YUM (Post-Call): U.S. Same-Store Sales Off to Double-Digit Start in Early 2021

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 4, 2021 at 3:00 PM

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $1.15, above our $1.01 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.01. We calculate that the Q4 adjusted tax rate was approximately 8.5%, much more favorable than our 21.0% estimate and consensus of 20.8%. We further calculate that relative to our tax-rate projection, the actual adjusted Q4 tax rate added about +15 cents to Q4 adjusted EPS. Excluding this factor, Q4 adjusted EPS would have been closer to $1.00.

WEN: The Groundhog Sees… Us Updating Our Wendy’s Forecasts

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 2, 2021 at 3:05 PM

With this note, we raise our full-Q1E Wendy’s U.S. same-store sales forecast by +300 basis points, to +10.0%. According to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus for Q1E as of this writing is at +7.3%.

Restaurants: Roark Capital Raising $5 Billion; What Could it Acquire Next?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on January 31, 2021 at 3:10 PM

In a document dated January 28th filed with the SEC, privately-held Roark Capital indicates that it plans to raise $5 billion for its latest fund, Roark Capital Partners VI (T) LP. Roark already owns 20+ restaurant concepts, and that excludes its strategic investment in The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral, $44.97). What restaurant concept or concepts might Roark acquire next?