q1 2019 levels of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +8.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.3% number from Q1 2020, the +9.8% figure from Q1 2021, and the +18.9% figure from Q1 2022. On a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +23.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in February 2023. While this is sequentially down from the all-time record of 56.8% from January 2023, it still registers as the second-best month of all time in this regard. The 56.1% figure is also up year-over-year by about +200 basis points from the February 2022 number of 54.1%.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +10.2% in February (sequentially down by -110 basis points from January’s +11.3%). This +10.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.4% year-over-year in January (sequentially up by +20 basis points from January’s +8.2%). The gap is now +180 basis points in favor of restaurants. While this is a meaningful gap, it’s also the smallest monthly gap since February 2022’s +180 basis point gap in favor of restaurants.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 56.7% in January 2023. This is a sizable year-over-year improvement of +420 basis points from the January 2022 number of 52.5%.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.2% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +8.3%). This +8.2% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.3% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -50 basis points from December’s +11.8%). The food-at-home figure of +11.3% is now -220 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for four months in a row.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday.

On December 7th, we published a note looking at which states might seek to enact a law similar to California’s anti-restaurants AB 257, which would create a soviet-style, mostly government-appointed council of lackeys to set the legal minimum wage for California employees of national fast-food concepts. (A coalition of this bill’s opponents have collected enough valid California voter signatures to have held off implementation of AB 257 until it can be voted on in the November 2024 elections.)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +6.1%. This is more than double the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q4 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.8% in December 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the December 2021 number of 53.7%.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +5.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -34.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 2022 is at +15.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.