By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) planning to launch a nationwide breakfast business in Q1 2020, and aiming to generate $1 billion in annualized sales from this initiative fairly quickly, we thought it might be wise to examine exactly which restaurant concepts out there might be most at risk from share loss from Wendy’s breakfast launch — and to what (quantified) degree. In our view, the publicly-traded concepts most at risk include McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral), Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), and Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on September 9, 2019 at 12:00 AM
After today’s (Monday’s) market close, Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) announced it plans to launch breakfast nationwide during 2020 — and that as part of this, it’s lowering its financial targets for 2019, and removing its financial targets for 2020. The shares are down in after-market trading by about -5% as of this writing.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 7, 2018 at 12:00 AM
Please note that this report is best read in conjunction with the report we published yesterday, “WEN (Pre-Call): Q3 Same-Store Sales a Little Frosty.” (One correction we’d like to make about that report: our Q3E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s was actually +1.0%, not +1.5% — we had actually lowered our forecast to +1.0% in our October 4th report “WEN: Our Data-Driven Checks Regarding September Sales Suggest…” Note that this does not change the Kalinowski Forecast track record over Q2 2011-Q3 2018 of being within 100 basis points of the same-store sales number Wendy’s reports 70.0% of the time, and being within 200 basis points of the samestore sales number Wendy’s reports 96.7% of the time.)
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