Recent Posts

PZZA: How Does Papa John’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

Papa John’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in early May. How do PZZA shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from Papa John’s, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the […]

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5:05 PM

PZZA: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

With this report, we increase our Q1E North American same-store sales forecast for Papa John’s by +130 basis points, to +13.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +12.9%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — […]

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4:12 PM

PZZA (Post-Call): Will Q1 be “Epic”?

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $102.64) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.40, matching our $0.40 forecast, but coming below sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.45. Keep in mind, special year-end bonuses hampered Q4 EPS by approximately -6 cents, and this may not have been taken into account by some sell-side firms’ estimates. Fourth-quarter North American same-store sales rose by +13.5%, but this was short of our +15.0% projection and consensus of +14.2%. […]

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5:49 PM

Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E to +12.1%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. We believe that December same-store sales were likely the best month of the quarter, while October was helped by arguably the busiest Halloween ever for pizza delivery/carryout. That said, our updated +12.1% figure for Q4 2020 is sequentially […]

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12:00 AM

Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

Both Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.57) and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $80.36) begin lapping very difficult year-over-year domestic same-store sales comparisons in Q2 2021. What can we learn about the recent history of restaurant concepts that have lapped difficult comparisons, in this regard? And, what might Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) teach us about what to expect for Domino’s and Papa John’s domestic same-store sales in 2021? Our bottom line […]

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12:00 AM

Large Restaurant Concepts Closing a Lot Less Units than Independent

Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020. By our math, we look for large restaurant concepts — representing about 37% of the U.S. […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA An “Epic” Update to our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

We look for Papa John’s to launch Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas nationwide in the U.S. shortly, with December 28, 2020 (the first day of Papa John’s fiscal 2021) one possible official launch date. This would not only be ahead of Super Bowl Sunday (scheduled for February 7, 2021), but also ahead of New Year’s Eve. In any case, it looks like a Q1 2021 launch date is likely, and sooner during that quarter rather than […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) A Q3 EPS Beat… Will Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas Launch in Q1

Earlier today, Papa John’s announced Q3 EPS of $0.35, ahead of our $0.30 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.32 (according to Consensus Metrix). Given an all-time high quarterly cheese cost in Q3 (block cheese in general averaged about $2.25 per pound in Q3) and costs that hampered rival Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.52) Q3 EPS — some of these costs COVID-related — PZZA shares could benefit from a “relief factor” as it trades today. We attribute […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Possible Implications from Domino’s Lead to Updated Forecasts

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $403.46) reported a Q3 EPS miss relative to our expectations (and sell-side consensus). This miss was not caused by same-store sales trends, which came in above expectations for both the U.S. and International segments in Q3. Below the top line, multiple issues came into play, including spending related to the pandemic (such as higher pay for front-line employees, higher sick pay, and the need to buy more cleaning equipment), and […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3E to +13.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. At present, sell-side consensus is less optimistic than us as regards the quickservice pizza segment’s same-store sales for the third quarter. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index, and […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA The Papa John’s Train Keeps a-Rollin’

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $98.54) provided what we view as a favorable business update. For Period 8 (July 27-August 23), North American same-store sales rose by +24.2%. While this is sequentially worse than the previously-reported +30.3% figure for Period 7 (June 29-July 26), it nevertheless is obviously still a very robust number. We retain our full-Q3E North American same-store sales projection of +25.0%, which implicitly incorporates an approximate +21.5% estimate for the five […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Opportunities to Grow the U.S. Franchisee Base (and Refranchise)

Quick-service pizza sector same-store sales have performed the best of any sector in the U.S. restaurant industry the last few months. This likely means that some large franchise companies who seek opportunities within the restaurant industry may examine possibilities in the pizza sector. Carryout/delivery pizza plays very well in a world uncertain about how COVID-19 and related issues will impact the future. On top of that, not only has Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $96.15) put […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) A Shaq-tastic Q2 and July

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $99.14) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.48, coming in meaningfully above our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.44. We had been concerned that costs related to franchisee assistance — which amounted to a -$0.12 hit in Q2 — would hold back Q2 earnings, but the strength of the business (North American same-store sales up a previously-announced +28.0%) more than made up for this. Built into our Q2E estimate […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA The Bull and Bear Case on Papa John’s

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $88.26). While we maintain our Buy rating on PZZA — it continues to be our top small/mid-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in PZZA to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is. Key parts of the bullish point of view are: (1) the […]

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12:00 AM

Quick-Service Pizza Market Share Opportunities for DPZ & PZZA

Is it possible the Street is underestimating sales and market-share opportunities in 2021 for the larger publicly-traded quick-service pizza concepts? We believe that Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $374.09) and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $83.66) both remain well-positioned for the future for multiple reasons, but this particular factor may be underappreciated. Incidentally, it’s possible for Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $86.55]) to benefit from the same issue, although Pizza Hut will over the short-to-medium […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Raising EPS Estimates Based on Appetizing Sales Trends

