Looking to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 1, 2021 at 9:19 PM

Over the last six months, have published multiple reports suggesting that to learn how Domino’s and Papa John’s might lap very challenging same-store sales comparisons over Q2 2021-Q1 2022, keep an eye on Popeyes — and how Popeyes is lapping its highly challenging same-store sales comparisons during Q4 2020-Q3 2021. Our bottom line remains that Domino’s and Papa John’s could end up lapping these tough numbers better than the Street anticipates. This report updates our thoughts in that regard.

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DPZ Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM

We adjust our U.S. blended (company-owned and franchised combined) same-store sales estimates for Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -190 basis points to an actual of +1.6%
Q2E 2020: down by -240 basis points to +0.6%
Q3E 2020: down by -190 basis points to +2.1%
Q4E 2020: stays at +3.5%
Full-year 2020E: down by -170 basis points to +2.0%
Full-year 2021E: up by +50 basis points to +3.5%

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