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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
MarK Kalinowski

MCD: Raising our Q1E U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast to the Sell-Side High

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s by +190 basis points, to +12.2%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +9.7%. During its January 28th conference call, McDonald’s stated that “Turning to January trends, in the U.S., sales comps continue to be strong and are expected to be up high-single digits, with continued growth across all dayparts

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April 5, 2021 No Comments
Wendy's (WEN)
MarK Kalinowski

WEN: Raising our Q1E U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast to the Sell-Side High

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s by +150 basis points, to +11.5%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +10.0%. On its March 3rd conference call, Wendy’s stated that “Through the week ended February 21, our U.S. same-store sales were up by approximately 6% on a one-year basis, and almost 10% on a two-year basis, despite

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April 5, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1E to +10.9%. This +10.9% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +10% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), +2% for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +30% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy

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April 5, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this

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April 1, 2021 No Comments
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
MarK Kalinowski

PZZA: How Does Papa John’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

Papa John’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in early May. How do PZZA shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from Papa John’s, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the

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March 30, 2021 No Comments
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
MarK Kalinowski

PZZA: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

With this report, we increase our Q1E North American same-store sales forecast for Papa John’s by +130 basis points, to +13.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +12.9%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament —

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March 29, 2021 No Comments