Recent Posts
Quick-Service: What Concept has the Next Large Breakfast Opportunity?
Over the last 10-15 years, multiple large restaurant concepts have launched a breakfast daypart in the U.S., with varying degrees of success (or lack of it). These concepts include three of the largest (top-ten sized) U.S. restaurant concepts, Taco Bell (4th-largest domestic restaurant concept, as ranked by U.S. systemwide sales), Burger King (7th-largest), and Subway (8th-largest). Which brings us to the question: which large, quick-service restaurant concept that doesn’t currently have a meaningful breakfast business, might have the courage one day to launch a breakfast business?
Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/21/2024)
Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $132.88]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (11/19/2024)
McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
Restaurants’ Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Sets New All-Time High
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.4% in October 2024. This is a new all-time high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. The year-over-year gain was about +40 basis points, marking slight sequential acceleration from September 2024’s +30 basis-point market-share rise.
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains Stubbornly Well Above the Historical Average
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in October — sequentially down by -20 basis points from September’s +1.3%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -10 basis points from September’s +3.9%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Has the Deceleration in the Restaurant Spending Growth Rate Bottomed Out?
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in September 2024. This 56.1% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Shrinks by -50 Basis Points
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in September — sequentially up by +40 basis points from August’s +0.9%. This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -10 basis points from August’s +4.0%). This marks the 19th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q3 Lacks Bite
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2024 to +0.8%. This is sequentially similar to Q2 2024’s +0.9% showing, not to mention Q1 2024’s +0.9% result. This is not encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, the first three quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index (10/8/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.3%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +20.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index (10/2/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +0.2%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 2024 is at +25.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (10/1/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +19.2%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index (9/26/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to -0.4%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index (9/24/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2024 is at +22.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (9/18/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
Restaurant Spending Growth Rate Continues to Sequentially Shrink
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in August 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains Well Above the Historical Average
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +0.9% in August — sequentially down by -20 basis points from July’s +1.1%. This +0.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -10 basis points from July’s +4.1%). This marks the 18th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Restaurants: Same-Store Sales Correlations Involving Taco Bell
We have published four reports in recent days looking at various domestic same-store sales correlations for large restaurant concepts within their sector. However, this report looks at Taco Bell – by quite a wide margin, the largest concept in the Quick-Service Other space as we define it, via nearly $15.0 billion in 2023 U.S. systemwide sales – and compares its same-store sales with those of several quick-service and fast-casual concepts regardless of sector. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Taco Bell?”
Casual Dining: Same-Store Sales Correlations for Olive Garden, TXRH, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback Steakhouse, and CAKE
In this report, we look at the correlations for Olive Garden, Texas Roadhouse, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback Steakhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory – six of the seven largest casual dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When The Cheesecake Factory’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Applebee’s?”
Family Dining: Same-Store Sales Correlations for IHOP, Denny’s, and Cracker Barrel
In this report, we look at the correlations for IHOP, Denny’s, and Cracker Barrel – the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest family dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Cracker Barrel’s same-store sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Denny’s and IHOP?”
Quick-Service: Same-Store Sales Correlations for Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns
In this report, we look at the correlations for Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Domino’s sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Papa Johns?”
Restaurants: The Next 53-Week Fiscal Years for 30 Restaurant Companies
In this report, we look at the specific fiscal year-ends for 30 restaurant companies, and note when the next 53-week fiscal year will be for many of them.
Quick-Service: Same-Store Sales Correlations for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, and Jack in the Box
In this report, we look at the correlations for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, and Jack in the Box in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s sales go down, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Wendy’s?”
Restaurants’ Growth in Market Share During July 2024 the Worst Since February 2021
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in July 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.8% figure is only -50 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +10 basis points year-over-year. This is the smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Stays at 300bp for 5th Month in a Row
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in July — sequentially the same as June’s +1.1%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in July (sequentially equivalent to June’s +4.1%). This marks the 17th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Starbucks Decaffeinates Chipotle by Naming Brian Niccol as Starbucks’ New CEO
In a stunning move, Starbucks names Brian Niccol as its new CEO and Chairman. Mr. Niccol, of course, had been the CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill since March 5, 2018. Our bottom line: good for Starbucks, acting quickly given its now apparent “buyer’s remorse” with its prior CEO. And while this will be viewed as bad for Chipotle in the short term, Mr. Niccol had been CEO there 6+ years, so perhaps the opportunity to bring some new thinking to that highly-respected company isn’t the worst thing in the world for the long run.
