Coverage

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to -3.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2025 is at +40.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in December — sequentially up by +50 basis points since November’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number for December compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in December (sequentially up by +40 basis points from November’s +3.7%). This marks the 33rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to -0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 2025 is at +14.8%. Our -0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +3.5%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 2025 is at +31.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.