With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to +3.1%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +40.3% number from Q3 2021, and the -28.2% figure from Q3 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 is at +3.8%. This would mark the first time this year in which any quarter is positive on a three-year basis for family dining. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.8% in August 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +80 basis points from the August 2021 number of 54.0%. In addition, the 54.8% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly high of 55.0% (from April 2022).
Earlier today, Starbucks hosted an Analyst Meeting in Seattle. While meaningful investments are called for in multiple areas, we believe that this will lead to a much stronger Starbucks for the long run, including happier partners (employees) and improved customer experiences.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially up by +40 basis points from July’s +7.6%). This +8.0% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +13.5% year-over-year in August (sequentially up by +40 basis points from July’s +13.1%). The food-at-home figure of +13.5% is easily a 40+ year high.
Yum Brands’ quick-service Mexican concept Taco Bell acknowledges that the official return date for its Mexican Pizza will be Thursday, September 15th (with loyalty program members getting early access on September 13th). Mexican Pizza was a permanent menu item from its inception in 1985 (when it was known as “Pizzazz Pizza”) until its discontinuation in November 2020. This discontinuation caused a social-media uproar, when eventually led to Mexican Pizza being reintroduced in mid-May 2022.