Recent Posts

DIN (Post-Call): Higher G&A Expenses Now Expected for 2021

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.94, well above our $1.65 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.69. Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 came to $71.7 million, surpassing consensus of $67.0 million. Applebee’s same-store sales rose by +102.2% in Q2 on a one-year basis. On a two-year basis, the number was +10.5%, which was slightly above our +10.0% projection. Management points out that “Relative to 2019, Applebee’s posted its best […]

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1:20 PM

DIN: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Projections (re: IHOP)

Although family dining segment same-store sales seem to be lagging those of most other U.S. restaurant sectors on a two-year basis, they have still come in somewhat better than we have been anticipating. As such, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for IHOP to +128.0% (from +100.0%). This implies a two-year projection of about -7%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at […]

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4:51 PM

DIN: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Projections (re: Applebee’s)

Based on continued strength in the casual dining segment over April, May, and early June, coupled with what we believe has been a fair amount of national advertising done by Applebee’s as of late, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s to +117.4% (from +90.0%). This implies a two-year projection of +10.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at +103.5%. Furthermore, […]

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4:23 PM

DIN (Post-Call): Sales Recovering Despite IHOP Turning Adam Sandler Away

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.75, well above our $0.80 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.87. We attribute the EPS outperformance relative to our forecast to: (1) a much more favorable tax rate than projection (-6.6% actual vs. 25.0% projected); this helped Q1 EPS by about +46 cents, (2) better-than-expected Cost of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues as a percentage of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues (47.9% actual vs. […]

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1:22 PM

DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts for IHOP

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +600 basis points, to -5.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -9.9%. Our increased forecast represents (inter-related) factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year family dining sector sales trends, (2) benefits from stimulus-related consumer spending in March, and (3) “spring fever” perhaps finding itself a little more in bloom than usual amongst consumers […]

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4:02 PM

DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s by +450 basis points, to +1.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -3.5%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year casual dining sector trends, (2) Applebee’s resumption of national advertising in early March (which it did not have in January and February), coupled with (3) our belief that the Applebee’s […]

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4:16 PM

DIN (Post-Call): Applebee’s Disappoints, But Multiple Silver Linings Emerge

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $0.39, falling short of our recently-reduced $0.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.67. The main culprit was Q4 2020 U.S. same-store sales for Applebee’s, which declined by -17.6%. This was worse than our recently-reduced -7.5% projection and consensus of -7.5%. One small silver lining: the -17.6% number outperformed the U.S. chain casual-dining segment in Q4 by about +9 percentage points. For […]

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5:45 PM

DIN: How Does Dine Brands’ Stock Trade Heading Into, and During, Earnings?

Dine Brands plans to release its Q4 2020 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, March 2nd. How do DIN shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and on the day of an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 23 prior earnings releases from Dine Brands, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the scheduled earnings […]

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6:12 PM

DIN: Updating Our Forecasts Ahead of March 2nd Earnings Release

Dine Brands plans to release its Q4 2020 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, March 2nd. As regards Q4E, we retain our IHOP U.S. same-store sales forecast of -30.0%, but we reduce our Applebee’s U.S. same-store sales projection by -200 basis points, to -7.5%. Dine Brands has previously announced that for the first four weeks of Q4E, IHOP’s same-store sales declined by -24.0%, while Applebee’s same-store sales decreased by -1.9%. Our updated Q4E projections […]

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4:41 PM

Family Dining Market Share Opportunities for IHOP, Denny’s, and CBRL (Updated)

About six months ago, we published a report examining market-share opportunities within the family dining sector. In this report, we update our numbers. One of the important changes is that we now look for 10%-25% of the family dining restaurants in the U.S. that were in operation as of the start of 2020 to be closed permanently by the end of March 2021. (Previously, we were looking for 5%-10% of family dining restaurants to be […]

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12:00 AM

Casual Dining Market Share Opportunities for Large Concepts

About six months ago, we published a report examining market-share opportunities within the casual dining sector. In this report, we update our numbers. One of the important changes is that we now look for 8%-20% of the casual dining restaurants in the U.S. that were in operation as of the start of 2020 to be closed permanently by the end of March 2021. (Previously, we were looking for 3%-15% of casual dining restaurants to be […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4E to -23.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during October and November. Our implied numbers for this October, November, and December are approximately -20%, -23%, and -27%, respectively. Optimists (including us) will point out that at some point in 2021, perhaps even in early 2021, trends should start to improve again […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4E to -18.4%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during October and November. Our implied numbers for these October, November, and December are approximately -14%, -19%, and -22%, respectively. Optimists (including us) will point out that at some point in 2021, perhaps even in early 2021, trends should start to improve again […]

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12:00 AM

Large Restaurant Concepts Closing a Lot Less Units than Independent

Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020. By our math, we look for large restaurant concepts — representing about 37% of the U.S. […]

