CAKE (Post-Call): Off-Premise Holding In as Guests Re-Enter Dining Rooms

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 28, 2021 at 1:03 PM

After Wednesday’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory reported adjusted Q1 EPS of +$0.20. This surpassed our +$0.05 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.07. Factors behind the outperformance relative to our forecast include: (1) Cost of Sales/Revenues (21.7% actual vs. 22.7% forecasted), (2) Labor Expenses/Revenues (36.6% actual vs. 37.7% projected, and (3) D&A/Revenues (3.5% actual vs. 3.8% estimated), partially offset by (1) Other Operating Expenses/ Revenues (28.2% actual vs. 27.7% forecasted), and (2) G&A/Revenues (7.1% actual vs. 6.8% forecasted).

How Different Restaurant Stocks Trade Ahead of, and After, Earnings

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 19, 2021 at 5:14 PM

We recently published a series of reports examining how various restaurant stocks
have traded in the week leading up to, and immediately after, their last 24 quarterly
earnings releases. This report summarizes the trends we found.

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 24, 2021 at 4:22 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E to -1.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -19%, -20%, and +45%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to +1.7%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)