Coverage

All Reports:

YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM (Post-Call): Misses on Q4 EPS as Same-Store Sales Trends Weaken

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported that its Q4 adjusted EPS amounted to $1.26. This was short of our $1.50 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.42. We attribute most of the earnings miss to weaker-than-expected same-store sales for Yum’s largest three concepts.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Mark Kalinowski

CMG (Post-Call): Carne Get Better Than This?

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Chipotle Mexican Grill reported Q4 2023 adjusted EPS of $10.36, ahead of our $9.49 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $9.71. We attribute the earnings beat to leverage gained from better-than-expected same-store sales growth. Management indicates that at least part of the same-store sales robustness was achieved due to better throughput during key dayparts.

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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: Part 2 of McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Looks at CosMc’s

Today we publish part two of two of the January 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some of their initial impressions of CosMc’s, the new beverage-focused concept for which McDonald’s opened unit #1 late last year. While this first CosMc’s was opened in Illinois, the next several are planned for Texas. (The second CosMc’s in the U.S. is apparently being planned for San Antonio.) For more info:

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Dine Brands Global (DIN)
Mark Kalinowski

DIN: Adjusting Our Estimates (1/29/2024)

We believe that January has proven a tough month as regards same-store sales for a wide swath of the restaurant industry, including the casual dining and family dining segments. Based on our conversations with industry contacts, bad weather – lapping a mild winter from one year ago – clearly seems to be the #1 reason behind the challenged January sales trends. As of today, it’s possible that February could prove to be similarly challenged.

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