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12:00 AM

Restaurants Full-Service Same-Store Sales Decelerating So Far in November

Based on our data-driven checks, we believe that same-store sales for U.S. chain restaurants in the casual dining, family dining, and fine dining segments are all showing sequential deceleration for the first half of November relative to fullOctober. This new trend follows 5-6 consecutive months of either sequentially improving full-service same-store sales (or at least not meaningfully deteriorating sequential same-store sales). For U.S. chain casual dining, first half of November same-store sales appear to be […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) Applebee’s Comeback Impressive But G&A Costs Rising

Earlier today, Dine Brands — parent company of the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant concepts — reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.80, coming in well ahead of our $0.22 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37. A lowerthan-expected Q3 tax rate helped EPS by roughly +20 cents; we look for the tax rate to be at (or near) 26% in 2021E, but for Q4E we now project a tax rate of 41%. (Management […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3E to -19.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Our implied numbers for these three months are about -24%, -19%, and -16%, respectively. At present, sell-side consensus is less optimistic than us as regards the casual dining segment’s same-store sales for the third quarter. When we weight […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3E to -29.0%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during July 2020 and August 2020, as well as our best guess for what September 2020 is bringing us. The approximate monthly figures we use are -35% for July 2020, -29% for August 2020, and -25% for September 2020. As part of this, […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Updating Our Q3E Same-Store Sales Forecasts for Applebee’s & IHOP

With this report, and based on our data-driven checks, we raise our Q3E U.S. samestore sales projections for both Applebee’s U.S. and IHOP U.S. to sell-side high forecasts (according to Consensus Metrix). For Applebee’s, we take up our Q3E U.S. same-store sales estimate by +50 basis points, to -14.5% — becoming the new sell-side high. Sell-side consensus is at -16.3% as of this writing. For IHOP, we increase our Q3E U.S. same-store sales forecast by […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Highlights from Our Conference Call Featuring Dine Brands

Yesterday, we hosted the latest in our “Ask the Experts” series of conference calls, this time around with featured speakers from Dine Brands: CFO Thomas Song, and Executive Director Investor Relations Ken Diptee. We thank them for their participation and insights. A replay of this conference call is available; for dial in-info please contact: sales@kalinowskiequityresearch.com We maintain our Buy rating on Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $59.94), and note some of the highlights from this conference […]

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12:00 AM

DIN “Ask the Experts” Call Series Dine Brands

Kalinowski Equity Research invites you to participate in our latest “Ask the Experts” conference call, to take place tomorrow — Wednesday, September 9th — starting at Noon Eastern time. The featured speakers will be Dine Brands’ CFO, Thomas Song; and Executive Director, Investor Relations, Ken Diptee. If you are interested in joining the call, please e-mail caroline@analysthub.com or your sales contact. Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

DIN A Closer Look at Neighborhood Wings by Applebees

Given the potential for the “Neighborhood Wings by Applebee’s” brand (and potentially other virtual brands to be launched in the future by Applebee’s parent company Dine Brands?), we raise our full-year 2021E EPS estimate by +20 cents, to $5.00. This places us above current sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $4.83. Recent comments by the management of Brinker International (EAT; Not Rated) — the owner of Chili’s and Maggiano’s — should be viewed as […]

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12:00 AM

DIN A Closer Look at IHOP’s Development Agreement w TravelCenters of America

In October 2019, IHOP — owned by Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $55.37) — announced a franchise development agreement with TravelCenters of America (TA; Not Rated) to open up to 94 IHOP restaurants in TA and Petro locations across the U.S. This is the largest franchise deal in IHOP’s history. That announcement can be viewed at: https://www.ihop.com/en/news/2019/ihop-and-travelcenters-of-americaannounce-plans-to-open-nearly-100-restaurants We calculate that once these 94 restaurants are up and running, it would add +35 cents or more to […]

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12:00 AM

DIN The Bull and Bear Cases on Dine Brands

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $53.56). While we maintain our Buy rating on DIN — in fact, we believe there is even more reason to be bullish on DIN following its Q2 earnings release and related conference call — it is good for investors interested in DIN to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on […]

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12:00 AM

DIN “Ask the Experts” Call Series Dine Brands Sept 9

Kalinowski Equity Research invites you to participate in our latest “Ask the Experts” conference call, to take place on Wednesday, September 9th starting at Noon Eastern time. The featured speakers will be Dine Brands’ CFO, Thomas Song; and Executive Director, Investor Relations, Ken Diptee. If you are interested in joining the call, please e-mail caroline@analysthub.com or your sales contact. Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) Welcome Back, Indeed

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $46.69) reported Adjusted Q2 EPS of -$0.87, which was better than our forecast of -$1.00 and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.94. Second-quarter same-store sales at Applebee’s declined by -49.4%. This is meaningfully better than our -60.0% projection and consensus of -56.9%. Even better news: Applebee’s same-store sales in Q3 through July 26th are down by “only” -18.4%. This compares with our current full-Q3E projection of -30.0% […]

