Restaurant Industry

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +8.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.6% figure from Q1 2020, +15.5% number from Q1 2021, and the +7.6% figure from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2023 is at +36.5%. This +36.5% figure is the second-best of any major restaurant sector, surpassed only by fine dining. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 to +8.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.2% number from Q1 2020, the +1.3% figure from Q1 2021, and the +51.7% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1 2023 is at +44.5%. This +44.5% figure is the best same-store sales number relative to Q1 2019 levels of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +8.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.3% number from Q1 2020, the +9.8% figure from Q1 2021, and the +18.9% figure from Q1 2022. On a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +23.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in February 2023. While this is sequentially down from the all-time record of 56.8% from January 2023, it still registers as the second-best month of all time in this regard. The 56.1% figure is also up year-over-year by about +200 basis points from the February 2022 number of 54.1%.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +10.2% in February (sequentially down by -110 basis points from January’s +11.3%). This +10.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.4% year-over-year in January (sequentially up by +20 basis points from January’s +8.2%). The gap is now +180 basis points in favor of restaurants. While this is a meaningful gap, it’s also the smallest monthly gap since February 2022’s +180 basis point gap in favor of restaurants.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday. BlackBox notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 56.7% in January 2023. This is a sizable year-over-year improvement of +420 basis points from the January 2022 number of 52.5%.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.2% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +8.3%). This +8.2% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.3% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -50 basis points from December’s +11.8%). The food-at-home figure of +11.3% is now -220 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for four months in a row.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late yesterday.

On December 7th, we published a note looking at which states might seek to enact a law similar to California’s anti-restaurants AB 257, which would create a soviet-style, mostly government-appointed council of lackeys to set the legal minimum wage for California employees of national fast-food concepts. (A coalition of this bill’s opponents have collected enough valid California voter signatures to have held off implementation of AB 257 until it can be voted on in the November 2024 elections.)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +6.1%. This is more than double the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q4 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.8% in December 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the December 2021 number of 53.7%.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +5.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -34.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 2022 is at +15.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.3% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +8.5%). This +8.3% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.8% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +12.0%). The food-at-home figure of +11.8% is now -170 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for three months in a row.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q4 2021, and the +1.2% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 is at +11.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +2.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.3% number from Q4 2021, and the +10.7% figure from Q4 2020. Our +2.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. With this note, we look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +5.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +35.8% number from Q4 2021 and the -18.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 is at +16.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +4.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +37.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -28.3% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 is at +2.8%. This would mark the second time this year in which any quarter is positive on a three-year basis for family dining. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Sometimes, relative bargains can be unearthed when looking at a group of stocks, and comparing their current prices with these stocks’ 52-week highs. We looked at 34 restaurant stocks’ closing prices as of this past Friday (December 30, 2022). Some observations:

Looking back to the end of 2009, and through the end of 12/28/22, the value of $10,000 invested in the Kalinowski top picks would now be worth $93,833 (a CAGR of about +18.8%). The value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over that time would now be worth $48,248 (a CAGR of about +12.9%).

Looking back to the end of 2009, and through the end of 12/28/22, the value of $10,000 invested in the Kalinowski top picks would now be worth $93,833 (a CAGR of about +18.8%). The value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over that time would now be worth $48,248 (a CAGR of about +12.9%).

Looking back to the end of 2009, and through the end of 12/28/22, the value of $10,000 invested in the Kalinowski top picks would now be worth $93,833 (a CAGR of about +18.8%). The value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over that time would now be worth $48,248 (a CAGR of about +12.9%).

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.2% number from Q4 2021 and the +3.3% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 is at +25.7%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +7.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +6.1% number from Q4 2021, and the +4.7% number from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 is at +19.0%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late Friday.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late Friday.

Black Box Intelligence released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts – late Friday.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.3% in November 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +120 basis points from the November 2021 number of 54.1%. In addition, the 55.3% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.2% number from October 2022.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.5% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -10 basis points from October’s +8.6%). This +8.5% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.0% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -40 basis points from October’s +12.4%). The food-at-home figure of +12.0% is now -150 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for two months in a row.

On October 18th, we published a note looking at how restaurant companies should battle the California government’s implicit declaration of war on the restaurant industry in the form of the “Fast Recovery Act,” a more accurate name for which would be the Fascist Act. Our suggestions included several options specific to California. That report is available at:

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Earlier today (Thursday, November 17th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for October 2022 — importantly, these data points are on a one-year basis — was up by +5.2%, with traffic off by -3.6%.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.2% in October 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +140 basis points from the October 2021 number of 53.8%. In addition, the 55.2% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.1% number from September 2022.

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $122.60]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2022 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2022 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.6% year-over-year in October (sequentially up by +10 basis points from September’s +8.5%). This +8.6% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +12.4% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -60 basis points from September’s +13.0%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is now -110 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for two months in a row.

Back on September 5th, California’s governor signed into law a bill known as the “Fast Recovery Act,” a more accurate name for which would be the Fascist Act. We cannot recall such a large portion of any single industry being so blatantly targeted as this act targets the restaurant industry.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 55.1% in September 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the September 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 55.1% figure sets a new all-time monthly high, surpassing the 55.0% number from April 2022.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.5% year-over-year in September (sequentially up by +50 basis points from August’s +8.0%). This +8.5% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.0% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -50 basis points from August’s +13.5%). The food-at-home figure of +13.0% is only -50 basis points below the 40+ year high number.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 to +4.2%. This is above the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q2 2022) median of +2.6%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q3 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +5.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +6.3% number from Q3 2021, and the +4.3% number from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 is at +16.5%.These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +36.1% number from Q3 2021 and the -18.7% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 is at +13.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept basis.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to -0.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.4% number from Q3 2021, and the +15.2% figure from Q3 2020. Our -0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +3.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.0% number from Q3 2021, and the +7.5% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 is at +14.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 to +4.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.5% number from Q3 2021, and the -30.8% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3 2022 is at +20.7%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +5.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.1% number from Q3 2021 and the +5.2% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 is at +26.6%. The fast-casual segment’s three-year sales numbers are the best for any major segment of the U.S. restaurant industry. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.