Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Fast-Casual Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 12, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3E to +3.6%. While the overall number for the fast-casual sector is in positive territory for Q3, there is a wide variety of performances in terms of same-store sales by individual brand. Wingstop (WING; Not Rated) has already reported +25.4% same-store sales growth for its Q3, and we would not be surprised to see Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) exceed sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +6.4% when it reports its Q3 results on after the market close on Wednesday, October 21st.

Restaurants The BlackBox Index for September 2020 Shows More Rebound

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 8, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today (Thursday, October 8th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for September 2020 was down by -8.1%, with same-store traffic down by -14.6%. The -8.1% figure is +420 basis points better than the August 2020 number of -12.3%, which itself was +280 basis points better than the July 2020 number of -15.1%.

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 7, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3E to -19.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Our implied numbers for these three months are about -24%, -19%, and -16%, respectively.