By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we retain our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast at +3.2%. In the previous 80 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 73 times (91.3% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 56 times (70.0% of the time).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
After Thursday’s market close, Starbucks (SBUX; Neutral) reported adjusted fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.60, surpassing our $0.57 forecast and the sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The company also raises its target range for full-fiscal 2019 EPS to $2.75-$2.79 (from $2.68-$2.73 previously, an increase of $0.07 at the low end of the range and an increase of $0.06 at the high end of the range). Management attributes the improved outlook as follows: (1) two-thirds to an improved tax-rate outlook, and (2) one-third to a better outlook for Americas’ operating margins.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of Yum Brands’ (YUM; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we look at a key positive and a key risk surrounding YUM. Most importantly on the positive side of the ledger, based on our data-driven checks, we raise our Q1 same-store sales forecast for Taco Bell by one percentage point, to +5%, as we believe that brand’s momentum, innovation, and differentiation continue to pay off. Promotions during various parts of the first quarter included Steak Rattlesnake Fries, the Steak Rattlesnake Burrito, the return of the Naked Chicken Chalupa, and the return of Nacho Fries. Our Q2E same-store sales forecast is also boosted by one percentage point, to +4%, and that is not a bestcase scenario if the second quarter trends well. We’ll see…
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