Restaurants: The BlackBox Index for January 2021 Shows Stimulus Benefits

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 11, 2021 at 5:15 PM

Earlier today (Thursday, February 11th) we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for January 2021 was down by -4.9%, with same-store traffic off by -12.2%. The -4.9% figure is +840 basis points better than the -13.3% number for December 2020, and +550 basis points better than the -10.3% figure for Q4 2020 as a whole.

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DPZ: How Does Domino’s Stock Trade Heading Into, and During, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 9, 2021 at 2:54 PM

Domino’s plans to release its Q4 2020 earnings before the market open on Thursday, February 25th. How do DPZ shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and on the day of an earnings release?

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DENN: Updating Our Stock Rating and EPS Projections

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 8, 2021 at 2:57 PM

With this note, we change our rating on Denny’s (DENN; $17.41) to Neutral (from Buy). This change reflects: (1) lowered EPS estimates for 2021E and 2022E, and (2) a reduced same-store sales forecast for Q1E 2021, despite what appears to be some meaningful help from a calendar-shift effect related to Denny’s 2020 being a 53-week fiscal year, and (3) being mindful of DENN shares’ run-up from their 52-week low of $4.50 (intraday March 19, 2020) to $17.41 as of this past Friday’s market close. (FYI, the stock is also up +18.6% year-to-date.)

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