PZZA (Post-Call) Well Blow Me Down! April Same-Store Sales Strong 2 the Finish

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16) reported Q1 EPS of $0.15, short of our $0.40 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.41. However, the difference largely results from an accounting change in which “adjusted (non-GAAP) financial results… no longer present certain financial assistance provided to the North American system in the form of royalty relief and discretionary marketing fund investments as Special charges.” For Q1 2020, the impact to adjusted EPS from this change was -26 cents. In other words, excluding this change, Q1 EPS would have been $0.41 — one cent above our projection and matching consensus.

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The BlackBox Index for April 2019 Disappoints, But…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 9, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today (Thursday, May 9th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for April 2019 declined by -0.4%, with same-store traffic down by -3.5%. The -0.4% showing for April 2019 marks the second-worst showing of the last 12 months, and marks meaningful sequential deceleration from the +1.2% figure attained in March 2019.

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April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM

In our April 8th report “Tidbits re: Burger-Sector Same-Store Sales Trends, and SBUX,” we noted that “With March 2019 now in the rear-view mirror, we are pleasantly surprised that this month appears to have turned out very well for burger-sector same-store sales. In fact, based on our proprietary, data-driven checks, the midsingle digit number put up by U.S. quick-service burger chains for March 2019 looks like the best month in this regard since February 2016, for which some concepts (depending on their accounting methodologies) were helped by that month’s extra Leap Day.”

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