Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 21, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we lower our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q2E by 40 basis points, to +1.9%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the first half of May 2019.

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DIN (Post-Call) Q1 Same-Store Sales Softness Leads Shares Lower Today

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.90, ahead of our $1.80 forecast and above sell-side consensus of $1.82.

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DIN Holy Cannoli (Pancakes) What We See Ahead of the Q1 Earnings Release

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Ahead of Dine Brands’ (DIN; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we lower our Q1E same-store sales forecast for IHOP by 50 basis points, to +2.5%. While a number at or near +2.5% would clearly still be good enough to outpace the family-dining sector average (including both publicly-traded and privately-held concepts), we are concerned about sector trends, and the possibility that this hints at a lack of near-term upside for IHOP in Q1. (FYI, our full-year 2019E and 2020E EPS projections of $7.05 and $8.65, respectively, remain unchanged with this report; please keep in mind that 2020 will benefit from an extra, 53rd week.)

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