DNKN Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM

We lower our U.S. same-store sales estimates for Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -5.5 percentage points to -3.5%
Q2E 2020: down by -32.0 percentage points to -30.0%
Q3E 2020: down by -17.0 percentage points to -15.0%
Q4E 2020: down by -11.5 percentage points to -10.0%
Full-year 2020E: down by -16.5 percentage points to -14.6%
Full-year 2021E: up by +6.5 percentage points to +8.0%

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MCD Efforts to Speed Up the Drive-Thru Already Paying Off

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM

So far this year, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. same-store sales seem to be meaningfully outpacing those of its quick-service burger rivals. Why is this? How sustainable is it? While there are multiple reasons for McDonald’s success so far this year — for example, we believe fresh-beef Quarter Pounders and Quarter Pounder line extensions have sold rather well — this report focuses on improvements that we believe have been made in terms of average speed at the drive-thru. We believe there is room for significant improvement on this front, those improvements have started, and there’s plenty more to be had over time — all of which is good news for future same-store sales trends. We reiterate our Buy rating on MCD and note the following:

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