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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (6/17/2024)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.8%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2024 is at +50.5%. This +50.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Mark Kalinowski

CMG: Adjusting Our Estimates (6/17/2024)

The fast-casual segment of the domestic restaurant industry continues to put up both: (1) the highest same-store sales growth numbers of any major segment of the industry, and (2) the highest net-unit growth rates of any major sector. However, these gains are not nearly equal across all fast-casual concepts – clearly, some are doing much better than others on both of these fronts.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains at 300 Basis Points

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in May — sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +1.1%. This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +4.1%). This marks the 15th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

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