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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index for Q4 Ends 2024 with a Whimper

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2024 to +0.7%. While this is sequentially a little better than Q3 2024’s +0.2% result, it’s still not all that encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, all four quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number. At least in 2025, the industry will be lapping weak numbers throughout the year.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index (1/21/2025)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +2.7%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +28.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants: Growth in U.S. Industry Spending Remained Sluggish in December

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in December 2024. This is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was actually not a gain at all, as the December 2023 market share was 56.3% — restaurants lost about -20 basis points of market share in December 2024 year-over-year. This is the first month in which restaurant lost market share since the pandemic-affected February 2021.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Continues to Narrow

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.8% in December — sequentially up by +20 basis points from November’s +1.6%. This +1.8% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in December (sequentially equal to November’s +3.6%). This marks the 21st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in December 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index (1/8/2025)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +17.5%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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