Recent Posts

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +8.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.6% figure from Q1 2020, +15.5% number from Q1 2021, and the +7.6% figure from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2023 is at +36.5%. This +36.5% figure is the second-best of any major restaurant sector, surpassed only by fine dining. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 to +8.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.2% number from Q1 2020, the +1.3% figure from Q1 2021, and the +51.7% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 2023 is at +44.5%. This +44.5% figure is the best same-store sales number relative to Q1 2019 levels of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +8.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.3% number from Q1 2020, the +9.8% figure from Q1 2021, and the +18.9% figure from Q1 2022. On a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +23.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: February 2023 is 2nd-Best Month Ever for Market Share vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in February 2023. While this is sequentially down from the all-time record of 56.8% from January 2023, it still registers as the second-best month of all time in this regard. The 56.1% figure is also up year-over-year by about +200 basis points from the February 2022 number of 54.1%.

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8:59 AM

Grocery Pricing +10.2% in February 2023, +180 Basis Points More than Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +10.2% in February (sequentially down by -110 basis points from January’s +11.3%). This +10.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.4% year-over-year in January (sequentially up by +20 basis points from January’s +8.2%). The gap is now +180 basis points in favor of restaurants. While this is a meaningful gap, it’s also the smallest monthly gap since February 2022’s +180 basis point gap in favor of restaurants.

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9:00 AM

Restaurants: BlackBox Index Soars in January

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

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9:41 AM

Grocery Pricing +11.3% in January 2023, +310 Basis Points More than Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.2% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +8.3%). This +8.2% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.3% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -50 basis points from December’s +11.8%). The food-at-home figure of +11.3% is now -220 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for four months in a row.

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8:52 AM

Virginia Lawmaker Introduces Anti-Restaurants Bill HB 2478

On December 7th, we published a note looking at which states might seek to enact a law similar to California’s anti-restaurants AB 257, which would create a soviet-style, mostly government-appointed council of lackeys to set the legal minimum wage for California employees of national fast-food concepts. (A coalition of this bill’s opponents have collected enough valid California voter signatures to have held off implementation of AB 257 until it can be voted on in the November 2024 elections.)

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12:24 PM

Updating Our Q4 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +6.1%. This is more than double the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q4 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +5.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -34.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 2022 is at +15.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Grocery Pricing +11.8% in December 2022, +350 Basis Points More than Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.3% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +8.5%). This +8.3% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.8% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +12.0%). The food-at-home figure of +11.8% is now -170 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for three months in a row.

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8:59 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +2.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.3% number from Q4 2021, and the +10.7% figure from Q4 2020. Our +2.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

McDonald’s (MCD) and Yum Brands (YUM): A Simple Investment Strategy

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. With this note, we look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

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10:46 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +5.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +35.8% number from Q4 2021 and the -18.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 is at +16.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +4.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +37.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -28.3% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 is at +2.8%. This would mark the second time this year in which any quarter is positive on a three-year basis for family dining. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.2% number from Q4 2021 and the +3.3% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 is at +25.7%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

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4:16 PM

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +7.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +6.1% number from Q4 2021, and the +4.7% number from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 is at +19.0%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

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7:02 AM

Restaurants: Sets Another New All-Time Market Share Record vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.3% in November 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +120 basis points from the November 2021 number of 54.1%. In addition, the 55.3% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.2% number from October 2022.

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9:04 AM

Grocery Pricing +12.0% in November 2022, Gap with Restaurants Narrows a Little

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.5% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -10 basis points from October’s +8.6%). This +8.5% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.0% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -40 basis points from October’s +12.4%). The food-at-home figure of +12.0% is now -150 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for two months in a row.

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8:48 AM

What States in Addition to California Could Declare War on the Restaurant Industry?

On October 18th, we published a note looking at how restaurant companies should battle the California government’s implicit declaration of war on the restaurant industry in the form of the “Fast Recovery Act,” a more accurate name for which would be the Fascist Act. Our suggestions included several options specific to California. That report is available at:

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7:00 AM

Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/22/22)

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Restaurants: Sets Another New Monthly Record for Market Share vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.2% in October 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +140 basis points from the October 2021 number of 53.8%. In addition, the 55.2% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.1% number from September 2022.

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8:59 AM

Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/15/2022)

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $122.60]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

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7:00 AM

Grocery Pricing +12.4% in October 2022, Gap with Restaurants Narrows Again

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.6% year-over-year in October (sequentially up by +10 basis points from September’s +8.5%). This +8.6% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.4% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -60 basis points from September’s +13.0%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is now -110 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for two months in a row.

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9:01 AM

Restaurants: Sets New All-Time Monthly Record for Market Share vs. Grocery Stores

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.1% in September 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the September 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 55.1% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.0% number from April 2022.

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9:20 AM

Grocery Pricing +13.0% in Sept. 2022, Although Gap with Restaurants Narrows

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.5% year-over-year in September (sequentially up by +50 basis points from August’s +8.0%). This +8.5% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.0% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -50 basis points from August’s +13.5%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is only -50 basis points below the 40+ year high number.

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9:04 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +6.3% number from Q3 2021, and the +4.3% number from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 is at +16.5%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +36.1% number from Q3 2021 and the -18.7% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 is at +13.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to -0.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.4% number from Q3 2021, and the +15.2% figure from Q3 2020. Our -0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +3.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.0% number from Q3 2021, and the +7.5% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 is at +14.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 to +4.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.5% number from Q3 2021, and the -30.8% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 2022 is at +20.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM

Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +5.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.1% number from Q3 2021 and the +5.2% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 is at +26.6%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

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7:00 AM
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