WEN What Concepts Might Wendy’s Take Breakfast Share from in 2020

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) planning to launch a nationwide breakfast business in Q1 2020, and aiming to generate $1 billion in annualized sales from this initiative fairly quickly, we thought it might be wise to examine exactly which restaurant concepts out there might be most at risk from share loss from Wendy’s breakfast launch — and to what (quantified) degree. In our view, the publicly-traded concepts most at risk include McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral), Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), and Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]).

DNKN (Post-Call) Not Spooked by a Favorable Q3 Tax Rate

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.90, surpassing our $0.81 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.81. We attribute about $0.06-$0.07 of the EPS beat to a better-than-expected adjusted tax rate (21.9% actual vs. 27.7% forecasted and 27.8% consensus).

DNKN Updating Introducing Some EPS Estimates Highlighting Some Test Beverages

By Mark Kalinowski Published on September 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we introduce our quarterly EPS estimates for 2020E for Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral). They are as follows: (1) Q1E $0.70, (2) Q2E $0.91, (3) Q3E $0.88, and (4) Q4E $0.78. These quarterlies sum to our unchanged full-year 2020E EPS forecast of $3.27, which lies two cents above sell-side consensus of $3.25 (according to data from Consensus Metrix).