MCD: The Bull and Bear Cases on McDonald’s

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 16, 2021 at 4:49 PM

In this report we examine the bull and bear cases regarding McDonald’s (MCD; Buy, $220.46). While we maintain our Buy rating on MCD — it continues to be our top large-cap restaurant-stock pick — it is good for investors interested in MCD to be aware of the bull and bear cases surrounding the stock, no matter what our rating on the shares is.

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Restaurants: Key Info for Accurately Calculating Two-Year Same-Store Sales

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 15, 2021 at 4:31 PM

Normally, when looking at two-year same-store sales trends, the magnitude of the numbers involved is so low that the two-year rate is calculated by just adding the two years together. The “errors” this simple method produces are negligible. For example, a concept that generates +5.0% same-store sales in the year-ago period, and -5.0% same-store sales in the current period, would have a simple-method two-year number of 0.0%. But the actual math works out to a two-year figure of -0.3%, because the base in the current period is +5.0% larger than what it was in the year-ago period.

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Restaurants: BlackBox Index for Feb. 2021 Could be Last Negative for a While

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 11, 2021 at 4:37 PM

Earlier today (Thursday, March 11th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for February 2021 was down by -12.6%, with same-store traffic off by -19.1%. The -12.6% figure is 770 basis points sequentially worse than the January 2021 index number of -4.9%.

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