Starbucks plans to report its fiscal Q1 2023 (calendar Q4 2022) earnings after the market close on Thursday, February 2nd (two weeks from today).
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 to +6.1%. This is more than double the 30-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q4 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 54.8% in December 2022. This is a year-over-year improvement of +110 basis points from the December 2021 number of 53.7%.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 to +5.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +67.4% number from Q4 2021, and the -34.9% figure from Q4 2020. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q4 2022 is at +15.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.
Earlier today, Wendy’s pre-announced its Q4 results, and updated its capital allocation plans. Overall, we view most of the key points as positive for Wendy’s, although we do note that its largest shareholder is no longer considering acquiring Wendy’s outright. While we believe this outcome was widely anticipated on the Street, it may still hamper the stock in trading today. Nevertheless, we’d remain buyers of WEN.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-away-from-home (restaurants) rose by +8.3% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +8.5%). This +8.3% number compares with prices for food-at-home (groceries and supermarkets) that increased by +11.8% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -20 basis points from November’s +12.0%). The food-at-home figure of +11.8% is now -170 basis points below the 40+ year high number, having shown sequential deceleration for three months in a row.