Restaurant Industry

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +2.4% in March — sequentially +50 basis points higher than February’s +1.9%. This +2.4% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in March (sequentially up by +10 basis points from February’s +3.7%). This marks the 24th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 to down by -0.9%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 to +3.8%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels – a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2025 is at +28.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 to +4.2%. On a pre-pandemic basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1 2025 is at +29.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and March.

We continue to hear that privately-held Chick-fil-A — the 3rd-largest U.S. restaurant concept — targets $10 million average unit volumes (AUVs) for its free-standing & drive-thru restaurants. And, given the concept’s distinct advantages — such as great in-store technology — it is looking like that target might be met in the not-too-distant future.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 to 0.0%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1 2025 is at +18.2%. Our 0.0% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 to -1.6%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1 2025 is at +27.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 to +2.3%. Comparing to Q1 2019 levels — a pre-pandemic basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1 2025 is at +55.8%. This +55.8% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and early-to-mid March.

Last week, we published a report based on data provided by Intouch Insight regarding mystery shops at 12 different pizza purveyors. In that report, we looked at Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand:

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.6% in February 2025. This is -90 basis points below the all-time high, set in November 2024. The February 2025 data also shows a -40 basis-point sequential decline in market share from January 2025.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in February — sequentially the same as January’s +1.9%. This +1.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.7% year-over-year in February (sequentially up by +30 basis points from January’s +3.4%). This marks the 23rd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. We would also note that the +30 basis-point sequential gain for restaurant pricing is the largest such sequential gain since a +40 basis-point move back in March 2023.

Intouch Insight recently published its “2025 Pizza Delivery and Carryout Study.” In this publication, the results from mystery shoppers in late 2024 at 12 leading pizza purveyors were examined. These brands include Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $440.03), Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $158.09]), and Papa Johns (PZZA; Buy, $48.97) – the publicly-traded pizza concepts that rank #1, #2, and #4 in terms of domestic systemwide sales within the pizza sector. In general, this report from Intouch Insight is the most comprehensive report of its type that we have come across in our 25+ years of researching the restaurant industry. Today, we look at results from the Intouch Insight report in the critical areas of Overall Satisfaction by Brand, Satisfaction with Speed of Service by Brand, and Total Time by Brand.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.4% in January 2025. This matches the all-time high, previously also set in November 2024. The January 2025 data marks a sequential reversal from December 2024, which is the only month in which the restaurant industry ceded market share to the grocery industry since pandemic-affected February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.9% in January — sequentially up by +10 basis points from December’s +1.8%. This +1.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.4% year-over-year in January (sequentially down by -20 basis points from December’s +3.6%). This marks the 22nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in January 2025 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q4 2024 to +0.7%. While this is sequentially a little better than Q3 2024’s +0.2% result, it’s still not all that encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, all four quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number. At least in 2025, the industry will be lapping weak numbers throughout the year.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 to +2.7%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +28.1%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in December 2024. This is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was actually not a gain at all, as the December 2023 market share was 56.3% — restaurants lost about -20 basis points of market share in December 2024 year-over-year. This is the first month in which restaurant lost market share since the pandemic-affected February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.8% in December — sequentially up by +20 basis points from November’s +1.6%. This +1.8% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in December (sequentially equal to November’s +3.6%). This marks the 21st month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in December 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +17.5%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4 2024 is at +32.0%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. In that frame of mind, we published note examining this simple strategy back on January 8, 2023 and on January 7, 2024. With this note, we take an updated look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

In the past, we’ve sometimes remarked to buysiders that it wouldn’t be a bad investment strategy — when choosing between large-cap restaurant stocks McDonald’s and Yum Brands — to simply pick the one with the more attractive (i.e., lower) valuation. In that frame of mind, we published note examining this simple strategy back on January 8, 2023 and on January 7, 2024. With this note, we take an updated look at that approach as a possible simple investment strategy.

Looking back to the end of 2009, and through the end of 12/31/24, the value of $10,000 invested in the Kalinowski top picks would now be worth $108,600 (a CAGR of about +17.2%). The value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over that time would now be worth $76,776 (a CAGR of about +14.6%).

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4 to +2.0%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2024 is at +19.2%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2024 is at +44.7%. This +44.7% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +0.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +4.7%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in November 2024. This is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was less than +10 basis points, marking the lowest year-over-year rise in share for the restaurant industry since February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.6% in November — sequentially up by +50 basis points from October’s +1.1%. This +1.6% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from October’s +3.8%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in November 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

Over the last 10-15 years, multiple large restaurant concepts have launched a breakfast daypart in the U.S., with varying degrees of success (or lack of it). These concepts include three of the largest (top-ten sized) U.S. restaurant concepts, Taco Bell (4th-largest domestic restaurant concept, as ranked by U.S. systemwide sales), Burger King (7th-largest), and Subway (8th-largest). Which brings us to the question: which large, quick-service restaurant concept that doesn’t currently have a meaningful breakfast business, might have the courage one day to launch a breakfast business?

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $132.88]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.4% in October 2024. This is a new all-time high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. The year-over-year gain was about +40 basis points, marking slight sequential acceleration from September 2024’s +30 basis-point market-share rise.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in October — sequentially down by -20 basis points from September’s +1.3%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -10 basis points from September’s +3.9%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in September 2024. This 56.1% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in September — sequentially up by +40 basis points from August’s +0.9%. This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -10 basis points from August’s +4.0%). This marks the 19th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2024 to +0.8%. This is sequentially similar to Q2 2024’s +0.9% showing, not to mention Q1 2024’s +0.9% result. This is not encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, the first three quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.3%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +20.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +0.2%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 2024 is at +25.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +19.2%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to -0.4%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2024 is at +22.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in August 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +0.9% in August — sequentially down by -20 basis points from July’s +1.1%. This +0.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -10 basis points from July’s +4.1%). This marks the 18th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

We have published four reports in recent days looking at various domestic same-store sales correlations for large restaurant concepts within their sector. However, this report looks at Taco Bell – by quite a wide margin, the largest concept in the Quick-Service Other space as we define it, via nearly $15.0 billion in 2023 U.S. systemwide sales – and compares its same-store sales with those of several quick-service and fast-casual concepts regardless of sector. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Taco Bell?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for Olive Garden, Texas Roadhouse, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback Steakhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory – six of the seven largest casual dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When The Cheesecake Factory’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Applebee’s?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for IHOP, Denny’s, and Cracker Barrel – the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest family dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Cracker Barrel’s same-store sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Denny’s and IHOP?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Domino’s sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Papa Johns?”

In this report, we look at the specific fiscal year-ends for 30 restaurant companies, and note when the next 53-week fiscal year will be for many of them.

In this report, we look at the correlations for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, and Jack in the Box in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s sales go down, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Wendy’s?”