Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on June 4, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2E to +3.0% (up from +2.5% previously). This increase reflects update to various indices we have made over the last 2-3 weeks, most recently a second intra-quarter bump up to our Kalinowski Family Dining Index. We now look for the Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index — which aggregates the domestic same-store sales for 48 publicly-traded restaurant concepts, and weights them based on those concepts’ U.S. systemwide sales — to be the best in Q2 2019 since Q4 2015. Our Buy-rated stocks remain Denny’s (DENN), Dine Brands (DIN), Domino’s (DPZ), McDonald’s (MCD), Papa John’s (PZZA), and Yum Brands (YUM). As of this writing we are most confident about our above-consensus Q2E same-store sales forecasts for Denny’s, IHOP (owned by Dine Brands), and McDonald’s U.S.

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The Outlook for the Top 25 Fast-Casual Concepts in the U.S.

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 17, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Of the large sectors of the U.S. restaurant industry (quick-service, fast-casual, midscale/family dining, casual dining, and fine dining), the fastest-growing one yearin and year-out continues to be the fast-casual sector. In 2018, the fast-casual segment’s sales rose by +7.6% to $55.4 billion, now representing about 10% of the U.S. restaurant industry’s $556.4 billion in total sales. For 2019, Technomic projects that the fast-casual sector will expand by +7.3%, greater than its forecasted growth rate of +3.9% for the restaurant industry as a whole. In our view, fast-casual’s growth will continue to outpace that of the industry for years to come, due to the quality of the food offerings, the speed of service, and the relative discount that guests enjoy relative to much of full-service dining. That said, as the data in this report shows, the rising fast-casual tide is NOT lifting all boats, and we do not expect that to be the case going forward. Individual concepts and their various attributes (including the management of those concepts) continues to matter greatly. We note the following:

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Tidbits re PZZA, Top 25 Restaurant Chains, BLMN, and Luckin Coffee

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), the top 25 restaurant concepts in the U.S. (as measured by domestic systemwide sales), Outback Steakhouse (owned by Bloomin’ Brands [BLMN; Not Rated]), and privatelyheld Luckin Coffee:

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