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.32) reported that its North American same-store sales rose by a remarkable +33.5% for the April 27-May 24 timeframe. This comes on the heels of the previously-announced +26.9% for March 30-April 26, suggesting that Q2-to-date North American same-store sales are up by roughly +30% through May 24th. We raise our full-Q2E forecast by +900 basis points to +28.0%, which includes implied projections for May 25-June 28 of +20% for […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA The Latest Test Menu Items from Papa John’s U.S. are Epic

Get ready for more innovation from Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $78.11) — we have learned that Papa John’s U.S. is testing several varieties of “Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas” in at least one test market (Indianapolis). We believe there is a chance that one or more stuffed crust pizzas could receive a nationwide rollout by the end of 2020. The Papa John’s selling Stuffed Crust Pizzas that we came across is within the city limits of […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Adjusting Q2E-Q3E EPS Estimates a Little More

Earlier today regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16), we adjusted our 2020E EPS estimate downward by -40 cents to $1.15, reflecting: (1) a -50 cent hit for Q1A-Q3E adjustments to how Papa John’s records franchisee financial assistance (related to royalty relief and the discretionary marketing fund), with -26 cents of this having taken place in Q1, and our estimate of -12 cent hits each to Q2E and Q3E, and (2) +10 cents reflecting better-than-expected April […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) Well Blow Me Down! April Same-Store Sales Strong 2 the Finish

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16) reported Q1 EPS of $0.15, short of our $0.40 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.41. However, the difference largely results from an accounting change in which “adjusted (non-GAAP) financial results… no longer present certain financial assistance provided to the North American system in the form of royalty relief and discretionary marketing fund investments as Special charges.” For Q1 2020, the impact to adjusted EPS […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Some Cheesy Estimate Revisions

The price of block cheese has deteriorated from $1.8375 per pound as of March 23rd to $1.01 per pound as of April 14th. In our coverage list, the largest potential beneficiary of this dynamic is Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), which owns and operates about 18% of its North American store base (or to look at it another way, Papa John’s owns and operates about 11% of its worldwide store base). On its February 26th conference […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

We adjust our North America blended (company-owned and franchised combined) same-store sales estimates for Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) as follows: Q1E 2020: up by +130 basis points to an actual of +5.3% Q2E 2020: down by -30 basis points to +3.7% Q3E 2020: down by -10 basis points to +2.9% Q4E 2020: stays at +2.5% Full-year 2020E: up by +20 basis points to +3.6% Full-year 2021E: up by +40 basis points to +3.0% For details […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) Brand-Fixing Efforts Bearing Fruit, But EPS Guidance Light

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $62.10) reported Q4 2019 adjusted EPS of $0.37. This exceeded our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.33. Fourth-quarter same-store sales for Papa John’s North America rose by +3.5%, topping our +2.5% projection and consensus of +2.4%. Garlic parmesan crust pizza — Papa John’s first change to its crust in decades — likely was a helpful hit. Looking ahead to full-year 2020, Papa John’s targets […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Our Meeting with Management in Louisville 2

We recently met with Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) — including (1) President and CEO Rob Lynch, (2) CFO Joe Smith, and (3) VP Strategic Planning Steve Coke — in Louisville, Kentucky. We thank them for their time! Topics of interest that were asked about include culinary innovation, relations with franchisees, and why Mr. Lynch decided to leave his prior employer to become Papa John’s CEO. We maintain our Buy rating on PZZA, and note the […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) A Welcome Return to Positive Comps December 18th Field Trip

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.21, short of our $0.23 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.22. The company’s full-year 2019 adjusted EPS target range stays at $1.00-$1.20. We keep our Q4E EPS projection unchanged at $0.35. Given that Q3 missed our EPS estimate by two cents, this brings down our full-year 2019E EPS forecast by two cents, to $1.15. Please note that as of this […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Updating Introducing EPS Estimates Portugal Papa Slam Promos etc

With this report, we introduce our quarterly EPS estimates for 2020E for Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy). They are as follows: (1) Q1E $0.42, (2) Q2E $0.40, (3) Q3E $0.31, and (4) Q4E $0.42. These quarterlies sum to our (unchanged) full-year 2020E EPS estimate of $1.55. We also introduce our full-year 2021E EPS projection of $1.75 at this time. We maintain our Buy rating on PZZA, and briefly note the following: * Following a dust-up that […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Updating Our Rating on Papa John’s Given CEO Switch

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA) announced a CEO change, bringing in Rob Lynch — most recently President at privately-held Arby’s Restaurant Group — to be the new CEO. We upgrade the shares of PZZA to Buy (from Neutral) based on this switch, as we expect Mr. Lynch to be a catalyst for a greater pace of change at the company. We believe that Mr. Lynch’s priorities will include: (1) better aligning the Papa John’s system […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) Shaq May be a Hero, But He Favors Papadias

