Concurrent with this report, we are publishing our report entitled “Updating our Q3 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index.” In that report, we note that we are keeping unchanged our Q3E same-store sales forecast for Papa Johns North American of -5.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -5.6%.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +19.2%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to -0.4%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2024 is at +22.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.
U.S. restaurant industry same-store sales remain on track in 2024 to have their weakest year since 2016 (excluding pandemic-hit 2020). Be on the lookout for our updated Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index, which aggregates the same-store sales for the industry based on each components’ full-year 2023 domestic systemwide sales. Unfortunately for the industry, it looks as if the Q3 2023 index number will be similar to the weak results of Q1 2023 and Q2 2023.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.