By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 4, 2021 at 12:00 AM
Given greater-than-expected deceleration in same-store sales trends for the U.S. family dining sector during December, we reduce our Q4E Denny’s U.S. same-store sales projection by -400 basis points, to -32.0%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this places us as the low estimate on the sell-side in this regard. As of this writing, sell-side consensus is at -23.9%.
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on December 14, 2020 at 12:00 AM
About six months ago, we published a report examining market-share opportunities within the family dining sector. In this report, we update our numbers. One of the important changes is that we now look for 10%-25% of the family dining restaurants in the U.S. that were in operation as of the start of 2020 to be closed permanently by the end of March 2021. (Previously, we were looking for 5%-10% of family dining restaurants to be closed permanently by the end of December 2020.) Keep in mind that we expect these closures to be heavily weighted toward independents/momand-pops and, to a somewhat lesser degree, smaller (privately-held in nearly all cases) restaurant chains.
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on December 3, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today (Thursday, December 3rd), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for November 2020 was down by -10.3%, with same-store traffic off by -16.3%. The -10.3% figure is -280 basis points worse than the -7.5% number for October 2020, and -220 basis points worse than the -8.1% figure for September 2020.
Read More
