YUM Brands Inc. (YUM)

Earlier today (Tuesday), Yum Brands reported adjusted second-quarter EPS of $1.35. While this was one cent short of our $1.36 forecast, it came in two cents above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.33.

The quick-service part of the domestic restaurant industry is more challenged on the sales front so far during 2024 than it was over the 2021-23 time period. Part of this relates to some consumers getting fed up with higher prices. Although the worst inflation in 40+ years affected virtually every industry, disproportionate media attention has been paid as of late to fast-food prices. Couple this with a more conservative approach to restaurant spending by lower-income households, and it’s not a surprise that some large quick-service burger concepts have rolled out – or will roll out soon – some meal deals that emphasize value.

Back on April 2nd, we published a Taco Bell-focused report looking at changes in menu prices for two different combos sold at 25 of its restaurants in California over the 2/14/24-4/1/24 time frame:

Yum Brands remains one of the foremost – arguably, the foremost – aggregator of multiple restaurant concepts in the world. Its KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut brands are legendary. Yum Brands also acquired the fast-casual Habit Burger concept back in early 2020. We believe that Yum will make additional concept acquisitions in the future. Toward that end, it seems that there is one concept in particular that it makes a lot of sense for Yum to seriously think about acquiring.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.15. This fell short of our $1.25 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.21.

Over the last 24 hours or so, we have published notes detailing menu-price increases at 25 Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants in California, as well as 20 Starbucks locations in California. Those notes are available at:

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported that its Q4 adjusted EPS amounted to $1.26. This was short of our $1.50 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.42. We attribute most of the earnings miss to weaker-than-expected same-store sales for Yum’s largest three concepts.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $1.44. This surpassed our $1.30 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.28.

Earlier this week, we published a report in which we examined McDonald’s and the effect various currencies can have on its quarterly EPS. That report is available at:

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.41. This surpassed our $1.23 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.24.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.06. However, this includes a -7 cent hit from “unrealized investment losses.” Excluding these investment losses, EPS would have been $1.13, closer to our $1.15 forecast, and matching sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.13.

We look for Yum Brands – the parent company of KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, and The Habit Burger Grill – to report its Q1 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, May 3rd.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.31, five cents above our $1.26 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.26. The adjusted Q4 tax rate was 12.3%, more favorable than our 22.7% estimate and consensus of 22.5%. By our math, this more favorable tax rate helped Q4 EPS by approximately +14 cents. In other words, Q4 EPS would have missed Street expectations absent this tax-rate assistance.

Earlier today, Yum Brands hosted an Analyst Meeting in New York City. As part of this, the company updated its long-term annualized growth algorithm as follows:

On September 29th, we published a Yum Brands report looking at potential concept acquisitions in the Mediterranean space. This was following some September 20th remarks at a competitor conference by Yum Brands CFO Chris Turner:

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $1.09, short of our $1.14 projection and consensus of $1.15. However, the adjusted Q3 tax rate of 26.7% was meaningfully higher than our 21.7% estimate and consensus of 21.6%. By our calculations, this difference cost Yum Brands about -7 cents in Q3 EPS. In other words, if the Q3 adjusted tax rate had matched our estimate, then Q3 adjusted EPS would have been $1.16 — two cents above our forecast and one cent above consensus.

On August 3rd, Yum Brands indicated that it anticipates the full-year 2022 impact on its operating profits from currencies to be in the -$70 million to -$90 million range. By our calculations, the EPS effect of this range would be -19 cents to -24 cents. However, since that date, currencies have continued to move against Yum Brands.

Appearing at a competitor conference this past September 20th, Yum Brands CFO Chris Turner made some remarks about potential acquisitions: “We’re keeping our eyes open. To do something that’s a bet-of-the-company size, that would be a really, really high bar before we decide to do something like that. But, I think you could imagine us being really interested in a smaller brand like Habit [which Yum acquired in March 2020], and saying, how can we unlock growth? Of course, we’re always scanning categories. There’s lots of – we’re probably not going to do something that is directly competitive with our current categories or franchisees – but [there’s] a lot of interesting categories outside of that. We’re always looking at different spaces. The Mediterranean food space is interesting. There’s lots of interesting categories out there that we’re studying.”

Yum Brands’ quick-service Mexican concept Taco Bell acknowledges that the official return date for its Mexican Pizza will be Thursday, September 15th (with loyalty program members getting early access on September 13th). Mexican Pizza was a permanent menu item from its inception in 1985 (when it was known as “Pizzazz Pizza”) until its discontinuation in November 2020. This discontinuation caused a social-media uproar, when eventually led to Mexican Pizza being reintroduced in mid-May 2022.

Earlier today (Wednesday), Yum Brands reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.05, falling short of our $1.13 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.10. We attribute the shortfall primarily to: (1) weaker-than-expected same-store sales at KFC and Pizza Hut (including both brands in China and the U.S.), and (2) a Q2 adjusted tax rate of 24.3% (as compared to our 21.6% estimate and consensus at 21.7%. The tax-rate difference cost Yum Brands about -4 cents in Q2 EPS, implying that Q2 EPS would have been only one cent short of consensus excluding this factor.

Taco Bell’s Mexican Pizza was on its menu from 1985-2020, and then unceremoniously dumped. It was officially brought back nationwide this past May 19th — 12 days ago — with early access provided to Taco Bell app users starting two days before that. It appears that Mexican Pizza has sold quite briskly over the last 12-14 days, with many Taco Bells already selling out of the menu item. 

KFC Europe looks like it is in the beginning stages of rolling out multiple plant-based “chicken” menu items to thousands of its restaurants there. The rollout appears to include chicken sandwiches, chicken tenders, chicken buckets, and chicken wraps (Twisters).

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.05. This was two cents above our $1.03 forecast, but two cents below sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.07.

Earlier today, master franchisee Yum China (YUMC; Not Rated) provided a business update in which it said that while its same-store sales were down by about -4% over January/February, they had “decreased approximately -20% year-over-year for the first two weeks of March” and were “still trending down in recent days.”

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.02, falling short of our $1.15 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.09.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $1.22, ahead of our $1.10 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.09. However, we calculate that: (1) pre-tax investment income of $52 million (“related to the change in fair value of our approximate 5% investment in Devyani International Limited, an entity that operates KFC and Pizza Hut franchised units in India that executed an initial public offering during the quarter”) added about +16 cents’ worth of EPS help, and (2) by our calculations, the Q3 adjusted tax rate of 18.9% added about +4 cents of EPS help (relative to our 21.5% forecast and consensus of 21.4%).

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.16, surpassing our $0.97 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.96. We attribute the EPS beat primarily to: (1) better-than-expected same-store sales at Taco Bell and KFC U.S., (2) leverage achieved due to sales strength, and (3) a better-than-anticipated adjusted tax rate of 20.0% (versus our 21.5% projection and consensus of 21.5%).

With this report, we boost our Q2E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +2 percentage points to +17% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +15.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +3% (consensus is at +2.5%).

Earlier today, Yum Brands hosted a virtual Analyst Meeting, focused on its KFC business. Management says that in terms of worldwide units, KFC is only about a third of the way to its potential; “we’ll be growing the brand for years.” As of the end of 2020, KFC had 25,000 units, so this statement implies a (very) long-term goal of roughly 75,000 KFC restaurants worldwide.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported Q1 EPS of $1.07. This was above our $0.89 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.87.

Yum Brands plans to release its Q1 2021 earnings before the market open on Wednesday, April 28th. How do YUM shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day of (for a before-the-market-open) or after (for an after-the-market-close) an earnings release?

With this report, we boost our Q1E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +1 percentage point to +7% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +5.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its samestore sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +13% (consensus is at +11.6%).

On January 6, 2020, Yum Brands announced its plan to acquire The Habit Burger Grill, which as of full-year 2019 was the 17th-largest burger concept in the U.S. (in terms of domestic systemwide sales, at $450+ million), and in the top 100 overall. The Habit Burger Grill is meaningfully smaller than Yum’s core brands of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. As such, the acquisition of Habit (which closed on March 18, 2020) suggests that: (1) Yum Brands may be generally acquisitive in the future (incidentally, in keeping with current general industry trends), and (2) it isn’t hesitant to make an acquisition that it believes will create shareholder value in the long term, even if the size of that acquisition isn’t all that large relative to its core brands today.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $1.15, above our $1.01 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.01. We calculate that the Q4 adjusted tax rate was approximately 8.5%, much more favorable than our 21.0% estimate and consensus of 20.8%. We further calculate that relative to our tax-rate projection, the actual adjusted Q4 tax rate added about +15 cents to Q4 adjusted EPS. Excluding this factor, Q4 adjusted EPS would have been closer to $1.00.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q4E to +2.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. We believe that October same-store sales were likely the best month of the quarter, while November was likely the worst month of the quarter. (As a reminder, we define “quick-service other” as all quick-service, excluding burger, pizza, and sandwich concepts.)

