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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (3/26/2025)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +2.3%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2025 is at +55.8%. This +55.8% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurant Inflation Posts Largest Sequential Rise Since March 2023

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in February — sequentially the same as January’s +1.9%. This +1.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in February (sequentially up by +30 basis points from January’s +3.4%). This marks the 23rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. We would also note that the +30 basis-point sequential gain for restaurant pricing is the largest such sequential gain since a +40 basis-point move back in March 2023.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pizza Sector: Examining Customer Satisfaction and Speed of Service by Brand

Intouch Insight recently published its “2025 Pizza Delivery and Carryout Study.” In this publication, the results from mystery shoppers in late 2024 at 12 leading pizza purveyors were examined. These brands include Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $440.03), Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $158.09]), and Papa Johns (PZZA; Buy, $48.97) – the publicly-traded pizza concepts that rank #1, #2, and #4 in terms of domestic systemwide sales within the pizza sector. In general, this report from Intouch Insight is the most comprehensive report of its type that we have come across in our 25+ years of researching the restaurant industry. Today, we look at results from the Intouch Insight report in the critical areas of Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand.

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Wendy's (WEN)
Mark Kalinowski

WEN: Targets 2028 Adjusted EBITDA Noticeably Above Consensus

Wendy’s hosted an Analyst Meeting today. As part of this, Wendy’s unveils that it targets adjusted EBITDA for 2028 of $650-$700 million, noticeably above current sell-side consensus (Consensus Metrix) of $620.8 million. It’s good to see Wendy’s confident that it can get to this targeted level, to the point it has put this target range in print. On the other hand, we may need 2026, 2027, and 2028 to each be “normal” years in the restaurant industry — in terms of sales trends, commodity inflation, wage inflation, and more – plus some well-executed strategies, not to mention some good ol’ fashioned luck – to get to that targeted 2028 adjusted EBITDA range.

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