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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating Our Q2E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2E to +45.0%. On a two-year basis, this is approximately +12%. The U.S. chain restaurant business is coming back strong sales-wise, although we’d caution that there is a broad range of performances on both a one-year and a two-year basis when looking at individual concepts. For Q2 2021, the one-year numbers by segment are all in positive territory as follows:> Kalinowski Fine Dining

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Quick-Service/Fast-Casual: 2-Year Average Check Gain Remain Elevated in June

June 2021 was the third full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Market-Share Dynamics for 2021-22 Favor Restaurants Over Grocery Stores

We look for the U.S. restaurant industry to win back additional market share over the next 12-18 months, and at some point it could even exceed the pre-pandemic market share it had of Americans’ food & beverage dollars. In 2019 — the last full-year before the pandemic — U.S. Food Services and Drinking Places (think: primarily restaurants) generated $773.8 billion in sales, according to U.S. Census data. Also in 2019, U.S. Grocery Stores generated $693.4

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Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
Mark Kalinowski

SBUX: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Forecasts

Given better-than-expected retail foodservice sales in general during calendar Q2 — Starbucks’ fiscal Q3 — we raise our fiscal Q3E Americas same-store sales forecast to +78% (from +72%). Given the fiscal Q3 2020 figure of -41%, our updated +78% projection implies a two-year number of about +5%. We would also note that embedded within our updated Americas forecast for fiscal Q3E is a U.S. same-store sales projection of +83% (up from +77%). We plan to

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E to +20.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -7.4% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E is at +11.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June. One reason for the robust one-year and two-year performance from the

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Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Mark Kalinowski

DPZ: Could the Long-Term Unit Outlook be More than the Street Expects?

Are signs starting to emerge that Domino’s long-term worldwide unit growth potential could be meaningfully higher than the Street currently believes? On June 24th, Australia-based master franchisee Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP.AU; Not Rated) stated that “Less than 12 months after opening the market’s 700th store, Domino’s Pizza Japan has set another record, opening 126 stores in one year, 10 in one day, and the 800th for the market. The milestone is a record for Domino’s

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