By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 29, 2021 at 1:14 PM
Earlier today, Domino’s reported Q1 EPS of $3.00. This was higher than our $2.95 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.94. We attribute the EPS outperformance to better-than-expected same-store sales in both the U.S. and International business segments.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 5, 2021 at 4:54 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s by +150 basis points, to +11.5%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +10.0%.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 1, 2021 at 4:57 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this mid-to-late March surge appear to include: (1) consumer-related stimulus spending, (2) growing consumer optimism as more folks get vaccinated for Covid-19, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery, including for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) and Wingstop (WING; Not Rated).
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