The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in September — sequentially up by +40 basis points from August’s +0.9%. This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -10 basis points from August’s +4.0%). This marks the 19th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2024 to +0.8%. This is sequentially similar to Q2 2024’s +0.9% showing, not to mention Q1 2024’s +0.9% result. This is not encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, the first three quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number.