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Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1E to +11.3%. There may even be potential for upside, based on the following positive factors: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major

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March 29, 2021 No Comments
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
MarK Kalinowski

DPZ: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Domino’s by +260 basis points, to +10.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +9.4%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV

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March 29, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E to -1.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -19%, -20%, and +45%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to +1.7%, but due

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March 24, 2021 No Comments
Dine Brands Global (DIN)
MarK Kalinowski

DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Applebee’s by +450 basis points, to +1.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -3.5%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year casual dining sector trends, (2) Applebee’s resumption of national advertising in early March (which it did not have in January and February), coupled with (3) our belief that the Applebee’s

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March 24, 2021 No Comments
Denny's Corporation (DENN)
MarK Kalinowski

DENN: How Does Denny’s Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

Denny’s likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in late April or early-to-mid May (with after the market close on Tuesday, May 4th a distinct possibility). How do DENN shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day after an earnings release? To answer those questions, we compiled data for the 24 prior earnings releases from Denny’s, examining the stock’s absolute performance, and performance relative to the S&P 500, for two time periods: (1)

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March 23, 2021 No Comments
Restaurant Industry
MarK Kalinowski

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1E to -12.0%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -35%, -22%, and +35%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to -7.3%, but due

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March 22, 2021 No Comments