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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Mark Kalinowski

CMG (Post-Call): Same-Store Sales Trends Improve; Tax Rate Helps Q1 EPS

After today’s market close, Chipotle reported adjusted Q1E EPS of $5.70. This was slightly below our $5.75 estimate, but slightly above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $5.66. However, the adjusted Q1 tax rate came to 16.7%. This was meaningfully more favorable than our 25.0% forecast and consensus of 25.0%. We calculate that this difference between the actual adjusted tax rate and our 25.0% forecast helped Q1 EPS by about +59 cents.

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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Part 2 Discusses Market Share

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of the April 2022 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report focuses on franchisees’ thoughts as regards market-share trends and opportunities over the next 3-5 years. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants: Market Share vs. Grocery Stores Improves Year-to-Year in Q1

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores making up the other component) was 51.6% in March 2022. This was -10 basis points sequentially lower than February 2022’s 51.7% figure. But it was also modestly higher than restaurants’ full-year 2021 market share of 50.4%.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating Our Q1 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 to +7.1%. On a three-year (pre-pandemic) basis, this is approximately +14.6%. The first quarter of 2022 had many dips and undulations in terms of same-store sales trends. January 2022 was hampered by labor availability issues that were widespread across the industry. February 2022 fared meaningfully better, as Covid (Omicron) cases rapidly declined in the U.S., and (in a related matter) as labor-availability challenges lessened. However, March 2022 saw trends weaken again, in part due to lapping the massive $500 billion stimulus from one year ago.

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