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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2E to +106.4%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -54.1% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2E is at -5.3%. (These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.) The negative two-year number for our Kalinowski Family Dining Index is

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June 28, 2021 No Comments
Dine Brands Global (DIN)
Mark Kalinowski

DIN: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Projections (re: IHOP)

Although family dining segment same-store sales seem to be lagging those of most other U.S. restaurant sectors on a two-year basis, they have still come in somewhat better than we have been anticipating. As such, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for IHOP to +128.0% (from +100.0%). This implies a two-year projection of about -7%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at

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June 28, 2021 No Comments
Denny's Corporation (DENN)
Mark Kalinowski

DENN: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

Although family dining segment same-store sales seem to be lagging those of most other U.S. restaurant sectors on a two-year basis, they have still come in somewhat better than we have been anticipating. As such, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for Denny’s to +121.0% (from +105.0%). This implies a two-year projection of about -5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at

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June 28, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2E to +0.9%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +14.1% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2E is at +15.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June. We believe that the carryout/delivery parts of the quick-service pizza sector

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June 22, 2021 No Comments
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Mark Kalinowski

DPZ: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Projections

With this report, we boost our Q2E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Domino’s U.S., up by +120 basis points, to -1.0% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at -1.8% as of this writing), and (2) for Domino’s International, up by +200 basis points, to +12.0% (sell-side consensus is at +10.0% as of this writing). This better-than-expected sales momentum — coupled with an ASR (accelerated share repurchase) — causes us to raise our

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June 22, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2E to +97.7%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -42.3% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2E is at +14.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June. Keep in mind, individual performance can vary wildly on a concept-by-concept

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June 21, 2021 No Comments