After today’s (Wednesday’s) market close, The Cheesecake Factory reported adjusted Q4 EPS of -$0.32, below our +$0.06 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.02.
In a document dated January 28th filed with the SEC, privately-held Roark Capital indicates that it plans to raise $5 billion for its latest fund, Roark Capital Partners VI (T) LP. Roark already owns 20+ restaurant concepts, and that excludes its strategic investment in The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral, $44.97). What restaurant concept or concepts might Roark acquire next?
About six months ago, we published a report examining market-share opportunities within the casual dining sector. In this report, we update our numbers. One of the important changes is that we now look for 8%-20% of the casual dining restaurants in the U.S. that were in operation as of the start of 2020 to be closed permanently by the end of March 2021. (Previously, we were looking for 3%-15% of casual dining restaurants to be closed permanently by the end of December 2020.) Keep in mind that we expect these closures to be heavily weighted toward independents/momand-pops and, to a somewhat lesser degree, smaller (privately-held in nearly all cases) restaurant chains.