DIN (Post-Call): Sales Recovering Despite IHOP Turning Adam Sandler Away

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on May 5, 2021 at 1:22 PM

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $1.75, well above our $0.80 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.87. We attribute the EPS outperformance relative to our forecast to: (1) a much more favorable tax rate than projection (-6.6% actual vs. 25.0% projected); this helped Q1 EPS by about +46 cents, (2) better-than-expected Cost of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues as a percentage of Franchise and Restaurant Revenues (47.9% actual vs. 51.8% estimated), (3) more favorable than anticipated G&A/Revenue (19.5% actual vs. 20.6% forecasted), and (4) same-store sales than beat expectations for both Applebee’s U.S. and IHOP U.S.

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 7, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q3E to -19.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July, August, and September. Our implied numbers for these three months are about -24%, -19%, and -16%, respectively.

DIN A Closer Look at Neighborhood Wings by Applebees

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Given the potential for the “Neighborhood Wings by Applebee’s” brand (and potentially other virtual brands to be launched in the future by Applebee’s parent company Dine Brands?), we raise our full-year 2021E EPS estimate by +20 cents, to $5.00. This places us above current sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $4.83.