McDonald’s Corp (MCD)

McDonald’s is apparently testing a modified approach to its lineup of chicken menu items at a tiny amount of its restaurants in Chicago (the city in which, of course, McDonald’s is currently headquartered). The tests include a mix of new/modified/ returning menu items.

Anecdotal evidence that the McDonald’s U.S. Grinch Meal promotion — which officially started on December 2nd, less than a full week ago — is selling very well. (Some examples of this evidence are provided starting on page two of this note.)

McDonald’s is currently headquartered in Chicago, having moved its HQ there during 2018 — following a 1971-2018 run in the Chicago suburb of Oak Brook. We point this out in part to mention that McDonald’s had meaningfully more historical ties to Oak Brook than to the city of Chicago, and yet it still moved its headquarters out of Oak Brook when it believed it best to do so.

Earlier today (Wednesday), McDonald’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.22. This was lower than our $3.30 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.32. By our math, the Q3 adjusted tax rate of 22.5% was modestly less favorable than our 21.5% forecast and consensus of 21.2%. By our math, the difference between the 22.5% tax rate and 21.5%E hampered McDonald’s Q3 adjusted EPS by about -5 cents.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q3 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, November 5th. Today we publish part two of the October 2025 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the National Owners Association (NOA).

McDonald’s plans to release its third-quarter earnings before the market open on Wednesday, November 5th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

On September 2nd, McDonald’s announced that “Starting Sept. 8, we’re bringing Extra Value Meals back to McDonald’s so you can save when you make your favorites a meal…. we’re going all in with two Extra Value Meal offers…. For a limited time, start your morning with a $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg meal – which comes with Hash Browns and a small coffee – or satisfy your afternoon appetite with the $8 Big Mac meal that includes medium World Famous Fries and choice of medium soft drink.” For more info:

On September 2nd, McDonald’s announced that “Starting Sept. 8, we’re bringing Extra Value Meals back to McDonald’s so you can save when you make your favorites a meal…. we’re going all in with two Extra Value Meal offers…. For a limited time, start your morning with a $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg meal – which comes with Hash Browns and a small coffee – or satisfy your afternoon appetite with the $8 Big Mac meal that includes medium World Famous Fries and choice of medium soft drink.”

Earlier today (Wednesday), McDonald’s reported this its second-quarter adjusted EPS reached $3.19. This was ahead of our $3.05 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.15.

McDonald’s plans to release its Q2 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, August 6th. Today we publish part two of the July 2025 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about opportunities for chicken menu items during breakfast.

McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Wednesday, August 6th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

This morning, we published an industry report entitled “Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this McDonald’s note.

Earlier today (Thursday), McDonald’s reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.67. This was slightly above our $2.64 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.66. The Q1 adjusted tax rate of 19.9% was modestly more favorable than our 20.5% forecast and consensus of 20.7%. By our math, the difference between the 19.9% tax rate and consensus helped McDonald’s Q1 adjusted EPS by about +2 cents.

McDonald’s plans to release its first-quarter earnings before the market open on Thursday, May 1st. Today we publish part two of the April 2025 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the CosMc’s concept that McDonald’s continues to work on.

McDonald’s plans to release its first-quarter earnings before the market open on Thursday, May 1st. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

This morning, we published an industry report entitled “Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this McDonald’s note.

Earlier today (Monday), McDonald’s reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $2.83. This was fairly close to our $2.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.84. We calculate that the adjusted Q4 tax rate was 19.9%. This was more favorable than our 20.5% projection and consensus of 20.6%. The lower-than-forecast tax rate helped Q4 EPS by about +2 cents, relative to our projection.

McDonald’s plans to release its fourth-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, February 10th. Today we publish part two of the January 2025 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the upcoming return to McDonald’s U.S. this year of Snack Wraps.

McDonald’s plans to release its fourth-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, February 10th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this McDonald’s note.

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $3.23. This matched our $3.23 forecast, and was two cents above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.21.

McDonald’s plans to release its third-quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, October 29th. Today we publish part two of two of the October 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the Big Arch burger. This larger, more satiating burger is currently in test in Canada, Germany, and Portugal. What do our U.S.-based franchisee contacts think about the possibility of the Big Arch being rolled out in the U.S. at some point.

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) issued a Food Safety Alert: the CDC “is investigating 49 illnesses in 10 states linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers. If you ate a Quarter Pounder hamburger from McDonald’s and have severe symptoms of E. coli, contact your healthcare provider.”

McDonald’s plans to release its third-quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, October 29th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

Earlier today (Monday), McDonald’s reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $2.97, short of our $3.05 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.07.

McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, July 29th. Today we publish part two of two of the July 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the value-oriented “burger wars” – including the $5 Meal Deal that McDonald’s rolled out nationwide back in late June.

McDonald’s plans to release its second-quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, July 29th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

This morning, we published an industry report entitled “Updating our Q2 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this McDonald’s note.

