Coverage

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +2.3%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2025 is at +55.8%. This +55.8% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Last week, we published a report based on data provided by Intouch Insight regarding mystery shops at 12 different pizza purveyors. In that report, we looked at Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand:

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.6% in February 2025. This is -90 basis points below the all-time high, set in November 2024. The February 2025 data also shows a -40 basis-point sequential decline in market share from January 2025.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in February — sequentially the same as January’s +1.9%. This +1.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in February (sequentially up by +30 basis points from January’s +3.4%). This marks the 23rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. We would also note that the +30 basis-point sequential gain for restaurant pricing is the largest such sequential gain since a +40 basis-point move back in March 2023.

Intouch Insight recently published its “2025 Pizza Delivery and Carryout Study.” In this publication, the results from mystery shoppers in late 2024 at 12 leading pizza purveyors were examined. These brands include Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $440.03), Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $158.09]), and Papa Johns (PZZA; Buy, $48.97) – the publicly-traded pizza concepts that rank #1, #2, and #4 in terms of domestic systemwide sales within the pizza sector. In general, this report from Intouch Insight is the most comprehensive report of its type that we have come across in our 25+ years of researching the restaurant industry. Today, we look at results from the Intouch Insight report in the critical areas of Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand.