By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 26, 2018 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E from +0.3% to +1.2%. This 90 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance so far for this segment during September and the first half of October.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 11, 2018 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q4E from +3.5% to +4.0%. This 50 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance so far for this segment during October. So far this year, October 2018 looks to have been roughly tied as the thirdbest month during 2018 so far for fast-casual segment same-store sales. (We point out that as regards Q4 and 2018 as a whole, we still have November and December to go, of course.)
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 6, 2018 at 12:00 AM
After today’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.20. This was below our $0.25 forecast and the sell-side consensus estimate (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.22. The company also updated its full-year 2018 EPS target range to $1.30-$1.60 (the previous target had been $1.30-$1.80). With the first three quarters of 2018 reported, and doing the math, the updated fullyear 2018 EPS target range implies a Q4 EPS target range of $0.01-$0.31. With the Q3 EPS miss, and us believing it prudent at this time to not be at the high end of this implied Q4 EPS target range, we lower our Q4 EPS estimate by $0.11, to $0.20 (from $0.31). This brings down our full-year 2018E EPS estimate by $0.16, to $1.49. Given this lower base of anticipated earnings coming off of this year, we also take down our 2019E EPS estimate by $0.05, to $1.45 (keeping in mind that earnings year-overyear in both Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 are likely to be down).
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