Today we publish part two of two of the April 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether McDonald’s U.S. should launch a Chicken Big Mac nationwide, or not. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.
Today we publish part two of two of the April 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether McDonald’s U.S. should launch a Chicken Big Mac nationwide, or not. This report also provides some general thoughts from the franchisees about any topic currently at the forefront of their minds.
McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Tuesday, April 25th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two later this week.
Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in March 2023. Sequentially, this is slightly up from the (-10 basis point downward revised) 56.0% figure from February 2023. It also marks the second-best month ever for the U.S. restaurant industry in this regard, surpassed only by January 2023’s all-time record of 56.7%. On a year-over-year basis, the March 2023 numbers represent a +170 basis point gain in favor of restaurants.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +8.4% in March (sequentially down by -180 basis points from February’s +10.2%). This +8.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +8.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially up by +40 basis points from February’s +8.4%). This marks the first month in which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing since late 2021.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2023 to +8.3%. This is more than double the 31-quarter (Q1 2015-Q4 2022) median of +2.9%, suggesting sales trends remain healthy – at least through the end of Q1 – despite multiple large macroeconomic challenges.