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E to +12.1%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. We believe that December same-store sales were likely the best month of the quarter, while October was helped by arguably the busiest Halloween ever for pizza delivery/carryout.

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $1.01, ahead of our $0.83 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.81. Third-quarter company-owned restaurant margins came to 17.9%, better than our 17.3% estimate and consensus of 16.1%. Taco Bell in particular generated very good restaurant-level margins (27.5% in Q3), although on today’s conference call management commented that over time margins should become more normalized as larger orders may become less of the overall sales mix.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3E to +4.3%. As a reminder, we define “quick-service other” as all quick-service concepts excluding the pizza, burger, and sandwich categories.

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q3E to +13.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September.

With this report, we introduce our quarterly EPS estimates for Yum Brands (YUM; Neutral, $96.15) for 2021E as follows:
Q1E: $0.84
Q2E: $0.90
Q3E: $1.00
Q4E: $1.16

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Neutral, $91.46) reported that its adjusted Q2 EPS came to $0.82, well ahead of our $0.55 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.57. The $0.82 figure included a +21 cent benefit related to Yum’s investment in Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated). Adjusted EPS would have been about $0.61 excluding the mark-to-market for this investment.

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Neutral, $94.25) filed an 8-K which included a business update. As a result, we raise our Q2E EPS estimate by +5 cents, to $0.55. Our full-year 2020E EPS forecast goes up by +10 cents, to $3.00. And, given this higher anticipated base of earnings coming off of this year, we raise our 2021E EPS projection by +5 cents, to $3.80.

Yum Brands (YUM; Neutral, $88.27) reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.64 — ahead of our $0.50 forecast, and a little short of sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.66. Yum notes that its investment in Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated) cost it -6 cents of EPS in Q1.

With this report, we change our rating on Yum Brands (YUM; $85.61) to Neutral (from Buy). This change largely reflects the following factors: (1) currencies that may work against Yum’s earnings over the remainder of 2020, (2) other costs that may creep up in Q2, (3) the possibility of store closures hurting Q2 by more than the Street anticipates, (4) possible same-store sales issues at Taco Bell, and (5) YUM shares’ +55% rise off of its 52-week low, which has allowed it to come within less than 50 cents of our $86 target price (which we now move to “NA” with this report. We note the following:

We lower our worldwide aggregate same-store sales estimates for Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -8 percentage points to -8%
Q2E 2020: down by -23 percentage points to -23%
Q3E 2020: down by -15 percentage points to -13%
Q4E 2020: down by -7 percentage points to -5%
Full-year 2020E: down by -14 percentage points to -13%
Full-year 2021E: up by +5 percentage points to +7%

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.00 — which included a -$0.05 hit related to the mark-to-market adjustment for Yum’s investment in Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated). Excluding this GRUB-related adjustment, adjusted EPS would have been $1.05 — still short of our $1.14 forecast and $1.13 sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix).

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.80 — which included a -$0.15 hit related to the mark-to-market adjustment for Yum’s investment in Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated). Excluding this GRUB-related adjustment, EPS would have been $0.95, matching our $0.95 forecast, although a penny shy of the sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of 0.96.

We maintain our Buy rating on YUM and note the following:

Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.93, topping our $0.89 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.87. Yum’s updating of its fair value of its investment in Grubhub (GRUB; Not Rated) added $0.06 to Q2 EPS, but we’d also note that the Q2 adjusted tax rate of 23.7% hampered EPS by $0.03 according to our math relative to our 20.6% projection (and consensus of 20.6%). Second-quarter restaurant-level margins for company-owned stores matched our forecast.

Ahead of Yum Brands’ (YUM; Buy) second-quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Thursday, August 1st, we raise our Q2 EPS estimate by $0.01 to $0.89, placing us two cents above sell-side consensus according to Consensus Metrix. Our EPS estimate increase is driven by (1) an update to our Q2E Taco Bell same-store sales projection to +5% (which places us as tied for the high on the sell-side in this respect), from our prior +4%, and versus consensus of +3.7% (please keep in mind that Yum Brands does not report its same-store sales out past the decimal point), and (2) taking up our worldwide Q2E KFC same-store sales estimate to +4% (from +3%).