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12:00 AM

Casual Dining Market Share Opportunities for Large Concepts 6.25

Is it possible the Street is underestimating sales and market-share opportunities in 2021 for many of the larger publicly-traded casual dining concepts? We believe that the top ten casual dining concepts in the U.S. generated aggregate 2019 U.S. sales of about $29.3 billion, giving these concepts in aggregate about 14.4% market share of the $203.6 billion casual dining sector. Market-share opportunities for these ten concepts could come about as smaller chains and mom-and-pops independents encounter […]

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12:00 AM

Family Dining Market Share Opportunities for IHOP, Denny’s, and Cracker Barrel

Is it possible the Street is underestimating sales and market-share opportunities in 2021 for some — if not all — of the three large publicly-traded family dining concepts? The “big three” family dining concepts in the U.S. — IHOP (owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Buy, $44.45]), Denny’s (DENN; Buy, $11.81), and Cracker Barrel (CBRL; Not Rated) — together combined for about 25.2% market share of the family dining sector’s $33.4 billion in U.S. sales during […]

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12:00 AM

Comparing Casual Dining & Family Dining Concepts Same-Store Sales Trends

A number of full-service restaurant companies have been generous as of late in terms of providing weekly same-store sales data. In this report, we compile and compare the recent same-store sales trends of various casual dining and family dining concepts. We also look at some segment trends, and see what this may imply for recent same-store trends of these concepts that have not yet provided samestore sales results for the last few weeks. The following […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) Better-Than-Expected Positioning to Weather COVID-19 Issues

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $48.13) reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.45, well above our $0.90 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.12. Shares are up intraday by over 20%+ due to the earnings beat and better other details than the Street generally expected. Applebee’s same-store sales declined by -10.6% in Q1, better than our -14.0% forecast and consensus of -11.6%. Applebee’s same-store sales by week bottomed out the week ended […]

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12:00 AM

BlackBox Implications for Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales

This is the final report in our series of reports showing the correlation between the widely-watched BlackBox Index — which aggregates same-store sales from 175+ restaurant concepts representing $75 billion in domestic systemwide sales — with various publicly-traded restaurant concepts’ same-store sales. In this report, we examine: (1) the correlation between the BlackBox Index and the top 20 restaurant concepts, ranked by how highly their same-store sales correlated with that index, (2) the correlation between […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) The Dollar Drink Glass is Half Full

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy, $98.51) reported adjusted Q4 2019 EPS of $1.78, ahead of our $1.72 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.71. Fourth-quarter same-store sales rose at IHOP by +1.1%, slightly exceeding our +0.8% projection and consensus of +0.7%. Applebee’s Q4 2019 same-store sales declined by -2.5%, as compared to our estimate of a -1.7% decline and consensus at -1.5%. The company raises its dividend by about +10%, to […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) New IHOP Agreement Looks Nicely Accretive to Long-Term EPS

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $1.55. This matched our $1.55 projection, and came in a little ahead of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.53. Applebee’s same-store sales declined by -1.6% in Q3 — close to our -1.5% forecast and sell-side consensus of -1.8%, but likely better than some investors had feared in what was a difficult quarter for casual dining in general during Q3. Nevertheless, the company […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Examining the Risk Reward on DIN Shares

With this report, we upgrade the shares of Dine Brands (DIN) to Buy (from Neutral), as we believe the risk/reward has shifted in favor of longs with the shares having fallen from $94.35 as of June 27th to $68.65 (-27%) as of yesterday’s (October 9th’s) closing price. While we still believe Applebee’s will report a negative same-store sales number for Q3 when Dine Brands releases its third-quarter results before the market open on Wednesday, October […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Introducing Some EPS Estimates

With this report, we introduce our quarterly adjusted EPS estimates for 2020E for Dine Brands (DIN; Buy). They are as follows: (1) Q1E $2.05, (2) Q2E $1.95, (3) Q3E $1.85, and (4) Q4E $2.30. These quarterlies sum to our unchanged full-year 2020E adjusted EPS projection of $8.15. Please keep in mind that 2020 is a 53-week fiscal year for Dine Brands. Also with this report, we introduce our full-year 2021E adjusted EPS forecast for Dine […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Adios to Our Prior Q3E Forecasts

Given weaker-than-expected same-store sales trends in the family-dining and casualdining sector quarter-to-date, we lower our Q3E same-store sales forecasts for IHOP and Applebee’s (both owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Neutral]). For IHOP, our Q3E samestore sales estimate is reduced by -140 basis points, to +0.8%, which becomes the new “low on the sell-side” forecast, according to Consensus Metrix data. For Applebee’s, we take down our Q3E projection by -150 basis points, to -1.5%, as compared […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) Questions Arise as $1 Mai Tais Arrive

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Neutral) — the owner of the IHOP family-dining concept and the Applebee’s casual-dining concept — reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.71. While this came in slightly ahead of our recently-lowered $1.70 forecast, it fell short of the $1.81 sell-side consensus. IHOP same-store sales rose by +2.0% in Q2 — solid, but underneath our +3.8% estimate and sell-side consensus of +2.5%. While the family-dining sector likely enjoyed its best same-store sales […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Updated EPS Estimates Lead to Ratings Change on Dine Brands

Based on what we believe is our newly-improved quarter-by-quarter understanding of the Dine Brands (DIN) model, and in the context of the stock’s +40.1% year-todate rise through the market’s close on June 27th, we reduce our rating on DIN to Neutral (from Buy), and adjust our quarterly EPS estimates for Q2E-Q4E as follows: For Q2E, one important adjustment is that we no longer look for G&A (on a dollar basis) to be down sequentially from […]

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12:00 AM

DIN 2019 Franchise Disclosure Document Review for IHOP

Not too long ago, IHOP (owned and franchised by Dine Brands [DIN; Buy]) filed its 500+ page Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, the footnote to the National Advertising Fee — currently 3.5% of total Gross Sales — indicates that “Commencing on January […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index (Again)

With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2E for the second time this quarter. This time, we increase the figure by +60 basis points, to +3.0%. Our updated figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment over the course of May 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is less optimistic than us as regards Q2E. When we weight the segment components identically as […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Enjoying an IHOP House-Made Milkshake as We Update Our Forecasts

With this report, we update our Q2E same-store sales forecasts for both brands owned by Dine Brands (DIN; Buy). Based on what appears to be softness in casual-dining sector same-store sales trends so far during the second quarter, we lower our Q2E same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s by 100 basis points, to +1.5%. This places us 60 basis points below sell-side consensus (as measured by Consensus Metrix). It’s possible that rainy weather in the midwest […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we lower our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2E by 40 basis points, to +1.9%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the first half of May 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is a little more optimistic than us as regards Q2E. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Casual Dining […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2E to +2.4% (up from +2.1% previously). Our updated figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the first half of May 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is a touch less optimistic than us as regards Q2E. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Family […]

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12:00 AM

DIN (Post-Call) Q1 Same-Store Sales Softness Leads Shares Lower Today

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.90, ahead of our $1.80 forecast and above sell-side consensus of $1.82. That said, both Applebee’s and IHOP fell short of expectations on same-store sales. Applebee’s same-store sales rose by +1.8% (below our +3.0% forecast and consensus at +3.3%), while IHOP’s same-store sales were up by +1.2% (below our +2.5% projection and consensus of +2.5%). On today’s conference call, management cited adverse weather during […]

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12:00 AM

DIN Holy Cannoli (Pancakes) What We See Ahead of the Q1 Earnings Release

Ahead of Dine Brands’ (DIN; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we lower our Q1E same-store sales forecast for IHOP by 50 basis points, to +2.5%. While a number at or near +2.5% would clearly still be good enough to outpace the family-dining sector average (including both publicly-traded and privately-held concepts), we are concerned about sector trends, and the possibility that this hints at a […]

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12:00 AM

Updating our Q1E19 Kalinowski Family Dining Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1E to +2.2% (down from +2.8% previously). Our updated figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the second half of February 2019 and all of March 2019. The second half of February 2019 was… bad. Adverse weather clearly played a role in this. However, what has been perhaps equally concerning to us is […]

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12:00 AM

Introducing our Q1E19 Kalinowski Casual Dining Index

With this report, we introduce our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E at +1.9%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during January 2019 and most of February 2019. At present, sell-side consensus is a little more optimistic than us as regards Q1E. When we weight the segment components identically as they’re weighted in the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index, and apply the current sell-side […]

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12:00 AM

Tidbits re Burger King (owned by QSR), Applebee’s (owned by DIN), and SBUX

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), Applebee’s (owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Buy]), and Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral): * BURGER KING. Chew Boom reports that “Burger King looks to deliver a coffee-house experience with the launch of the new BK Café, featuring freshly brewed premium coffee, specialty iced coffees and frappes. The BK Café drinks menu includes:” (bold in original) Read the Full Report

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12:00 AM

DIN Applebee’s Rainbow of Market-Share Opportunities

With the Applebee’s concept owned and (nearly 100%) franchised by Dine Brands enjoying its best same-store sales year in 2018 (up by +5.0%) in about 25 years, there are multiple reasons why the recent target range for full-year 2019 of +2% to +4% unveiled by parent company Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) surprised to the upside. These reasons include efforts by the concept to get back to its roots (winning back guests by making Applebee’s more […]

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12:00 AM
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