Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s (Updated)

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 16, 2021 at 4:59 PM

In December, we published a report — “Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s” — in which we noted that Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen would lap highly challenging same-store sales comparisons before Domino’s and Papa John’s would, and how Popeyes performed might have some lessons for these pizza players. Since then, Popeyes’ parent company Restaurant Brands International (QSR; Not Rated) reported that Popeyes’ Q4 2020 U.S. same-store sales declined by -6.4%. This, of course, lapped Popeyes’ Q4 2019 U.S. same-store sales advance of +37.9% — the best quarter for any publicly-traded restaurant concept of meaningful size of which we are aware.

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DPZ: How Does Domino’s Stock Trade Heading Into, and During, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 9, 2021 at 2:54 PM

Domino’s plans to release its Q4 2020 earnings before the market open on Thursday, February 25th. How do DPZ shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and on the day of an earnings release?

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DENN: Updating Our Stock Rating and EPS Projections

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 8, 2021 at 2:57 PM

With this note, we change our rating on Denny’s (DENN; $17.41) to Neutral (from Buy). This change reflects: (1) lowered EPS estimates for 2021E and 2022E, and (2) a reduced same-store sales forecast for Q1E 2021, despite what appears to be some meaningful help from a calendar-shift effect related to Denny’s 2020 being a 53-week fiscal year, and (3) being mindful of DENN shares’ run-up from their 52-week low of $4.50 (intraday March 19, 2020) to $17.41 as of this past Friday’s market close. (FYI, the stock is also up +18.6% year-to-date.)

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