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Neutral) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.28, below our $0.29 EPS estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.31. A shift in the timing of an operations conference hampered G&A by about $2 million in Q2 from a year-over-year perspective, but should help Q3 year-over-year. We calculate that this is roughly a $0.04-$0.05 amount from an EPS standpoint. The company reiterates its full-year target range […]

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12:00 AM

Correlating Grubhub Data and U.S. Restaurant Sectors Same-Store Sales Trends

With third-party delivery aggregators continuing to grow, providing additional convenience to the consumer, we decided to look at various quarterly data provided by Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated), correlating these data sets with various sectors’ same-store sales (for U.S. chain restaurants). To do this, we used six different Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index sector indices, which are sorted by brand type and based on the weighted-average components from 48 different publiclytraded restaurant concepts. (The weightings are based […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Updating Our Rating on Papa John’s to…

Sometimes fighting the trend is futile, and perhaps this is one of those times — we downgrade the shares of Papa John’s (PZZA) today to Neutral (from Buy), cutting our losses. While we still believe that the Papa John’s brand will be turned around in the long run, near-term risks have noticeably increased from where we sit, and the downgrade is warranted based on: (1) the possibility that founder John Schnatter could seek to sell […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA 2019 Franchise Disclosure Document Review for Papa John’s

Not too long ago, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) filed its Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, we would note that the On-Line Transaction Fee for 2019 is “1.75% of Net Sales via Internet on-line ordering,” as compared to the 2018 FDD which shows […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Our Meeting with Management in Louisville

We recently met with Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) — including President & CEO Steve Ritchie, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating and Growth Officer Michael R. Nettles, Senior Vice President & CFO Joseph H. Smith, and Vice President of Investor Relations & Strategy Steve Coke — in Louisville, Kentucky. We thank them for their time! Topics of interest that we asked about include new brand ambassador (as well as board member and franchisee) Shaquille O’Neal […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2E by +40 basis points, to +1.7%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is a touch less optimistic than us as regards Q2E. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index, […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Every Long Journey Begins with the First Steps

After Tuesday’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.31, surpassing our $0.24 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.24. We attribute the earnings outperformance primarily to better-than-expected Domestic Company-Owned Restaurant Expenses/Domestic Company-Owned Restaurant Sales (33.4% actual vs. 35.5% projected). Systemwide same-store sales in the core North American market were down by -6.9%, although this was actually slightly better than our -7.4% projection and consensus at -7.3%. Papa […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re Chick-fil-A, U.S. Quick-Service Chicken Market Share Trends, & PZZA

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding privately-held Chick-fil-A, quick-service chicken sector market-share trends in the U.S., and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy): * CHICK-FIL-A. We tried searching for a formal announcement about this, and didn’t find any… in fact we tried to find any mention at all about this, and — with the exception of what appears to have been a small update to Chick-fil-A’s website over the weekend — we found exactly nothing. So […]

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12:00 AM

A Quick Look at the Fastest-Shrinking Restaurant Brands in the U.S.

Yesterday, we published a report highlighting the 20 fastest-growing restaurant brands in the U.S. (of those 175 restaurant brands that generated at least $200 million in U.S. systemwide sales during 2018). It would be wonderful if all restaurant brands did was grow, but alas, that is not the case. The restaurant industry is incredibly dynamic — it remains “The Endless Shakeout,” to use the memorable phrase coined in the 1970s by then-Salomon Brothers restaurant-industry analyst […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re U.S. Pizza-Sector Market Share Trends, MCD, and Luckin Coffee

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding pizza-sector market-share trends in the U.S., McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), and privately-held Luckin Coffee: * U.S. PIZZA-SECTOR MARKET-SHARE TRENDS. In the U.S., the quick-service pizza segment generated $42.95 billion in sales during 2018, according to data from Technomic. This represents year-over-year growth of +3.5%. Putting these numbers in context, the overall U.S. restaurant industry totaled about $556.36 billion in 2018 sales, up by +3.6% year-over-year. (FYI, Technomic projects U.S. […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re PZZA, Top 25 Restaurant Chains, BLMN, and Luckin Coffee

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), the top 25 restaurant concepts in the U.S. (as measured by domestic systemwide sales), Outback Steakhouse (owned by Bloomin’ Brands [BLMN; Not Rated]), and privatelyheld Luckin Coffee: * PAPA JOHN’S. Kalinowski Equity Research is hosting a headquarters visit to Papa John’s (PZZA) in Louisville, Kentucky on Tuesday, May 21st. Management attendees will include President & CEO Steve Ritchie, Senior Vice President & CFO Joseph […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA CHANGING OUR RATING ON PAPA JOHN’S BASED ON…

