Coverage

In this report, we look at the correlations for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, and Jack in the Box in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s sales go down, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Wendy’s?”

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in July 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.8% figure is only -50 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +10 basis points year-over-year. This is the smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in July — sequentially the same as June’s +1.1%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in July (sequentially equivalent to June’s +4.1%). This marks the 17th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

In a stunning move, Starbucks names Brian Niccol as its new CEO and Chairman. Mr. Niccol, of course, had been the CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill since March 5, 2018. Our bottom line: good for Starbucks, acting quickly given its now apparent “buyer’s remorse” with its prior CEO. And while this will be viewed as bad for Chipotle in the short term, Mr. Niccol had been CEO there 6+ years, so perhaps the opportunity to bring some new thinking to that highly-respected company isn’t the worst thing in the world for the long run.