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YUM! Brands Inc. (YUM)
Mark Kalinowski

YUM: Adjusting Our Estimates (6/25/2024)

The quick-service part of the domestic restaurant industry is more challenged on the sales front so far during 2024 than it was over the 2021-23 time period. Part of this relates to some consumers getting fed up with higher prices. Although the worst inflation in 40+ years affected virtually every industry, disproportionate media attention has been paid as of late to fast-food prices. Couple this with a more conservative approach to restaurant spending by lower-income households, and it’s not a surprise that some large quick-service burger concepts have rolled out – or will roll out soon – some meal deals that emphasize value.

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June 25, 2024 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants’ Rate of Market Share Gains Decelerates

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in May 2024. This 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. And while it’s also up by +60 basis points on a year-over-year basis, this is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain notched in July 2022.

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June 18, 2024 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index (6/17/2024)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.8%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2024 is at +50.5%. This +50.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

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June 17, 2024 No Comments
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Mark Kalinowski

CMG: Adjusting Our Estimates (6/17/2024)

The fast-casual segment of the domestic restaurant industry continues to put up both: (1) the highest same-store sales growth numbers of any major segment of the industry, and (2) the highest net-unit growth rates of any major sector. However, these gains are not nearly equal across all fast-casual concepts – clearly, some are doing much better than others on both of these fronts.

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June 17, 2024 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Pricing Gap in Favor of Grocery Stores over Restaurants Remains at 300 Basis Points

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in May — sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +1.1%. This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +4.1%). This marks the 15th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

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June 12, 2024 No Comments