Restaurant Industry

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in June 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 56.2% figure is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +60 basis points year-over-year. This is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain attained in July 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2024 to +1.8%. This is the second-lowest quarterly showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Excluding last quarter’s (Q1 2024’s) +0.9% result, and looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q2 2024 was. Clearly, some meaningful portion of consumers are modifying their restaurant spending habits. Multiple large restaurant companies have indicated that consumers from lower-income households, in particular, are becoming more conservative in their approach to restaurants.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in June — sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +1.0%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in June (sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +4.0%). This marks the 16th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +1.9%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +23.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 2024 is at +27.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +0.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 2024 is at -0.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to +2.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 2024 is at +19.1%. Our +2.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +3.0%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2024 is at +27.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in May 2024. This 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. And while it’s also up by +60 basis points on a year-over-year basis, this is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain notched in July 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.8%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2024 is at +50.5%. This +50.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in May — sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +1.1%. This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +4.1%). This marks the 15th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Back on April 3rd, we published a report looking at changes in Burger King’s (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) menu prices for two different combos sold at 25 of its restaurants in California over the 2/15/24-4/2/24 time frame:

California raised its minimum wage for most quick-service/fast-casual employees to $20 per hour as of April 1, 2024. The bill containing this provision – AB1228 — was signed into law on September 28, 2023. As such, restaurant concepts had several months’ advance notice that per-hour labor costs would be going up meaningfully in this key state. To what extent, if any, did this affect unit-growth plans for California in 2024?

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $135.86]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in April 2024. This 55.8% figure is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +90 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in April — sequentially down by -10 basis points from March’s +1.2%.

We reviewed the recently-published Franchise Disclosure Documents (FDDs) for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King — the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest quick-service burger concepts in the U.S. Among our observations:

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.7% in March 2024. This 55.7% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +130 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.2% in March — sequentially up by +20 basis points from February’s +1.0%. This marks the first sequential rise in grocery pricing since August 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2024 to +1.3%. This is the lowest showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q1 2024 was. While some of this reflects adverse weather, particularly during January 2024, it could be a sign of challenging same-store sales in general for the rest of 2024, particularly if lower-income consumers remain more conservative in their restaurant spending than they were during 2023.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +1.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, the +2.3% number from Q1 2022, and the +11.0% result from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2024 is at +29.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +1.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, the +2.3% number from Q1 2022, and the +11.0% result from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2024 is at +29.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its traditional (non-satellite, non-mall) restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is looking like that target might be met in the not-too-distant future.

Over the course of this week, we have previously published notes detailing menu-price increases at 25 Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants in California, 20 Starbucks locations in California, 25 Taco Bells in California, and 25 Wendy’s in California. Those notes are available at:

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to +0.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -0.3% number from Q1 2020, the +17.2% figure from Q1 2021, the -3.1% number from Q1 2022, and the +4.2% result from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2024 is at +18.0%. Our +0.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to -1.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -15.7% number from Q1 2020, the -1.2% figure from Q1 2021, the +19.5% number from Q1 2022, and the +8.6% figure from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2024 is at +6.9%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Black Box Intelligence has released its latest monthly Black Box Index – an index which aggregates same-store sales for 175+ domestic restaurant concepts. Black Box notes that its data represents over 50,000 restaurant units, $75 billion in annual sales, and 300+ clients.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +4.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.6% figure from Q1 2020, +15.3% number from Q1 2021, the +7.7% figure from Q1 2022, and the +11.2% number from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2024 is at +40.3%. This +40.3% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and mid-March.

Earlier this month, we published notes examining whether or not lower gas prices correlated with better same-store sales for the family-dining segment, and for the quick-service burger sector. Those reports are available at:

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +1.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.4% number from Q1 2020, the +8.4% figure from Q1 2021, the +2.3% number from Q1 2022, and the +5.2% figure from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2024 is at +25.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Earlier this month, we published a note examining whether or not lower gas prices correlated with better same-store sales for the family-dining segment. That report is available at: » Family Dining: Do Lower Gas Prices Help Same-Store Sales? (kalinowskiequityresearch.com)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to -0.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.3% number from Q1 2020, the +9.8% figure from Q1 2021, the +18.9% figure from Q1 2022, and the +8.3% number from Q1 2023. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +22.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to -0.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -13.3% number from Q1 2020, the +9.8% figure from Q1 2021, the +18.9% figure from Q1 2022, and the +8.3% number from Q1 2023. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 is at +22.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.7% in February 2024. This 55.7% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +150 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in February (sequentially down by -20 basis points from January’s +1.2%). This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.5% year-over-year in February (sequentially down by -60 basis points from January’s +5.1%). This marks the 12th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Kalinowski Equity Research was founded in February 2018, and launched coverage April 11, 2018. How has the firm’s stockpicking fared in the nearly six years since that date?

At times in the past, we have guessed that – generally speaking – when gas prices go down, all else equal, family-dining sector same-store sales are helped. (Correspondingly, we have also guessed that when gas prices go up, all else equal, family-dining sector same-store sales are hampered.) Our supposition has been that when low-income and middle-income folks have a little more money in their wallets when they’re paying less for gas, and that some of that extra money finds it way into the registers at family-dining restaurants. To what degree, if any, does data back up this assertion?

Late last year, California’s Governor Gavin Newsom signed into law a revised version of Assembly Bill (AB) 1228. This act creates a so-called Fast Food Council that will have nine voting members on it. Our bottom line: as expected, the business-unfriendly members outnumber the business-friendly members. As such, expect the minimum wage for most quick-service and fast-casual employees in California to go up by +3.5% annually. This suggests that the minimum wage for these employees could get to at least $23.75 per hour as of January 1, 2029.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in January 2024. This 55.9% figure ties the all-time monthly record, and is up by +90 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.2% in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +1.3%). This +1.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +5.1% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +5.2%). This marks the 11th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2023 to +3.7%. This is -130 basis points sequentially below the Q3 2023 figure of +5.0%. However, it’s nearly equal to the 35-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2023) median of +3.6%. With a lot of macro factors that greatly impacted 2020-23 same-store sales fading into the background (albeit not all of them), we may be back – finally! — to what might be considered “normal” same-store sales trends. We’ll see if 2024 plays out that way (or not).

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in December 2023. This is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +0.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +10.7% number from Q4 2020, the +3.3% figure from Q4 2021, and the +1.9% number from Q4 2022. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 2023 is at +17.3%. So, not only does the quick-service pizza have the second-lowest one-year same-store sales figure for Q4 2023 (ahead of only fine fining), it also has the second-lowest four-year number for Q4 2023 (ahead of only the family dining segment). Our +0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in December (sequentially down by -40 basis points from November’s +1.7%). This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +5.2% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -10 basis points from November’s +5.3%). This marks the 10th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +3.5%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.2% number from Q4 2020, the +5.2% figure from Q4 2021, and the +6.3% number from Q4 2022. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 2023 is at +17.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +3.3% figure from Q4 2020, +14.0% number from Q4 2021, and the +5.6% figure from Q4 2022. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2023 is at +32.2%. This +32.2% figure is one of the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. In that frame of mind, we published a note examining this simply strategy back on January 8, 2023. With this note, we take an updated look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +2.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -18.9% number from Q4 2020, the +35.8% figure from Q4 2021, and the +6.3% figure from Q4 2022. On a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 is at +17.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +0.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -28.3% number from Q4 2020, the +37.4% figure from Q4 2021, and the +4.0% number from Q4 2022. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 2023 is at +3.5%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.