By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) planning to launch a nationwide breakfast business in Q1 2020, and aiming to generate $1 billion in annualized sales from this initiative fairly quickly, we thought it might be wise to examine exactly which restaurant concepts out there might be most at risk from share loss from Wendy’s breakfast launch — and to what (quantified) degree. In our view, the publicly-traded concepts most at risk include McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral), Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), and Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 13, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E by +100 basis points to +3.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 8, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) reported adjusted EPS of $0.14, surpassing our $0.11 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.11. Relative to our model, outperformance came from: (1) better-than-expected G&A/Revenues (12.1% actual vs. 12.7% estimated), (2) better-than-expected Cost of Sales/Sales (85.0% actual vs. 85.8% forecasted), (3) lower-than-projected Interest Expense ($29.1 million actual vs. $30.1 million projected), and (4) a somewhat more favorable tax rate than anticipated (20.0% actual vs. 22.5% forecasted). These positives were partially offset by some other factors, such as higher-than-anticipated Other Operating Expenses.
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