Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Fine Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 22, 2021 at 4:40 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fine Dining Index for Q1E to -12.0%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -35%, -22%, and +35%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to -7.3%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)

CAKE: How Does Cheesecake Factory Trade Heading Into, and After, Earnings?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 17, 2021 at 4:44 PM

The Cheesecake Factory likely will release its Q1 2021 earnings in late April or early May. How do CAKE shares tend to trade heading into earnings, and the day after an earnings release?

Restaurants: Key Info for Accurately Calculating Two-Year Same-Store Sales

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 15, 2021 at 4:31 PM

Normally, when looking at two-year same-store sales trends, the magnitude of the numbers involved is so low that the two-year rate is calculated by just adding the two years together. The “errors” this simple method produces are negligible. For example, a concept that generates +5.0% same-store sales in the year-ago period, and -5.0% same-store sales in the current period, would have a simple-method two-year number of 0.0%. But the actual math works out to a two-year figure of -0.3%, because the base in the current period is +5.0% larger than what it was in the year-ago period.