Coverage

All Reports:

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Mark Kalinowski

DPZ: Updating Our Forecasts (1/24/2024)

Back on November 1st, the largest Domino’s master franchisee (Australia-based Domino’s Pizza Enterprises) reported that for the first 16 weeks of its fiscal 2024, group same-store sales rose by +2.7%. This +2.7% showing lapped a -1.0% figure from the year-ago period.  For more info, click on the following, and scroll down to presentation slide #12:

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Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Mark Kalinowski

CAKE: Would Reducing the Menu by About 40 Items Help Margins & Productivity?

The Cheesecake Factory has been one of the most successful full-service restaurant concepts of all time. It’s also arguably the most differentiated concept of size in the full-service space. But as with every restaurant company out there, there are always opportunities to improve. What can The Cheesecake Factory improve about itself?

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Lowest in Q4 2023 for Any Quarter in 2023

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2023 to +3.7%. This is -130 basis points sequentially below the Q3 2023 figure of +5.0%. However, it’s nearly equal to the 35-quarter (Q1 2015-Q3 2023) median of +3.6%. With a lot of macro factors that greatly impacted 2020-23 same-store sales fading into the background (albeit not all of them), we may be back – finally! — to what might be considered “normal” same-store sales trends. We’ll see if 2024 plays out that way (or not).

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q4 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +0.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the +10.7% number from Q4 2020, the +3.3% figure from Q4 2021, and the +1.9% number from Q4 2022. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a four-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 2023 is at +17.3%. So, not only does the quick-service pizza have the second-lowest one-year same-store sales figure for Q4 2023 (ahead of only fine fining), it also has the second-lowest four-year number for Q4 2023 (ahead of only the family dining segment). Our +0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurant and Grocery Pricing Sequentially Decelerate in December

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in December (sequentially down by -40 basis points from November’s +1.7%). This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +5.2% year-over-year in December (sequentially down by -10 basis points from November’s +5.3%). This marks the 10th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing, following no such months during all of 2022.

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