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Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Mark Kalinowski

CAKE: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

With this note, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for brand Cheesecake Factory to +149.0% (from +142.5%). Our updated +149.0% projection implies a two-year sales figure of about +7.3% for full-Q2E. As of this writing, sell-side consensus is at +145.3% for the one-year number. On June 2nd, The Cheesecake Factory provided a business update in which it commented that for “Fiscal 2021 second quarter-to-date through May 31st comparable sales for The Cheesecake Factory restaurants

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June 21, 2021 No Comments
Dine Brands Global (DIN)
Mark Kalinowski

DIN: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Projections (re: Applebee’s)

Based on continued strength in the casual dining segment over April, May, and early June, coupled with what we believe has been a fair amount of national advertising done by Applebee’s as of late, we raise our full-Q2E same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s to +117.4% (from +90.0%). This implies a two-year projection of +10.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus — according to Consensus Metrix — for the Q2E one-year number is at +103.5%. Furthermore,

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June 21, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2E to +11.3%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +1.5% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2E is at +13.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June. As a reminder, we define “quick-service other” as all quick-service, excluding

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June 17, 2021 No Comments
YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

With this report, we boost our Q2E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +2 percentage points to +17% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +15.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +3% (consensus is at +2.5%). This better-than-expected sales momentum causes us to raise our full-year

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June 16, 2021 No Comments
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)
Mark Kalinowski

PZZA: The Bull and Bear Cases on Papa John’s

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $101.83). While we maintain our Buy rating on PZZA — it continues to be our top small/mid-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in PZZA to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is. Key parts of the bullish point of view are: (1) same-store

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June 14, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2E Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2E to +204.0%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -64.3% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q2E is at +8.5%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June. Fine dining same-store sales have typically lagged those of casual dining

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June 11, 2021 No Comments