Quick-Service/Fast-Casual: 2-Year Average Check Gain Holds Mostly Steady in May

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 3, 2021 at 9:12 PM

May 2021 was the second full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

SBUX: How Does Starbucks Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 14, 2021 at 4:40 PM

Starbucks plans to release its fiscal Q2 (calendar Q1) 2021 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, April 27th. How do SBUX shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day after an earnings release?

DIN: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts for IHOP

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 7, 2021 at 4:02 PM

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +600 basis points, to -5.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -9.9%. Our increased forecast represents (inter-related) factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year family dining sector sales trends, (2) benefits from stimulus-related consumer spending in March, and (3) “spring fever” perhaps finding itself a little more in bloom than usual amongst consumers this time of the year, given all that has been battled over the last 12+ months.