Updating our Q2E19 Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 14, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q2E by +40 basis points, to +1.7%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April 2019 and the beginning of May 2019.

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DPZ (Post-Call) Investors Getting Used to Domino’s New Normal

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) reported Q1 EPS of $2.20, ahead of our $2.10 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.09. The Q1 tax rate came in at 15.1%, more favorable than our 20.5% estimate (and 20.5% consensus). By our math, had the Q1 actual tax rate been 20.5%, then all else equal, Q1 EPS would have been $2.06.

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DPZ The Night King Commands Us to Update Our Forecasts Ahead of the Q1 Release

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Ahead of Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) first quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, April 24th, we raise our Q1 U.S. (blended) samestore sales forecast by +160 basis points, to +4.5%. Based on our checks, we believe that Domino’s latest ad campaign — centered around “Points for Pies” — has been successful. Consumers apparently have responded well to the aspect of this that points can be earned from “eating any pizza you love, from anywhere. Yep, even if it’s not Domino’s.” Of course, many of the things that Domino’s has done well for years — an improved core product, technological excellence, the “Piece of the Pie Rewards” loyalty program, etc. — are all playing an integrated role in what appears to have been another successful quarter for the brand.

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