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Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
MarK Kalinowski

SBUX: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

Ahead of Starbucks’ fiscal Q2 earnings release planned for after the market close on Tuesday, April 27th, we raise our fiscal Q2E U.S. same-store sales forecast by +1 percentage point, to +9%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this places us as the “high forecast on the sell-side” in this regard. As of this writing, sell-side consensus for fiscal Q2E U.S. same-store sales is at +6.7%, although remember that Starbucks does not report its same-store sales

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April 12, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1E to +7.3%. This +7.3% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +7% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), flattish for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +23% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy

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April 8, 2021 No Comments
YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
MarK Kalinowski

YUM: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

With this report, we boost our Q1E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +1 percentage point to +7% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +5.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its samestore sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +13% (consensus is at +11.6%). This better-than-expected sales momentum causes us to raise our full-year

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April 8, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Family Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1E to -7.8%. This 7.8% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about -27% for January 2021, -26% for February 2021, and +54% for March (helped by super-easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020… we believe family dining sector same-store sales declined by about -45% during March 2020 as a whole, getting worse as that month progressed). Keep in mind that March

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April 7, 2021 No Comments
Dine Brands Global (DIN)
MarK Kalinowski

DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts for IHOP

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +600 basis points, to -5.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -9.9%. Our increased forecast represents (inter-related) factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year family dining sector sales trends, (2) benefits from stimulus-related consumer spending in March, and (3) “spring fever” perhaps finding itself a little more in bloom than usual amongst consumers

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April 7, 2021 No Comments
McDonald's Corp (MCD)
MarK Kalinowski

MCD: How Does McDonald’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

McDonald’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in late April. How do MCD shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from McDonald’s, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1) the week ahead of the scheduled earnings release, and (2) the day of the earnings

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April 6, 2021 No Comments