PZZA (Post-Call) A Shaq-tastic Q2 and July

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $99.14) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.48, coming in meaningfully above our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.44. We had been concerned that costs related to franchisee assistance — which amounted to a -$0.12 hit in Q2 — would hold back Q2 earnings, but the strength of the business (North American same-store sales up a previously-announced +28.0%) more than made up for this. Built into our Q2E estimate heading into today was an EPS hit of -18 cents related to franchisee assistance, so even specific to Q2, this came in +6 cents better than we expected.

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PZZA Adjusting Q2E-Q3E EPS Estimates a Little More

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16), we adjusted our 2020E EPS estimate downward by -40 cents to $1.15, reflecting: (1) a -50 cent hit for Q1A-Q3E adjustments to how Papa John’s records franchisee financial assistance (related to royalty relief and the discretionary marketing fund), with -26 cents of this having taken place in Q1, and our estimate of -12 cent hits each to Q2E and Q3E, and (2) +10 cents reflecting better-than-expected April North American same-store sales trends and the momentum resulting from this.

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