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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Gap Between Restaurant Pricing and Grocery Pricing Widens in April 2023

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +7.1% in April (sequentially down by -130 basis points from March’s +8.4%). This +7.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.6% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -20 basis points from March’s +8.8%). This marks the second month in which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing since late 2021.

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Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
Mark Kalinowski

PZZA (Post-Call): A Lot of Moving Pieces Leads to Updated Forecasts

Earlier today, Papa Johns reported that its first-quarter adjusted EPS came to $0.68, above our $0.63 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.67. We attribute the Q1 EPS beat relative to our forecasts due to better-than-projected Q1 margins at company-owned units (helped by company-owned same-store sales rising by +3.4%, better than our +0.5% estimate and consensus of +0.4%), and also in the domestic commissary business.

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Dine Brands Global (DIN)
Mark Kalinowski

DIN (Post-Call): What’s the Best Pancake Topping? More Pancakes

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported adjusted first-quarter EPS of $1.97. This was quite a bit better than our $1.67 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.69. First-quarter adjusted EBITDA amounted to $66.4 million, which was higher than consensus of $60.8 million.

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YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM (Post-Call): Robust Q1 Sales, But No Q1 Earnings Beat

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.06. However, this includes a -7 cent hit from “unrealized investment losses.” Excluding these investment losses, EPS would have been $1.13, closer to our $1.15 forecast, and matching sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.13.

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