By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on June 7, 2021 at 9:05 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2E to +32.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -10.7% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2E is at +18.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 1, 2021 at 4:57 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this mid-to-late March surge appear to include: (1) consumer-related stimulus spending, (2) growing consumer optimism as more folks get vaccinated for Covid-19, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery, including for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) and Wingstop (WING; Not Rated).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on October 12, 2020 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3E to +3.6%. While the overall number for the fast-casual sector is in positive territory for Q3, there is a wide variety of performances in terms of same-store sales by individual brand. Wingstop (WING; Not Rated) has already reported +25.4% same-store sales growth for its Q3, and we would not be surprised to see Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) exceed sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +6.4% when it reports its Q3 results on after the market close on Wednesday, October 21st.
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