Starbucks plans to release its fiscal Q2 (calendar Q1) 2021 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, April 27th. How do SBUX shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day after an earnings release?
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1E to +7.1%. This is the first positive quarter since Q4 2019’s +4.2% showing. The Q1 2020/21 two-year number works out to +3.5%. (The Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index declined by -3.4% in Q1 2020, followed by its worst-ever performance
of -17.5% in Q2 2020.)
Ahead of Starbucks’ fiscal Q2 earnings release planned for after the market close on Tuesday, April 27th, we raise our fiscal Q2E U.S. same-store sales forecast by +1 percentage point, to +9%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this places us as the “high forecast on the sell-side” in this regard. As of this writing, sell-side consensus for fiscal Q2E U.S. same-store sales is at +6.7%, although remember that Starbucks does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point.