Restaurant Industry

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in September 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from August 2025’s 56.5% market share. The 56.6% figure also sets a new all-time monthly record. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q3 2025 — and Q4 2025 so far — appear lackluster, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

On its 11/5/25 conference call, McDonald’s mentioned that beverages are “a global category of more than $100 billion that’s growing much faster than the broader IEO [informal eating out] industry. In the U.S., we launched a beverage test in more than 500 restaurants across Colorado and Wisconsin at the beginning of September. The product mix includes cold coffees, fruity refreshers, crafted sodas and energy-based drinks. Initial results are exceeding expectations, with strong satisfaction scores across the board. And the new beverage offerings are driving incremental occasions across different dayparts as well as higher average check. We’re excited to see progress continue with the test as we deepen our understanding, drive innovation and evaluate how these offerings could enhance our long-term beverage strategy in the U.S. and abroad.” (bold ours)

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in September — sequentially the same as higher than August’s +2.7%. This +2.7% number for September compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in September (sequentially -20 basis points below August’s +3.9%) This marks the 30th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is tied for the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2025 to +1.6%. While this isn’t a great quarter by any stretch of the imagination, it is nevertheless the best quarter since Q4 2023’s +3.6% result. Has the industry — slowly — finally turned the corner?

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +1.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2025 is at +20.4%. Our +1.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +5.1%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 2025 is at +29.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +3.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2025 is at +26.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +0.3%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 2025 is at +25.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to up by +1.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2025 is at +8.1%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2025 is at +48.9%. This +48.9% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early September.

In recent days, we have published notes examining the pricing changes at McDonald’s and Wendy’s for combo meals. Today, we look at Burger King’s recent pricing changes for combo meals.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in August 2025. This is sequentially up by +10 basis points from July 2025’s 56.4% market share. The 56.5% figure also ties the all-time monthly record, also set in May 2025 and June 2025. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q2 2025 — and Q3 2025 so far — appear to have left quite a bit to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.7% in July — sequentially +50 basis points higher than July’s +2.2%. This +2.7% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in July (sequentially the same as July’s +3.9%) This marks the 29th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. Yet, the +2.7% figure for food-at-home inflation is the highest of any month since August 2023’s +3.0% number.

In this report, we look at the specific fiscal year-ends for 30 restaurant companies, and note when the next 53-week fiscal year will be for many of them.

Earlier this week, we published a note examining how each of our covered restaurant stocks have historically traded during: (1) the seven calendar days (week) heading into an earnings release, and (2) the trading session immediately after an earnings release. That note is available at:

In this note, we compare and contrast how each of our covered restaurant stocks have historically traded during: (1) the seven calendar days (week) heading into an earnings release, and (2) the trading session immediately after an earnings release. What patterns emerge? What can we learn from this? This note is part one of two planned notes examing the answers to these questions. (We plan to publish part two later this week.) To answer these questions, we looked at the performance of our covered stocks — relative to the S&P 500’s performance — for the last 42 earnings releases.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in July 2025. This is sequentially down by -20 basis points from June 2025’s 56.4% market share. (The all-time record for any month remains at 56.5%, from May 2025.) So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q2 2025 — and Q3 2025 so far — appear to have left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers meaningfully shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.2% in July — sequentially -20 basis points lower than June’s +2.4%. This +2.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in July (sequentially up by +10 basis points from June’s +3.8%) This marks the 28th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.5% in June 2025. This is sequentially the same as May 2025’s 56.5% market share. Both of these figures remain all-time records for the restaurant industry in this regard. So, even though same-store sales for most large restaurant concepts during Q2 2025 appear to have left something to be desired, this dynamic does not appear to be due to consumers shifting their food spend to grocery stores and supermarkets.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in June — sequentially +20 basis points higher than May’s +2.2%. This +2.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in June (sequentially the same as May’s +3.8%) This marks the 27th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2025 to +0.7%. This is sequentially improved from Q1 2025’s -0.4% result, which was the weakest non-pandemic quarter of the last 10+ years. However, +0.7% is nothing to get excited about, to be sure. For one thing, the Q1 2025 result was weather-impacted (particularly from a cold/snowy February). The Q2 2025 number was not weather-impacted to any material degree. So, when one excludes the effects of February weather, the Q2 2025 same-store sales trends for the industry were very similar to those of Q1 2025.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to -0.6%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 2025 is at +17.5%. Our -0.6% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +2.4%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 2025 is at +30.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +5.1%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 2025 is at +37.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to up by +0.6%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 2025 is at +0.1%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

With this report, we update our Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to -1.6%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2025 is at +54.5%. This +54.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +0.2%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 2025 is at +26.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.4% in May 2025. This is not only equal to the April 2025 market-share figure of 56.4%, but it ties that month for the all-time high for the restaurant industry for any month.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.2% in May — sequentially +20 basis points higher than April’s +2.0%. This +2.2% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in April (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +3.9%). This marks the 26th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Last week, we published report looking at the results of mystery shops involving: (1) drive-thru AI order taking at Wendy’s, Taco Bell, and Bojangles, and (2) mobile ordering for pickup at Chipotle Mexican Grill, Dutch Bros, and Wingstop. Those reports are available at:

Earlier this week, we published a report looking at the results of mystery shops involving drive-thru AI order taking at Wendy’s, Taco Bell, and Bojangles. That report is available at:

While drive-thru AI order-taking technology is presently in its infancy, we expect it to continue to grow significantly in coming years. Eventually, AI order-taking should become the standard at the drive-thru in a majority of quick-service restaurants… although it will admittedly take quite a few years to get there.

California infamously raised its minimum wage for most quick-service/fast-casual employees to $20 per hour as of April 1, 2024. The bill containing this provision – AB1228 — was signed into law on September 28, 2023. As such, restaurant concepts only had about three months’ worth of official advance notice as regards their unit-opening plans for 2024. There has been much more advance notice — in addition to several months’ worth of operating results — as regards plans to 2025. So, we ask: To what extent, if any, did all this affect unit-growth plans for California in 2025?

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q1 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $149.65]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2025 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2025 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.6% in April 2025. This is not only +30 basis points sequentially higher than the March 2025 market-share figure of 56.3%, but it also represents a new all-time high for the restaurant industry for any month.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.0% in April — sequentially -40 basis points lower than March’s +2.4%. This +2.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in April (sequentially up by +10 basis points from March’s +3.8%). This marks the 25th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in March 2025. This is only -20 basis points below the all-time high of 56.5%, set in November 2024. The March 2025 data also shows a +20 basis-point sequential advance in market share from February 2025.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2025 to +0.5%. This is sequentially a little worse than Q4 2024’s +0.8% result, neither of which were all that encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, Q1 2025 is the second-worst quarter since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% showing. At least over Q2-Q4 2025, the industry will be lapping weak numbers, and not having to deal with as much winter/cold weather as it did in Q1 2025. That said, it’s clear that Q1 2025 dealt with much more than challenging weather.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in March — sequentially +50 basis points higher than February’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially up by +10 basis points from February’s +3.7%). This marks the 24th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to down by -0.9%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +3.8%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2025 is at +28.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +4.2%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +29.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its free-standing & drive-thru restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is looking like that target might be met in the not-too-distant future.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to 0.0%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2025 is at +18.2%. Our 0.0% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to -1.6%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2025 is at +27.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +2.3%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2025 is at +55.8%. This +55.8% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Last week, we published a report based on data provided by Intouch Insight regarding mystery shops at 12 different pizza purveyors. In that report, we looked at Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand: