Restaurant Industry

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2026 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2026 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King each recently reported their Q1 2026 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2026 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.7% in April 2026, -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 57.0% set in February 2026.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.9% in April — sequentially up by +100 basis points since March’s +1.9%. This +2.9% number for April compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -20 basis points from March’s +3.8%). This marks the 37th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.8% in March 2026, -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 57.0% set in February 2026. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q1 2026 left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in March — sequentially down by -50 basis points since February’s +2.4%. This +1.9% number for March compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially down by -10 basis points from February’s +3.9%). This marks the 36th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2026 to +2.2%. Glass-half full, this marks the best quarter for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard since a +3.6% number was posted back in Q4 2023. Glass-half empty, the +2.2% figure for Q1 2026 is still below the long-term (Q1 2015-Q4 2025) quarterly median of +2.6%. Things are getting better, but not rapidly so.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to +0.1%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2026 is at +15.7%. Our +0.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +3.5%. On a pre-pandemic basis (compared to Q1 2019), the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2026 is at +35.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to down by -1.0%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2026 is at +7.8%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +3.3%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2026 is at +33.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to +2.5%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2026 is at +28.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to -1.5%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2026 is at +53.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in January 2026, a mere -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 56.7% set in November 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during the first part of Q1 2026 left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in February — sequentially up by +30 basis points since January’s +2.1%. This +2.4% number for February compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in February (sequentially down by -10 basis points from January’s +4.0%). This marks the 35th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Intouch Insight recently published the 2026 edition of its annual “Pizza Delivery and Carryout Study.” In this publication, the results from 600 mystery shops across ten different pizza concepts were examined. These brands include Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns – the publicly-traded pizza concepts that rank #1, #2, and #4 in terms of domestic systemwide sales within the pizza sector. In general, this report from Intouch Insight is the most comprehensive report of its type — focusing on the pizza sector — that we have come across in our 25+ years of researching the restaurant industry. Today, we look at results from the Intouch Insight report in the critical areas of Speed of Service, Order Accuracy, and Delivery Driver Friendliness.

Intouch Insight recently published the 2026 edition of its annual “Pizza Delivery and Carryout Study.” In this publication, the results from 600 mystery shops across ten different pizza concepts were examined. These brands include Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns – the publicly-traded pizza concepts that rank #1, #2, and #4 in terms of domestic systemwide sales within the pizza sector. In general, this report from Intouch Insight is the most comprehensive report of its type — focusing on the pizza sector — that we have come across in our 25+ years of researching the restaurant industry. Today, we look at results from the Intouch Insight report in the critical areas of Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Food Temperature by Brand, and Pizza Taste Rating by Brand.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in December 2025, just -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record of 56.7% set in November 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q4 2025 were lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.1% in January — sequentially down by -30 basis points since December’s +2.4%. This +2.1% number for January compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -10 basis points from December’s +4.1%). This marks the 34th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2025 to +1.6%. All in all, this ties for the second-best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. But, it’s still over a percentage point below the long-term average, and does not imply any sequential improvement from Q3 2025. It has been a long two years for the domestic restaurant industry!

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +2.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 2025 is at +23.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +2.0%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 2025 is at +28.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in November 2025, tying the all-time record set in five different months so far this year. It’s also sequentially up by +10 basis points from October 2025’s 56.4% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to -3.6%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2025 is at +40.8%. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in December — sequentially up by +50 basis points since November’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number for December compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in December (sequentially up by +40 basis points from November’s +3.7%). This marks the 33rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to -0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 2025 is at +14.8%. Our -0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +3.5%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 2025 is at +31.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to down by -1.9%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 2025 is at +3.0%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. In that frame of mind, we published notes examining this simple strategy back on January 8, 2023, on January 7, 2024, and on January 6, 2025. With this note, we take an updated look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

We began publishing our Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index – a same-store sales index with all components consisting of publicly-traded restaurant concepts, weighted by those concepts’ domestic system sales – back in mid-2018, starting with an index number for Q2 2018. As of this writing, through the end of Q3 2025, we have published 30 index numbers ahead of these components publicly reporting their same-store sales results. In that context, it’s a reasonable question to ask: how has our index performed over time, relative to the eventual, publicly-reported results for the components?

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in November — sequentially down by a pretty big -80 basis points since September’s +2.7%. (Due to the recent government shutdown, data for October was not published.) This +1.9% number for November compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in November (sequentially the same as September’s +3.7%). This marks the 32nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in October 2025. This is sequentially down by -20 basis points from September 2025’s 56.5% market share. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in September 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from August 2025’s 56.5% market share. The 56.6% figure also sets a new all-time monthly record. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

On its 11/5/25 conference call, McDonald’s mentioned that beverages are “a global category of more than $100 billion that’s growing much faster than the broader IEO [informal eating out] industry. In the U.S., we launched a beverage test in more than 500 restaurants across Colorado and Wisconsin at the beginning of September. The product mix includes cold coffees, fruity refreshers, crafted sodas and energy-based drinks. Initial results are exceeding expectations, with strong satisfaction scores across the board. And the new beverage offerings are driving incremental occasions across different dayparts as well as higher average check. We’re excited to see progress continue with the test as we deepen our understanding, drive innovation and evaluate how these offerings could enhance our long-term beverage strategy in the U.S. and abroad.” (bold ours)

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in September — sequentially the same as higher than August’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for September compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in September (sequentially -20 basis points below August’s +3.9%) This marks the 30th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is tied for the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2025 to +1.6%. While this isn’t a great quarter by any stretch of the imagination, it is nevertheless the best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. Has the industry — slowly — finally turned the corner?

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +1.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2025 is at +20.4%. Our +1.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +5.1%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 2025 is at +29.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +3.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2025 is at +26.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +0.3%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 2025 is at +25.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to up by +1.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2025 is at +8.1%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2025 is at +48.9%. This +48.9% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early September.

In recent days, we have published notes examining the pricing changes at McDonald’s and Wendy’s for combo meals. Today, we look at Burger King’s recent pricing changes for combo meals.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in August 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from July 2025’s 56.4% market share. The 56.5% figure also ties the all-time monthly record, also set in May 2025 and June 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q2 2025 — and Q3 2025 so far — appear to have left quite a bit to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in July — sequentially +50 basis points higher than July’s +2.2%. This +2.7% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in July (sequentially the same as July’s +3.9%) This marks the 29th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

In this report, we look at the specific fiscal year-ends for 30 restaurant companies, and note when the next 53-week fiscal year will be for many of them.

Earlier this week, we published a note examining how each of our covered restaurant stocks have historically traded during: (1) the seven calendar days (week) heading into an earnings release, and (2) the trading session immediately after an earnings release. That note is available at:

In this note, we compare and contrast how each of our covered restaurant stocks have historically traded during: (1) the seven calendar days (week) heading into an earnings release, and (2) the trading session immediately after an earnings release. What patterns emerge? What can we learn from this? This note is part one of two planned notes examing the answers to these questions. (We plan to publish part two later this week.) To answer these questions, we looked at the performance of our covered stocks — relative to the S&P 500’s performance — for the last 42 earnings releases.