Coverage

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its traditional (non-satellite, non-mall) restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is likely simply a matter of time before it gets there.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to +9.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -15.7% number from Q1 2020, the -1.2% figure from Q1 2021, and the +19.5% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2023 is at +8.5%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to +2.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -0.3% number from Q1 2020, the +17.2% figure from Q1 2021, and the -3.1% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2023 is at +16.2%. So, not only does the quick-service pizza have the lowest one-year same-store sales figure for Q1 2023, it also has the second-lowest four-year number for Q1 2023 (ahead of only the family dining segment). Our +2.7% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +10.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -1.1% number from Q1 2020, the +13.0% figure from Q1 2021, and the +2.3% number from Q1 2022. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2023 is at +25.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and most of March.