Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 57.7% in August 2026. This 57.7% figure is a new all-time monthly record in favor of the restaurant industry.
With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to -0.7%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2026 is at +47.1%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.2% in August — sequentially -50 basis points lower than July’s +2.7%. This +2.2% number for August compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in August (sequentially identical to July’s +3.4%). This marks the 41st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.
Fortunately for Starbucks, beverages in general have become a growth category within the limited-service restaurant format. This helps Starbucks because that concept is the largest beverage-centric concept in the U.S. restaurant industry. Unfortunately for Starbucks, it faces growing competition both from up-and-coming beverage-centric concepts (such as Dutch Bros and 7 Brew), as well as food-centric concepts which have expanded their beverage offerings (such as McDonald’s and Taco Bell).
Earlier today (Wednesday, September 9th), Jersey Mike’s reported second-quarter net income of $37 million. This is a GAAP number, and includes one-time items. If one were to exclude:
Back on August 4th, McDonald’s management commented that “In late April, we augmented our McValue program with a new under $3 Every Day Affordable Price or EDAP menu…. We also added a $4 Breakfast Meal Deal. Inconsistent restaurant level execution of the EDAP menu and consumer awareness levels below target resulted in lower incrementality than we expected. At the same time, the business pulled back on digital offers and removed our Buy One, Add One for $1 feature to offset the investment behind McValue. In combination, all of these factors negatively impacted visits from some of our most loyal customers. We estimate that these value execution factors accounted for about 2/3 of the customer traffic underperformance relative to our expectations for the quarter. The remainder of our underperformance can largely be attributed to our FIFA campaign in June. While the campaign provided a lift to the business and generated excellent system excitement, the campaign underperformed versus our expectations.”