By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Given our latest data-driven checks, we raise our Q2E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. by 60 basis points, to +4.6%, placing us 60 basis points above consensus (according to Consensus Metrix data) and also as the second-highest forecast in this regard on the sell-side. We believe McDonald’s continues to benefit for a number of reasons, some of which we pointed to in our May 6th report “April Burger-Sector Sales Trends Compared to March…” — we encourage you to read that report if you have not yet done so.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 7, 2019 at 12:00 AM
After Tuesday’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.31, surpassing our $0.24 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.24. We attribute the earnings outperformance primarily to better-than-expected Domestic Company-Owned Restaurant Expenses/Domestic Company-Owned Restaurant Sales (33.4% actual vs. 35.5% projected).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on our latest proprietary, data-driven checks, and what appears to have been a better-than-expected March, we tweak our full-Q1E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. business upward by +20 basis points, to +3.2%. This places us 30 basis points above the current sell-side consensus of +2.9%. In March, we believe core menu items — including fresh-beef Quarter Pounders (both with and without bacon) — sold quite well. Toward the end of March, McDonald’s U.S. began promoting a Quarter Pounder with Cheese Deluxe (as well as the Quarter Pounder with Cheese Bacon). One aspect we like of these burgers is that they are relatively simple operationally, with (for example) SKUs that are already found in the restaurants.
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