Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.90, ahead of our $1.80 forecast and above sell-side consensus of $1.82.
Ahead of Dine Brands’ (DIN; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we lower our Q1E same-store sales forecast for IHOP by 50 basis points, to +2.5%. While a number at or near +2.5% would clearly still be good enough to outpace the family-dining sector average (including both publicly-traded and privately-held concepts), we are concerned about sector trends, and the possibility that this hints at a lack of near-term upside for IHOP in Q1. (FYI, our full-year 2019E and 2020E EPS projections of $7.05 and $8.65, respectively, remain unchanged with this report; please keep in mind that 2020 will benefit from an extra, 53rd week.)
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1E to +2.2% (down from +2.8% previously). Our updated figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the second half of February 2019 and all of March 2019.