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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating Our Q4 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +6.1%. This is more than double the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q4 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +5.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -34.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 2022 is at +15.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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Wendy's (WEN)
Mark Kalinowski

WEN: Doubles its Dividend, Sales Strong, But Largest Shareholder Won’t Bid for It

Earlier today, Wendy’s pre-announced its Q4 results, and updated its capital allocation plans. Overall, we view most of the key points as positive for Wendy’s, although we do note that its largest shareholder is no longer considering acquiring Wendy’s outright. While we believe this outcome was widely anticipated on the Street, it may still hamper the stock in trading today. Nevertheless, we’d remain buyers of WEN.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Grocery Pricing +11.8% in December 2022, +350 Basis Points More than Restaurants

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.3% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +8.5%). This +8.3% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.8% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +12.0%). The food-at-home figure of +11.8% is now -170 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for three months in a row.

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