By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 23, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 5, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today (Thursday, November 5th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for October 2020 was down by -7.5%, with same-store traffic down by -13.7%. The -7.5% figure is +60 basis points better than the September 2020 number of -8.1%, which was +420 basis points better than the August 2020 figure of -12.3%.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on October 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Dine Brands — parent company of the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant concepts — reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.80, coming in well ahead of our $0.22 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37. A lowerthan-expected Q3 tax rate helped EPS by roughly +20 cents; we look for the tax rate to be at (or near) 26% in 2021E, but for Q4E we now project a tax rate of 41%. (Management does not quantify what to expect for the Q4 2020 tax rate, but does say to “expect it to be significantly higher than the normal statutory rate… a very high effective tax rate. It is possible that even our updated 41.0% forecast might be too low.)
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