Restaurant Industry

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 to +6.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4 2024 is at +44.7%. This +44.7% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 to +0.3%. Comparing to Q4 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4 2024 is at +4.7%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and early-to-mid December.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.3% in November 2024. This is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. But, the year-over-year gain was less than +10 basis points, marking the lowest year-over-year rise in share for the restaurant industry since February 2021.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.6% in November — sequentially up by +50 basis points from October’s +1.1%. This +1.6% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.6% year-over-year in November (sequentially down by -20 basis points from October’s +3.8%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing. However, the gap between grocery pricing and restaurant pricing in November 2024 was the smallest since April 2023’s -150 basis-point gap.

Over the last 10-15 years, multiple large restaurant concepts have launched a breakfast daypart in the U.S., with varying degrees of success (or lack of it). These concepts include three of the largest (top-ten sized) U.S. restaurant concepts, Taco Bell (4th-largest domestic restaurant concept, as ranked by U.S. systemwide sales), Burger King (7th-largest), and Subway (8th-largest). Which brings us to the question: which large, quick-service restaurant concept that doesn’t currently have a meaningful breakfast business, might have the courage one day to launch a breakfast business?

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $132.88]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q3 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.4% in October 2024. This is a new all-time high for the domestic restaurant industry in this regard. The year-over-year gain was about +40 basis points, marking slight sequential acceleration from September 2024’s +30 basis-point market-share rise.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in October — sequentially down by -20 basis points from September’s +1.3%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.8% year-over-year in October (sequentially down by -10 basis points from September’s +3.9%). This marks the 20th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.1% in September 2024. This 56.1% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.3% in September — sequentially up by +40 basis points from August’s +0.9%. This +1.3% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +3.9% year-over-year in September (sequentially down by -10 basis points from August’s +4.0%). This marks the 19th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3 2024 to +0.8%. This is sequentially similar to Q2 2024’s +0.9% showing, not to mention Q1 2024’s +0.9% result. This is not encouraging. Excluding pandemic-hit quarters, the first three quarters of 2024 are the worst such quarters since Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 to +2.3%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +20.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 to +0.2%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3 2024 is at +25.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 to +0.5%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3 2024 is at +19.2%. Our +0.5% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 to -0.4%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q3 2024 is at +6.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3 2024 is at +22.9%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 to +8.2%. Comparing to Q3 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3 2024 is at +46.6%. This +46.6% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and early-to-mid September.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in August 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +30 basis points year-over-year. This is the second-smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +0.9% in August — sequentially down by -20 basis points from July’s +1.1%. This +0.9% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in August (sequentially down by -10 basis points from July’s +4.1%). This marks the 18th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

We have published four reports in recent days looking at various domestic same-store sales correlations for large restaurant concepts within their sector. However, this report looks at Taco Bell – by quite a wide margin, the largest concept in the Quick-Service Other space as we define it, via nearly $15.0 billion in 2023 U.S. systemwide sales – and compares its same-store sales with those of several quick-service and fast-casual concepts regardless of sector. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Taco Bell?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for Olive Garden, Texas Roadhouse, Applebee’s, Chili’s, Outback Steakhouse, and The Cheesecake Factory – six of the seven largest casual dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When The Cheesecake Factory’s same-store sales trend higher, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Applebee’s?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for IHOP, Denny’s, and Cracker Barrel – the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest family dining concepts, as ranked by full-year 2023 U.S. system sales — in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Cracker Barrel’s same-store sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Denny’s and IHOP?”

In this report, we look at the correlations for Domino’s, Pizza Hut, and Papa Johns in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When Domino’s sales go up, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Papa Johns?”

In this report, we look at the specific fiscal year-ends for 30 restaurant companies, and note when the next 53-week fiscal year will be for many of them.

In this report, we look at the correlations for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, Burger King, and Jack in the Box in terms of their respective domestic same-store sales. This should help answer questions such as, “When McDonald’s sales go down, does that tend to be a good sign, or a bad sign, for the same-store sales trends of Wendy’s?”

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in July 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 55.8% figure is only -50 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +10 basis points year-over-year. This is the smallest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since it gave up -710 basis points of share in a pandemic-affected February 2021 (which lapped a pre-pandemic February 2020).