As ubiquitous as it is, chicken continues to gain in popularity in multiple ways, including with quick-service consumers. McDonald’s noted on its February 5th conference call that “Our chicken category now represents $25 billion in annual Systemwide sales, on par with beef.” This is, of course, a worldwide figure. Specific to McDonald’s U.S., beef apparently maintains a lead over chicken. But no doubt, McDonald’s is working to capture more chicken market share in the U.S.

Back on April 4th, we published a McDonald’s report looking at changes in menu prices for two different combos sold at 25 of its restaurants in California over the 2/8/24-4/3/24 time frame:

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.70. This compares with our $2.70 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.71. The Q1 tax rate came to 19.9%. This was more favorable than our 21.0% projection and consensus of 20.8%. By our math, the modestly more favorable-than-expected tax rate helped Q1 EPS by about +4 cents.

Today we publish part two of two of the April 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some commentary about the “Bigger Burger” initiative that McDonald’s management has talked about that it has planned for multiple countries.

McDonald’s plans to release its first-quarter earnings before the market open on Tuesday, April 30th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today.

This morning, we published an industry report entitled “Updating our Q1 Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index.” We encourage you to read that report in conjunction with this McDonald’s note.

Over the course of this week, we have previously published notes detailing menu-price increases at 25 Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants in California, 20 Starbucks locations in California, 25 Taco Bells in California, 25 Wendy’s in California, and 25 Burger Kings in California.

Earlier today, McDonald’s and Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) announced that they “are teaming up for a national expansion. Fans will begin spotting Krispy Kreme doughnuts in their local McDonald’s restaurants later this year as part of a phased market rollout across the country. Nationwide availability at participating restaurants is expected by the end of 2026. Three of Krispy Kreme’s most popular doughnuts will be delivered fresh to McDonald’s restaurants every day. They’ll be available individually, or in boxes of six, starting at breakfast and lasting throughout the day – while supplies last.” For more info:

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q4 2023 EPS of $2.95, coming in ahead of our $2.88 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.82.

Today we publish part two of two of the January 2024 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. As part of this, we asked our franchisee contacts to provide some of their initial impressions of CosMc’s, the new beverage-focused concept for which McDonald’s opened unit #1 late last year. While this first CosMc’s was opened in Illinois, the next several are planned for Texas. (The second CosMc’s in the U.S. is apparently being planned for San Antonio.) For more info:

McDonald’s plans to release its fourth-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, February 5th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two early next week.

Back on September 5th, we published a report looking at some recent currency-translation effects on McDonald’s quarterly EPS. That report included our formula for projection the currency effect on a given quarter’s EPS, and is available at:

McDonald’s hostied an Analyst Meeting in Chicago today. On the whole, we view the contents favorably (e.g., new unit growth targets above consensus, a greater emphasis on chicken, and digital investments that should continue to pay off nicely). The related press release that McDonald’s issued can be viewed at:

Following the October 7th acts of war by Hamas that included the murders of 1,400+ individuals in Israel, the official Twitter** account of McDonald’s Israel commented multiple times that it has provided free meals to members of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces). For example, McDonald’s Israel tweeted** on October 17th that “From the first day of the war, McDonald’s Israel has donated 100,000 meals to the IDF, security forces, hospitals, and the residents of the surrounding area.” (translated from Hebrew)

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $3.19, surpassing our $3.06 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $3.01.

Today we publish part two of two of the October 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines California’s AB 1228, recently signed into law:

McDonald’s plans to release its third-quarter earnings before the market open on Monday, October 30th. Ahead of that, we publish part one of our two-part, proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey today. Look for part two either later this week or early next week.

Back on September 5th, we published a report looking at some recent currency-translation effects on McDonald’s quarterly EPS. That report included our formula for projection the currency effect on a given quarter’s EPS, and is available at:

Back on May 23rd, we published a report in which we looked at the breakdown of McDonald’s full-year 2023E operating income by geography. That report can be accessed at:

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.17, nicely above our $2.82 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.79.

Today we publish part two of two of the July 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether our franchisee respondents would like to sell Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) doughnuts in their own McDonald’s restaurants. As a reminder, back on June 29th, we published a report in which we indicated that we believe the 160 McDonald’s restaurants in Kentucky testing the sale of Krispy Kreme doughnuts in those restaurants are seeing average weekly sales of 800-900 doughnuts per restaurant. In addition, those sales appear to be highly incremental. Furthermore, an argument can be made that the sales of the Krispy Kreme doughnuts are helping to drive incremental sales of some non-doughnut menu items. For more info:

Today we publish part two of two of the July 2023 edition of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. This report examines whether our franchisee respondents would like to sell Krispy Kreme (KREM; Not Rated) doughnuts in their own McDonald’s restaurants. As a reminder, back on June 29th, we published a report in which we indicated that we believe the 160 McDonald’s restaurants in Kentucky testing the sale of Krispy Kreme doughnuts in those restaurants are seeing average weekly sales of 800-900 doughnuts per restaurant. In addition, those sales appear to be highly incremental. Furthermore, an argument can be made that the sales of the Krispy Kreme doughnuts are helping to drive incremental sales of some non-doughnut menu items. For more info: