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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Restaurants: BlackBox Index Decelerates Somewhat in August

Earlier today (Thursday, September 9th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for August 2021 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +6.1%, with two-year traffic off by -5.4%. The +6.1% figure — while clearly still in positive territory — nevertheless was below both June 2021’s +6.6% number and August 2021’s +8.1% showing. Since the August 2020 BlackBox Index was down by -12.3%, the two-year figure

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Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Mark Kalinowski

CAKE: Two Growing Opportunities for The Cheesecake Factory

There appear to be at least two growing opportunities for The Cheesecake Factory. First, ghost kitchens seem to be well-aligned with the goals of the company’s bakery business. Second, Europe represents an opportunity. We are likely getting closer than ever to the company’s opening (most probably via a licensed partner) of the first Cheesecake Factory restaurant in Europe. And even if this latter opportunity doesn’t happen any time soon, perhaps there have been some hints

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Wendy's (WEN)
Mark Kalinowski

WEN: Breakfast and “… Because That’s Where the Market Share is.”

Bank robber Willie Sutton reportedly replied — when asked why he robbed banks — “Because that’s where the money is.” Similarly, why is Wendy’s taking aim at privately-held Dunkin’ in its efforts to build its breakfast business? Because that’s where the market share is. In November 2019, we published a report entitled “WEN: What Concepts Might Wendy’s Take Breakfast Share from in 2020?” As part of that report, we noted how of the top 50

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

Which Restaurant Stocks are Most Below their 52-Week Highs? (8/31/2021)

Sometimes, relative bargains can be unearthed when looking at a group of stocks, and comparing their current prices with these stocks’ 52-week highs. For example, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $127.53), Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $516.89), and Wendy’s (WEN; Buy, $23.02) were all -21% or more below their 52-week highs as of March 5, 2021, and each of these has appreciated nicely in the (approximate) six months since that time. In those six months, PZZA rose by

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McDonald's Corp (MCD)
Mark Kalinowski

MCD: McDonald’s Top 25 Markets for 2021E Operating Profits

With this note, we take a look at the geographical breakdown of our full-year 2021E McDonald’s operating income forecast of $9.863 billion. As it turns out, we anticipate that about 44% of this year’s operating income will come from the U.S., with no other single market accounting for as much as 7% of anticipated 2021E operating income. This helps to explain why U.S. same-store sales trends are so closely watched by investors. In any case,

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Restaurant Industry
Mark Kalinowski

U.S. Restaurants Could Set Market-Share All-Time High in 2022

We continue to look for the U.S. restaurant industry to win back additional market share over the next 12-18 months. Indeed, it’s looking much more likely that it’s just a matter of time that the market share for restaurants (versus grocery stores) will exceed the pre-pandemic market share it had of Americans’ food & beverage dollars. In 2019 — the last full-year before the pandemic — U.S. Food Services and Drinking Places (think: primarily restaurants)

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