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in July — sequentially the same as June’s +1.1%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in July (sequentially equivalent to June’s +4.1%). This marks the 17th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

In a stunning move, Starbucks names Brian Niccol as its new CEO and Chairman. Mr. Niccol, of course, had been the CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill since March 5, 2018. Our bottom line: good for Starbucks, acting quickly given its now apparent “buyer’s remorse” with its prior CEO. And while this will be viewed as bad for Chipotle in the short term, Mr. Niccol had been CEO there 6+ years, so perhaps the opportunity to bring some new thinking to that highly-respected company isn’t the worst thing in the world for the long run.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 56.2% in June 2024. Putting a silver lining on it, this 56.2% figure is only -10 basis points below the all-time monthly record. However, it’s up by only +60 basis points year-over-year. This is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain attained in July 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2 2024 to +1.8%. This is the second-lowest quarterly showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Excluding last quarter’s (Q1 2024’s) +0.9% result, and looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q2 2024 was. Clearly, some meaningful portion of consumers are modifying their restaurant spending habits. Multiple large restaurant companies have indicated that consumers from lower-income households, in particular, are becoming more conservative in their approach to restaurants.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in June — sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +1.0%. This +1.1% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.1% year-over-year in June (sequentially up by +10 basis points from May’s +4.0%). This marks the 16th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 to +1.9%. On a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis, the Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2 is at +23.8%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 to +0.9%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2 2024 is at +27.4%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 to +0.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2 2024 is at -0.6%. This is the lowest such number of any major U.S. restaurant industry segment. Our latest numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 to +2.1%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2 2024 is at +19.1%. Our +2.1% figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and June.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q2 to +3.0%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1 2024 is at +27.6%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early-to-mid June.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.9% in May 2024. This 55.9% figure is only -40 basis points below the all-time monthly record. And while it’s also up by +60 basis points on a year-over-year basis, this is the lowest year-over-year market-share gain for the restaurant industry since a +20 basis-point gain notched in July 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 to +8.8%. Comparing to Q2 2019 levels — a five-year (pre-pandemic) basis — the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2 2024 is at +50.5%. This +50.5% figure is the best of any major restaurant sector. Our latest fast-casual numbers are based on our proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.0% in May — sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +1.1%. This +1.0% number compares with price for food-away-from-home (restaurants) that increased by +4.0% year-over-year in May (sequentially down by -10 basis points from April’s +4.1%). This marks the 15th month in a row for which restaurant pricing is outpacing grocery/supermarket pricing.

Back on April 3rd, we published a report looking at changes in Burger King’s (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) menu prices for two different combos sold at 25 of its restaurants in California over the 2/15/24-4/2/24 time frame:

California raised its minimum wage for most quick-service/fast-casual employees to $20 per hour as of April 1, 2024. The bill containing this provision – AB1228 — was signed into law on September 28, 2023. As such, restaurant concepts had several months’ advance notice that per-hour labor costs would be going up meaningfully in this key state. To what extent, if any, did this affect unit-growth plans for California in 2024?

Recently, Domino’s, Pizza Hut (owned by Yum Brands [YUM; Neutral, $135.86]), and Papa Johns all reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) each recently reported their Q1 2024 U.S. same-store sales. In this report, we discuss how these same-store sales results — and potential results for full-year 2024 — relate to these three concepts’ average unit volumes (AUVs). We further discuss what this means for the companies, and their stocks.

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.8% in April 2024. This 55.8% figure is only -30 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +90 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.1% in April — sequentially down by -10 basis points from March’s +1.2%.

We reviewed the recently-published Franchise Disclosure Documents (FDDs) for McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and Burger King — the largest, 2nd-largest, and 3rd-largest quick-service burger concepts in the U.S. Among our observations:

Data out today from the U.S. Census shows that restaurants’ market share (with grocery stores/supermarkets making up the other component) was 55.7% in March 2024. This 55.7% figure is only -20 basis points below the all-time monthly record. It’s also up by +130 basis points on a year-over-year basis.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows that prices for food-at-home (grocery stores and supermarkets) rose by +1.2% in March — sequentially up by +20 basis points from February’s +1.0%. This marks the first sequential rise in grocery pricing since August 2022.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1 2024 to +1.3%. This is the lowest showing since Q4 2020’s -2.2% — and that quarter was hit in part by the pandemic. Looking at quarters not affected by the pandemic, we have to go back to Q4 2016’s weak +0.6% number to find a quarter as sluggish as Q1 2024 was. While some of this reflects adverse weather, particularly during January 2024, it could be a sign of challenging same-store sales in general for the rest of 2024, particularly if lower-income consumers remain more conservative in their restaurant spending than they were during 2023.