McDonald’s plans to release its fourth-quarter earnings after the market close (not the usual before the market open) on Wednesday, February 11th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2025 to +1.6%. All in all, this ties for the second-best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. But, it’s still over a percentage point below the long-term average, and does not imply any sequential improvement from Q3 2025. It has been a long two years for the domestic restaurant industry!
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +2.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 2025 is at +23.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +2.0%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 2025 is at +28.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.
With this report, we drop coverage of Denny’s (former ticker symbol DENN) as its acquisition by a trio of privately-held entities closed this past Friday (January 16th). Our former rating, EPS estimates, same-store sales forecasts, and other projections/opinions should no longer be relied upon. (We drop all of our prior EPS estimates and target price with this report.) For more info:
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in November 2025, tying the all-time record set in five different months so far this year. It’s also sequentially up by +10 basis points from October 2025’s 56.4% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.