By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 13, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q2E by +100 basis points to +3.3%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 30, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported its Q1 EPS of $1.72, above our $1.71 forecast, but below the sell-side consensus of $1.75. But the real story is that U.S. same-store sales rose by an unexpectedly robust +4.5%, easily surpassing our above-consensus +3.2% projection. McDonald’s attributes the strong showing to “successful promotions, including the Bacon Event, the 2 for $5 Mix and Match deal, and Donut Sticks, as well as a net positive impact from our Experience of the Future deployment.” On this latter front, management noted on today’s conference call that this is the first time ever that it can make this statement. We look for this effect to continue in coming quarters.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM
So far this year, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. same-store sales seem to be meaningfully outpacing those of its quick-service burger rivals. Why is this? How sustainable is it? While there are multiple reasons for McDonald’s success so far this year — for example, we believe fresh-beef Quarter Pounders and Quarter Pounder line extensions have sold rather well — this report focuses on improvements that we believe have been made in terms of average speed at the drive-thru. We believe there is room for significant improvement on this front, those improvements have started, and there’s plenty more to be had over time — all of which is good news for future same-store sales trends. We reiterate our Buy rating on MCD and note the following:
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