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CMG (Post-Call): Same-Store Sales Trends Improve; Tax Rate Helps Q1 EPS

After today’s market close, Chipotle reported adjusted Q1E EPS of $5.70. This was slightly below our $5.75 estimate, but slightly above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $5.66. However, the adjusted Q1 tax rate came to 16.7%. This was meaningfully more favorable than our 25.0% forecast and consensus of 25.0%. We calculate that this difference between the actual adjusted tax rate and our 25.0% forecast helped Q1 EPS by about +59 cents.

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5:46 PM

CMG: Dear Chipotle Mexican Grill, Will You Be Our Valentine?

Shares of CMG are down by -10.7% year-to-date, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s -7.3% decline. Since we initiated coverage of Chipotle Mexican Grill on November 15, 2021, CMG shares have declined by -15.1%, versus the S&P 500’s -5.6% decrease. This provides some context for the following fundamental items that, in our view, have improved since mid-November:

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7:00 AM

CMG: Kalinowski Equity Research Initiates Coverage of Chipotle Mexican Grill

Amongst the positives and opportunities for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) are its great-tasting food that is responsibly sourced, (2) its speedy service, (3) Chipotle’s status as the largest concept in the fastest-growing major segment (fast-casual) of the U.S. restaurant industry, (4) the company’s growing use of “Chipotlanes,” units with drive-thrus that feature a Chipotle take on that method of service, (5) Chipotle’s digital capabilities, which are amongst the very best in the restaurant industry (and which also include over 24.5 million loyalty-program users as of the end of Q3), (6) the pace of menu innovation, which is quicker than it usually has been in Chipotle’s history, (7) Chipotle’s status as a highly-desirable tenant for prime real-estate locations, (8) Chipotle’s high (and growing) degree of cultural relevancy, and (9) Chipotle’s “Real Foodprint” sustainability impact tracker, which resonates in particular with younger folks.

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4:10 PM
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