We upgrade the shares of Papa John’s (PZZA) to Buy (from Neutral). We have been impressed with the strides Papa John’s has made with (and following) the recent strategic investment of Starboard Value, including the recent naming of basketball legend and businessman Shaquille O’Neal to Papa John’s board of directors and as a brand ambassador (and franchisee), and the appointment of former Subway SVP of Marketing for North America Karlin Linhardt as Papa John’s Global […]

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12:00 AM

Introducing our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we introduce our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1E at -0.1%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January 2019 and most of February 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is a little more optimistic than us as regards Q1E. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index, and apply the current sell-side […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA (Post-Call) Delivers Better-than-Feared 2019 Targets

After today’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Neutral) reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $0.15, above our $0.12 forecast, and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.15. The Q4 North American same-store sales decline of -8.1% had been previously announced. New are the company’s unveiled targets for 2019, including adjusted EPS of $1.00- $1.20, and North American same-store sales down by -1.0% to -5.0%. January 2019 same-store sales for North America have previously been announced […]

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12:00 AM

Restaurants The Set-Up into the Print re CAKE, WEN, DIN, DPZ, and PZZA

A number of restaurant companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings over the February 20-26 time frame, including The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral), Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral), Dine Brands (DIN; Buy), Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), and Papa John’s (PZZA; Neutral). In this report, we look at the set-up into the print for each of these five companies: * THE CHEESECAKE FACTORY. The Cheesecake Factory is scheduled to report its Q4 2018 earnings after the market close on […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA CHANGING OUR RATING TO…

We downgrade the shares of Papa John’s (PZZA) to Neutral (from Buy). Our ratings change reflects the following: (1) our original upgrade to Buy reflected the possibility of Papa John’s being acquired; that possibility seems resolved with it unlikely to happen (albeit with the silver lining of yesterday’s news of Starboard’s $200 million strategic investment, which helped the shares up by about +9% yesterday), (2) our view that the business was getting “less bad” in […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA The Papa John’s Ship Steers Hard to Starboard

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) announced that it has received a $200 million strategic investment from Starboard Value LP. In addition, Starboard CEO Jeffery Smith has been added to Papa John’s board and now becomes Papa John’s Chairman. Also, the board adds Anthony Sanfilippo (former Chairman and CEO of Pinnacle Entertainment) and Steve Ritchie (current President and CEO of Papa John’s). On this latter front, and particularly with Mr. Ritchie’s appointment being announced in […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q4E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (Again)

With this report, we once again raise our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E, this time from +1.2% to +2.4%. (In late November, we had already moved our Q4E index number from +0.3% to +1.2%, based on our checks regarding the first half of the fourth quarter.) Our latest increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the second half of November and all of […]

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12:00 AM

PZZA Our Data-Driven Checks Lead to Updated Q4E Forecasts

Based on our recent, data-driven checks, we raise our Q4E 2018 North American same-store sales forecast for Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) by +330 basis points, to -5.5%. This places us 150 basis points better than sell-side consensus, according to Consensus Metrix data. Also, best-case, some further update may be possible when Papa John’s reports its Q4 results (likely report date late February), as our checks actually came in somewhat better than our -5.5% updated forecast. […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re MCD, PZZA, and the Top 25 Largest International Foodservice Chains

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), Papa John’s International (PZZA; Buy), and the Top 25 Largest International Foodservice Chains: * McDONALD’S. Business Insider reports that “Leaked photos reveal that McDonald’s is rolling out its new Cheesy Bacon Fries across the U.S. — McDonald’s is rolling out Cheesy Bacon Fries in 2019. The fast-food chain is taking the bacon-topped dish national early next year, a McDonald’s employee with knowledge of the situation […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re DNKN, Burger King (owned by QSR), PZZA, & Inspire Brands CAKE

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]), Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), and privately-held Inspire Brands as it relates to The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral): * DUNKIN’. Breaking news! Dunkin’ is testing Bagel Minis in at least one market, according to an Instagram post we’ve seen, and info from our industry contacts. Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re Taco Bell (owned by YUM), JACK, and PZZA

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Taco Bell (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Buy]), Jack in the Box (JACK; Not Rated), and Papa John’s International (PZZA; Buy): * TACO BELL. Back in our September 12th report “Tidbits re: Taco Bell (owned by YUM), SBUX, and MCD,” we noted how Taco Bell planned to launch a new $1 limitedtime-only burrito nationwide on December 27th (along with a $5 box for this limited time offering). We […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q4E18 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E from +0.3% to +1.2%. This 90 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance so far for this segment during September and the first half of October. Sell-side consensus is currently a little more optimistic than us regarding the outlook for Q4E same-store sales for the quick-service pizza sector. When we weight the segment components identically […]

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12:00 AM
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