Restaurants’ Rate of Market Share Gains Continues to Decelerate
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in June 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 56.2% figure is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +60 basis points year-over-year. This is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain attained in July 2022.
Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q2 Shows Top-Line Challenges
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2024 to +1.8%. This is the second-lowest quarterly showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Excluding last quarter’s (Q1 2024’s) +0.9% result, and looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q2 2024 was. Clearly, some meaningful portion of consumers are modifying their restaurant spending habits. Multiple large restaurant companies have indicated that consumers from lower-income households, in particular, are becoming more conservative in their approach to restaurants.
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Stays at 300 Basis Points
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in June — sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +1.0%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in June (sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +4.0%). This marks the 16th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index (7/10/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +1.9%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +23.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index (7/8/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 2024 is at +27.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index (7/2/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +0.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 2024 is at -0.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (7/1/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to +2.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 2024 is at +19.1%. Our +2.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index (6/25/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +3.0%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2024 is at +27.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.
Restaurants’ Rate of Market Share Gains Decelerates
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in May 2024. This 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. And while it’s also up by +60 basis points on a year-over-year basis, this is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain notched in July 2022.
Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (6/17/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.8%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2024 is at +50.5%. This +50.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains at 300 Basis Points
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in May — sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +1.1%. This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +4.1%). This marks the 15th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Burger King: Updated Details on Menu Price Increases at 25 Burger Kings in California (2/15/24-6/3/24)
Back on April 3rd, we published a report looking at changes in Burger King’s (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) menu prices for two different combos sold at 25 of its restaurants in California over the 2/15/24-4/2/24 time frame:
Quick-Service Restaurants: California Unit Growth Plans for 2024 vs. 2023
California raised its minimum wage for most quick-service/fast-casual employees to $20 per hour as of April 1, 2024. The bill containing this provision – AB1228 — was signed into law on September 28, 2023. As such, restaurant concepts had several months’ advance notice that per-hour labor costs would be going up meaningfully in this key state. To what extent, if any, did this affect unit-growth plans for California in 2024?
Pizza Sector: What Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (5/29/2024)
Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $135.86]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
Burger Sector: What Same-Store Sales Trends Hint at re: Average Unit Volumes (5/23/2024)
McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.
Restaurants’ Market Share Still Gaining, But Grocery Spending Moving Up
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in April 2024. This 55.8% figure is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +90 basis points on a year-over-year basis.
Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains Steady
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in April — sequentially down by -10 basis points from March’s +1.2%.
Burger Sector: FDD Review (McDonald’s/MCD, Wendy’s/WEN, and Burger King/QSR)
We reviewed the recently-published Franchise Disclosure Documents (FDDs) for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King — the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest quick-service burger concepts in the U.S. Among our observations:
Restaurants’ Market-Share Advantages Blunted by Slowing Spending on Food
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.7% in March 2024. This 55.7% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +130 basis points on a year-over-year basis.
Restaurant Pricing Sequentially Decelerates While Grocery Prices Tick Up
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.2% in March — sequentially up by +20 basis points from February’s +1.0%. This marks the first sequential rise in grocery pricing since August 2022.
Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q1 2024 Shows Sluggishness
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2024 to +1.3%. This is the lowest showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q1 2024 was. While some of this reflects adverse weather, particularly during January 2024, it could be a sign of challenging same-store sales in general for the rest of 2024, particularly if lower-income consumers remain more conservative in their restaurant spending than they were during 2023.
Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index (4/8/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +1.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, the +2.3% number from Q1 2022, and the +11.0% result from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2024 is at +29.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.
Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index (4/8/2024)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +1.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, the +2.3% number from Q1 2022, and the +11.0% result from Q1 2023. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2024 is at +29.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.
Chick-fil-A Sets a Spectacular New AUV Record for its Non-Satellite, Non-Mall Franchised Restaurants
We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its traditional (non-satellite, non-mall) restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is looking like that target might be met in the not-too-distant future.
Burger King: Details on Menu Price Increases at 25 of its Restaurants in California
Over the course of this week, we have previously published notes detailing menu-price increases at 25 Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants in California, 20 Starbucks locations in California, 25 Taco Bells in California, and 25 Wendy’s in California. Those notes are available at: