Coverage

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2025 to +1.6%. All in all, this ties for the second-best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. But, it’s still over a percentage point below the long-term average, and does not imply any sequential improvement from Q3 2025. It has been a long two years for the domestic restaurant industry!

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +2.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 2025 is at +23.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +2.0%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 2025 is at +28.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in November 2025, tying the all-time record set in five different months so far this year. It’s also sequentially up by +10 basis points from October 2025’s 56.4% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to -3.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2025 is at +40.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.