WEN Adjusting Estimates, and Dreaming of Ghirardelli Chocolate Sauce

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Based on our data-driven checks regarding Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) and the burger sector regarding December, we bump up our Q4E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s North America by +50 basis points to +0.5%. While we still believe Wendy’s had a rough go of it in November (our Wendy’s checks for November 2018 were the worst of any month since those we did for February 2012), December appeared to be a meaningful bounce-back month sequentially — better than we expected. Our Q4E EPS estimate remains at $0.15.

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DIN Updating our Q4E19 Same-Store Sales Forecast for IHOP

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 3, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Following our data-driven checks, we increase our Q4E 2018 same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +70 basis points, to a new “sell-side high” (according to Consensus Metrix data) of +2.0%. IHOP, the largest family dining concept in the U.S. as determined by domestic systemwide sales, likely benefited from family dining’s robust November 2018 (which will end up as either the best month or the secondbest month during 2018 for family-dining sector same-store sales) and strong start to December 2018.

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CAKE (Post-Call) Q3 Same-Store Sales a Little Less Fluffy Than Expected

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 30, 2018 at 12:00 AM

After Tuesday’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.62, ahead of our $0.57 forecast and the sell-side consensus of $0.58, as measured by Consensus Metrix. By our math, a lower-than-expected tax rate (5.9% actual vs. 12.9% forecasted) helped Q3 EPS by about $0.04-$0.05.

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