DIN Holy Cannoli (Pancakes) What We See Ahead of the Q1 Earnings Release

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Ahead of Dine Brands’ (DIN; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we lower our Q1E same-store sales forecast for IHOP by 50 basis points, to +2.5%. While a number at or near +2.5% would clearly still be good enough to outpace the family-dining sector average (including both publicly-traded and privately-held concepts), we are concerned about sector trends, and the possibility that this hints at a lack of near-term upside for IHOP in Q1. (FYI, our full-year 2019E and 2020E EPS projections of $7.05 and $8.65, respectively, remain unchanged with this report; please keep in mind that 2020 will benefit from an extra, 53rd week.)

Introducing our Q1E19 Kalinowski Casual Dining Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we introduce our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E at +1.9%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards samestore sales performance for this segment during January 2019 and most of February 2019.

DIN Which Way are the Winds a-Blowin’ at Applebee’s

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Following our data-driven checks regarding Applebee’s, we increase our Q4E 2018 same-store sales projection for that brand by +80 basis points, to a new “sell-side high” of +4.0%. We believe that Applebee’s — the nation’s largest casual dining concept, as measured by domestic systemwide sales — in particular enjoyed a solid December, during which time the Neighborhood Drink of the Month was the Dollar Jolly (lapping December 2017’s $1 Long Island Iced Teas), as well as a successful November (which featured $2 Bud Lights — Dilly! Dilly! — as compared to no nationwide drink special during November 2017; also, Bigger, Bolder Grill Combos were brought back as a featured promotion in mid-November 2018).