Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral) reported Q3 EPS of $2.05, a little short of our $2.09 forecast and sell-side consensus of $2.07. Tax rate (21.7% actual vs. our 20.0% projection) accounts for the difference between our EPS estimate and the actual.
With this report, we introduce our quarterly EPS estimates for 2020E for Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral) as follows: (1) Q1E $2.40, (2) Q2E $2.32, (3) Q3E $2.40, and (4) Q4E $3.58. These quarterlies sum to our unchanged full-year 2020E EPS forecast of $10.70. Please keep in mind that 2020 is a 53-week fiscal year for Domino’s.
With this report, we downgrade the shares of Domino’s (DPZ) to Neutral (from Buy). Our downgrade reflects (1) growing concerns that over the next 12-18 months, competition from third-party delivery aggregators will have a larger (i.e., worse) effect on Domino’s U.S. same-store sales than they did over the last 12-18 months, (2) our worries that the law of large numbers may have finally caught up with Domino’s U.S. following the annual +5.4% to +12.0% same-store sales gains of 2013-18, (3) rising competition from the leading fast-casual pizza concepts, particularly privately-held Blaze Pizza, whose co-founder Rick Wetzel comments “There’s a huge opportunity to go at Domino’s in particular,” and (4) the possibility of a reinvigorated Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) down the road, given that concept’s recent hire of a new “change agent” CEO.