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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3E to +12.2%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +5.2% number from Q3 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3E is at +18.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September. One reason for the very good one-year and two-year performance from the Fast-Casual

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q3E to +73.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -33.2% number from Q3 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2E is at +16.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September. While fine dining same-store sales typically lagged those of most other

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3E to +36.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -18.7% number from Q3 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3E is at +11.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

U.S. Market Share Trends Continue to Favor Restaurants Over Grocery Stores

We continue to look for the U.S. restaurant industry to win back additional market share over the next 12-18 months. Indeed, it’s looking much more likely that it’s just a matter of time that the market share for restaurants (versus grocery stores) will exceed the pre-pandemic market share it had of Americans’ food & beverage dollars. In addition, keep in mind that large restaurant concepts — and larger concepts tend to be the publicly-traded ones

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3E to +42.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -28.4% number from Q3 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3E is at +1.7%. (These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early September.) At this point, we anticipate that the +1.7% figure will be

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Quick-Service/Fast-Casual: 2-Year Average Check Gains Still Solid in August

August 2021 was the fifth full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service (and particularly so for the quick-service burger segment). To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that

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